Thurston and Bowen should have been rested
By ScottWoodward.me, 4 Sep 2012 ScottWoodward.me is a Roar Guru
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If history dictates that the Cowboys cannot win the premiership this year due to them being out of the top four, then Coach Neil Henry almost delivered confirmation when he stupidly elected to play champion five-eighth Jonathan Thurston in a meaningless game and risk injury.
The Cowboys are considered a 12/1 chance of winning the grand final this year, but those odds would have tumbled to 50/1 had Thurston – or star fullback Matt Bowen – been injured.
Henry’s justification was that it is good to keep the same team and maintain momentum. We all agree with those thoughts, but it is meaningless if the rudder falls off the boat.
The Cowboys would have finished fifth regardless of the result against the Sharks so the reward for playing their stars was limited. The potential downside was monumental and it was a risk that did not have to be taken.
Cowboys fans and Chairman Laurence Lancini should be asking why the coach and CEO Peter Jourdain put the entire house at risk when they did not have to.
With four minutes remaining on Sunday the Sharks Ben Pomeroy caused many North Queenslanders heart to miss a beat when the unthinkable happened.
Thurston was down for the count and the hit was that ferocious that it could have been a broken jaw or yet another shoulder dislocation.
Thankfully, the man widely regarded as the world’s best rugby league player got up and walked off seemingly unscathed.
Why did Thurston take the field? I feel that coach Neil Henry would have preferred to rest Thurston and Bowen, but the players wanted to have a run and what they want, they normally get.
Throughout the years, reports have come out that at the Cowboys, player power rules. Are the Cowboys stars so big that they can over-rule the coach and throw any logic out the window?
Either General Manager of Football Peter Parr, or former News Limited Exec Peter Jourdain, had a responsibility to step in and make a decision in the best interests of the club’s premiership chances.
Whoever made the decision to allow Thurston and Bowen to play should thank their lucky stars that they escaped injury.
The NRL has adopted the AFL finals system this season and no side has won a premiership from beyond the top four since the revamp of the final eight in 2000.
Only one team in AFL history (Adelaide, 1997) has won four finals straight to clinch a flag, so the odds are against the Cowboys.
However, the regular season is over. From here, there is only one thing the Cowboys can do – just keep winning.
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September 4th 2012 @ 7:34am
jdubya said | September 4th 2012 @ 7:34am | Report comment
What history mate? The last time we used this finals system teams from outside the 8 won.
I hope you aren’t referring to the AFL because they have less parity than the EPL.
September 4th 2012 @ 9:36am
ScottWoodward.me said | September 4th 2012 @ 9:36am | Report comment
jdubya
The NRL has adopted the AFL finals system this season and no side has won a premiership from beyond the top four since the revamp of the final eight in 2000.
Only one team in AFL history (Adelaide, 1997) has won four finals straight to clinch a flag, so the odds are against the Cowboys.
On top of that, the Cowboys only have a 10% winning record at ANZ and a 17% winning record in Sydney. Is that history good enough for you jdubya?
September 4th 2012 @ 12:35pm
Haz said | September 4th 2012 @ 12:35pm | Report comment
The old Australian Rugby League used this current system in 1995 and 1996.
In 1996, St George made the Grand Final from 7th place, and in 1995, Canterbury made the Grand Final from 6th place.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_ARL_season#Finals
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_ARL_season#Finals
September 4th 2012 @ 3:34pm
jdubya said | September 4th 2012 @ 3:34pm | Report comment
No. History in the NRL suggest that teams from outside the 8 can win and have under this finals system. Using the AFL as an example is flawed because they traditionally only have a handful of good teams capable of taking it out while the NRL has more parity.
Maybe a bit of research would have gone well with this article
September 4th 2012 @ 3:53pm
Desert Qlder said | September 4th 2012 @ 3:53pm | Report comment
Well said.
The constant deference to aussie rules by Rugby League ‘writers’ on this site is appalling and adds nothing to the arguments. they are vastly different competitions and outconmes are decided by innumerable different factors.
