Golden Rose: Preview, tips, live blog

 
Alfred Chan Roar Guru

By , 15 Sep 2012 Alfred Chan is a Roar Guru

Tagged:
 , , ,

    50 Have your say

    Golden Rose: Preview, tips, live blog + enlarge image

    Manawanui, ridden by Glyn Schofield, wins the 2011 Golden Rose at Rosehill, the first Group One race of the spring. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

    Sports Highlights
    Watch more sports news video


    Spring racing is in full swing this weekend with the season’s first group Group One race. The Golden Rose will be run at 4.00pm AEST. Join us on The Roar in the lead up to the race for full coverage and live blog.

    Run over 1400m at Rosehill Gardens by three year-olds at set weights, winners of this race tend to run well in the Melbourne 3yo events the Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas.

    Past winners have included Denman in 2009 before injury cruelled him just prior to his international debut. Toorak Toff took out this race in 2010 before going onto his second Group One victory in the Rupert Clarke Stakes a year later.

    Last year’s winner Manawanui introduced himself to the world when he won this race before a decorated Spring campaign where he clashed hooves with Helmet in the Caulfield guineas, running a gallant second.

    All three past winners have gone on to win over $1.2million in prize money.

    This year’s field has drawn limited runners due to trainer preferences to prepare their 3yo’s for runs in Melbourne.

    The field is dominated by one horse, boom filly Nechita who is all the rage and looks to be the one to beat.

    Let’s take a look at the field.

    1. Epaulette

    He ran on strongly in the Run to the Rose to run 2.5L behind Pierro who was carrying much more weight. His form as a 2yo suggests he can match it with Pierro but coming back as a 3yo, he has not shown the same promise.

    Looking at his sectionals in the Run to the Rose, this Commands colt stormed home strongly but was simply beaten by a classier horse. He’s a half brother to last year’s boom 3yo, Helmet and is a chance today.

    2. Amorino

    Out of Snitzel, this colt has two wins from six starts to his name but both of those have been in the lower grades. Recently he has been running with the highest echelon of juveniles but has not come close to them at the finishing post.

    He would ideally race on the pace but in his last two outings, he has not been able to get to the front early and has been forced to chase them down. He’s not as good of a sprinter yet as his pedigree suggests and he’ll need a few more runs to find his form.

    3. Your Song

    After a taxing winter campaign as a 2yo, this Fastnet Rock colt is the wet tracker of the field. With just one start on the dry land where he finished second to Pierro by 1.3L, he fought all the way to the line in the Run to the Rose.

    His sectionals have been good, and set weights here will play to his advantage. He’s got the best form in this field against Pierro, who the favourite Nechita, has not raced against. He’s one of the value runners in this race and will be right there at the post.

    4. Kabayan

    Gai Waterhouse has been praising this gelding nonstop who looks good for the VRC Derby over a further distance. He’ll be the second favourite but his run in the McNeil Stakes over 1200m was slow.

    In his second start this preparation, the extra 200m in this race will benefit him. He’s a chance in this but not as good of a chance as the bookies suggest. His priorities are the Caulfield Guineas and VRC Derby.

    5. Ninth Legion

    He ran well in the Run to the Rose but still finished fourth, 1L behind Your Song and Epaulette. He likes to run from the back of the field but he hasn’t shown the acceleration other horses in this field possess to suggest he’ll be able to run them down.

    His day will come but it won’t be today.

    6. Albrecht

    A last start winner in the Up and Coming Stakes, he beat home Tatra who won last weekend. By Redoute’s Choice, he’ll face a swing in weights from his last start where he carried little against the field.

    He’ll need to overcome the widest barrier and push to the front early to sit just off the leader, as he has done in the past when he has won. Roar contributor Cameron Rose has backed him to win.

    7. Ashokan

    He struggled in the Run to the Rose where he was harshly handicapped and will need a drastic improvement to figure in the places here.

    He’ll be the pacemaker of the field and should have no problem shooting to the front from his inside barrier. There are too many fast finishers in this field for me to back him.

    8. Shamexpress

    He ran behind Kabayan in his last start but trainer Danny O’Brien expects big things from his colt by O’Reilly. Earlier in the week, O’Brien payed the $50,000 late acceptance fee to get Shamexpress into the field so connections are confident he can win this.

    Although finishing behind Kabayan in his last start, he came home the better and the additional distance here will suit him. He’s raced successfully both on and off the pace but will be racing clockwise for the first time. He’ll finish strongly and is another one of the chances in this race.

    9. Doubtfilly

    She ran an impressive fourth in the Golden Slipper but has struggled since returning in the Spring. She ran a distant sixth last week against fillies of lesser quality than this field and has not found the form she had as a 2yo.

    She’ll be among the leaders as they turn the final bend but she hasn’t shown anything this preparation to suggest she’ll be able to fight off the latecomers.

    10. Nechita

    This Fastnet Rock filly is all the rage but this is the first time she has clashed with any of the horses in this field. She ran a different lead up to the Golden Rose than all the runners in this field so we have not seen her tested against her age group’s best yet.

    She’s had two runs for two commanding victories and has shown a sprint finish synonymous with her pedigree. A significant indicator of her talent is Patinack Farm’s decision not to run their other star 3yo, All Too Hard, in this race.

    Trainer John Thompson has flagged a spell for Nechita, stating she will only have one more run after this before returning to the paddock and bypassing the Melbourne Spring. With that in mind, she’ll give it everything she’s got today.

    There are a lot of question marks around the quality of opposition she has beaten so the bookies have her priced a bit too short for me, although I still think she’ll win. It just won’t be as comfortably as her last races.

    Tips: It’s too hard to go past Nechita. She’s been extremely impressive in her recent wins and this looks to be the pinnacle of her campaign. Your Song will run second for me. He’s got the good form against the best 3yo’s in the country and it could come down to a photo. I’ll throw Shamexpress in for third. His run to the post was blistering in his last start and he’ll be in the final wave of runners coming down the outside.

    1. Nechita
    2. Your Song
    3. Shamexpress
    4. Epaulette

    The Golden Rose will be run at 4.00pm AEST. Join us on The Roar in the lead up to the race for full coverage and live blog.