September 4th 2012 @ 7:35am
eagleJack said | September 4th 2012 @ 7:35am | Report comment
Professional sport is as much mental as it is physical. The Cowboys would have been well aware of the stat doing the rounds that they had only won 3 games in Sydney since 2008 out of a possible 24 (13% win rate). They needed this win even if it had no bearing on their ladder finish. They would know that finishing fifth they will need to win 2 possibly 3 (if the Rabbits beat the Storm) games in Sydney to claim the premiership. Another loss to the Sharks would have psychologically damaged the team further for what is already a pretty big hurdle for them to get over.
However, once the game was in the bag I was surprised Thurton stayed on.
September 4th 2012 @ 5:54pm
Dave said | September 4th 2012 @ 5:54pm | Report comment
Going to have to agree with Eaglejack on this one over Scott. Since comparing sports is all the rage maybe we should just cast our eyes back to the Rugby World Cup. Dan Carter’s cup ended after he suffered a
freak injury during a kicking drill. Not playing is no guarantee of avoiding injury. However banishing some demons with regards to playing in Sydney will go along way to taking out the comp.
September 4th 2012 @ 9:40am
AGO74 said | September 4th 2012 @ 9:40am | Report comment
I don’t agree with this article that they should have been rested. Nor these constant comparisons with AFL history. AFL history is as relevant to the NRL as NRL history is to AFL.
September 4th 2012 @ 9:46am
ScottWoodward.me said | September 4th 2012 @ 9:46am | Report comment
AG
No stat is irrelevant. The Cows will likely have to win 3 games straight away at ANZ which stats say cannot be done.
The AFL history underlines how difficult it is to keep on winning away from home. It is no different in NRL.
My point of the story is that regardless of the history, the Cowboys still have a chance, but that chance would have dissappeared had Thurston got injured in a “nothing” game.
September 4th 2012 @ 10:03am
mushi said | September 4th 2012 @ 10:03am | Report comment
How do the stats say that it can’t be done?
September 4th 2012 @ 12:06pm
ScottWoodward.me said | September 4th 2012 @ 12:06pm | Report comment
mushi
see below.
It can be done but not likely.
September 4th 2012 @ 10:16am
AGO74 said | September 4th 2012 @ 10:16am | Report comment
Canterbury came from 6th in 1995 to win the comp. They also came from 9th in 1998 to make the GF. There are probably other examples but being a Dogs fan these are the one’s I am most familiar with. Stats at the time would have said there was no way either of those events could happen but they did. If it was all about stats, then the Cows would have lost to the Sharks on sunday.
September 4th 2012 @ 10:30am
mushi said | September 4th 2012 @ 10:30am | Report comment
No stats would have said it was unlikely, only someone who misinterprets the stats would say it couldn’t be done
September 4th 2012 @ 12:09pm
ScottWoodward.me said | September 4th 2012 @ 12:09pm | Report comment
mushi,
I am a Cowboy fan and think JT is the best player in the world and I have also had something on them at big odds early in the year, so I really wanted them to finish in the top 4 and I feel they would have had the coach played jason Taulmololo earlier.
They have a chance, but slim.
September 4th 2012 @ 12:05pm
ScottWoodward.me said | September 4th 2012 @ 12:05pm | Report comment
AG
Stats or Analytics is the process of obtaining an optimal and realistic decision based on existing data.
To simplify, that means that the Cowboys CAN win the competition, but is unlikely.
The information you have provided underlines that as you have had to go back 17 years, given the Cowboys long travel and poor ANZ record that makes it even more difficult.
September 4th 2012 @ 3:41pm
JazzyJase said | September 4th 2012 @ 3:41pm | Report comment
How does the home and away theory work in AFL when 2 Vic teams who share MCG / Etihad play against each other ?
Playing footy is all about Mabo, the constitution and the vibe….the vibe is that teams need to hit their straps this time of year, not be backing off and having a rest
September 4th 2012 @ 9:40am
ScottWoodward.me said | September 4th 2012 @ 9:40am | Report comment
eagleJack
There is a big difference between “psychologically damage” and having no chance at all.
4 mins from the end of that game, Thurston looked in all sorts, it was crazy.
He is the most competitive player in the NRL and it would have made no difference to his confidence if the played and were beaten without him and Bowen and maybe Tamou.
Not to mention the 6 hours in a plane and the stuffing around at airports when you are trying to recover.
Put it this way…the Broncos would have been very happy with what they did.
September 4th 2012 @ 9:56am
oikee said | September 4th 2012 @ 9:56am | Report comment
Yes Scott, you lose credibility if you try to compare NRL to AFL. Two totally different ballgames.
It is proven that resting players can backfire.
And the Cowboys need to win in Sydney, they achieved this as well.
I would say this game might be the kickstart the cows needed. Whoever they meet after this weekend will be a harder proposition, no good going in soft.
September 4th 2012 @ 12:55pm
NF said | September 4th 2012 @ 12:55pm | Report comment
oikee my fellow QLDer what do you think of Cowboys/Broncos elimination final in Townsville, it’s the hot ticket in town. I got mine can’t wait it be closer than people expect but Cows win I think 3-0 clean-sweep (2012).
September 4th 2012 @ 10:19am
ScottWoodward.me said | September 4th 2012 @ 10:19am | Report comment
oikee
No good going in without JT.
….and you CAN compare sports as it indicates the difficulty when using the same Finals system.
Fremantle had a good chance in the AFL and they also played in a meaningless game that they could have controlled and got a home game in perth.
Now they are playing in Melb without their best defender Luke McPharlin.
I call that poor management.
September 4th 2012 @ 3:22pm
Chop said | September 4th 2012 @ 3:22pm | Report comment
So you’re advocating tanking? Thankfully most teams have more respect for the game than you do, both in NRL and AFL.
I’m not sure why I put myself through reading your articles,
September 4th 2012 @ 10:29am
mushi said | September 4th 2012 @ 10:29am | Report comment
So let me get this straight you’ve already said time and time again that the probability of them winning it all is very low right?
But having a low probability of winning actually weighs in favour of risking injury as you are only move from a low probability outcome to zero weighed at the risk of injury.
So if their odds were around 8 percent then Thurston would need to have a rate of injury higher than every 8 games (which he doesn’t he’s more like one in 20 to 25 games) in order to not make the risk worthwhile for a 50/50 shot at say a 2% increase in overall chances due to momentum.
The thrust of your article should not be the risk they took, which you’ve inadvertently confirmed as being utterly immaterial (weighted somewhere in the vicinity of 0.8% to 0.6% for both combined), but whether there is any value to momentum and if the concept of form exists.
September 4th 2012 @ 12:15pm
ScottWoodward.me said | September 4th 2012 @ 12:15pm | Report comment
mushi
Have you been drinking?
The market has the Cowboys at 12.00 to win the GF which based on market value gives them a 12.33% chance. My entire point is that the % chance would have been close to zero had Thurston been injured and not got up when he was decked on the weekend.
I can understand players wanting to play and even the coach bending for them, but I cannot fathom how a General Manager or CEO can allow their Rolls Royce get smashed when the team did NOT have to win.
To me that is poor business management.
September 4th 2012 @ 1:10pm
mushi said | September 4th 2012 @ 1:10pm | Report comment
So you’ll give me 12:1 odds on something that happens 12.33% of the time.
So if we make this type of bet 100 times for one dollar a time you should end up taking from paying me $144 (rounding down to 12 successes) whilst I pay you my $100 outlay.
But then I’m apparently drunk thinking that 12:1 odds should reflect something that happens around 8% of the time.
How would that play out. Let us see. You come and bet with me 100 times and I pay you $96 whilst you pay me $100. So yes I am a dollar off as a 1.90 market should have the house netting $5 but hey I guess I’m not $49 in the hole.
September 5th 2012 @ 9:53am
mushi said | September 5th 2012 @ 9:53am | Report comment
You guys know that for under $20 Scott will teach you how to punt!
It’s criminal
September 4th 2012 @ 1:15pm
mushi said | September 4th 2012 @ 1:15pm | Report comment
See your regular gaffes with numbers would be funny except you actually charge people for your views on this stuff when you don’t even seem to have a grade 8 understanding of fractions
September 4th 2012 @ 10:33am
Skinnada said | September 4th 2012 @ 10:33am | Report comment
100% agree with you Scott! Absolutely no need to play their stars when the Cowboys were locked into 5th spot leading into the Sharks game. Crazy stuff!!
September 4th 2012 @ 12:20pm
ScottWoodward.me said | September 4th 2012 @ 12:20pm | Report comment
Skin
Thanks mate.
JT probably thinks he has a shot at the Dally M which would be another reason to play, but there is a wider good called THE team and this was the ideal time for a CEO or GM to step in.
I will just repeat that Fremantle have probably lost any chance they had to win the flag by playing and injuring their best defender on the weekend in a game they did not have to win.
DUMB!
September 4th 2012 @ 12:47pm
Shauno71 said | September 4th 2012 @ 12:47pm | Report comment
Do you really want to be entering the finals resting your best 2 players? It didn’t work for the Storm last year. Finals footy is about momentum & confidence. They probably could have brought them off with 15 to go. This article is way off.
September 4th 2012 @ 1:14pm
ScottWoodward.me said | September 4th 2012 @ 1:14pm | Report comment
Shauno
You would not have that view had JT stayed down and had to be carried off.
Ask the Freo fans how they feel now?
At least you concede they should have come off with 15 to go. My guess is if that had happened then the Sharks would have won which would have given the Cows the a double negative.
The Raiders looked morals one year and Tim Sheens played Ricky Stuart and kept him on when they held a huge lead. He was their rudder and only tactical kicker and guess what….he broke a leg with 10 mins to go and the Raiders who looked good things got eliminated the next week.
Shaun, in an ideal world you do want to have momentum, but THE most important thing is to have your best 17 fit, fresh and healthy and any management that can do that and does not is derelict in their duty in my opinion.
September 4th 2012 @ 1:54pm
Shauno71 said | September 4th 2012 @ 1:54pm | Report comment
Scott, I am a massive Cows fan but I think you need a bex & a good lie down.
September 4th 2012 @ 2:59pm
JazzyJase said | September 4th 2012 @ 2:59pm | Report comment
Don’t think any player would want a rest at this time of year (or any other time of year for that matter). Semi’s are about momentum, continued form and staying match conditioned.
At the end of the day, Neil Henry played his best squad and he is in the business of doing the best for his team to keep on winning
September 5th 2012 @ 12:45pm
mushi said | September 5th 2012 @ 12:45pm | Report comment
No most important thing is to maximise your chances.
September 7th 2012 @ 11:41am
Charles NSW said | September 7th 2012 @ 11:41am | Report comment
I understand your point of view and concerns Scott! However the coach has to make that decision on what is best for his team. Perhaps he felt that if he rested players like Thurston he would kill the momentum and the confidence of the team. Or perhaps he felt they need more game time to add polish to their set moves under pressure. Only a coach can make that call so it is hard to be critical unless you know all the facts. As you say to lose someone like Thurston in your team can be devastating, a hard call for the coach to make! In the back of my mind there was an incident involving Blocker Roach with Warren Ryan or Tim Sheens as coach where he gave him very little game time and they lost the semi or grand final. Then again it may have been something entirely different reason, so long ago.
September 4th 2012 @ 1:22pm
Gareth said | September 4th 2012 @ 1:22pm | Report comment
In any case, they’ve given the Raiders a leg up, which is a nice change from their usual form of inflicting crushing defeats on us regardless of when or where we play them.