Why I can’t trust Nathan Tinkler’s Patinack Farm
By Alfred Chan, 17 Sep 2012 Alfred Chan is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- All Too Hard, Horse Racing, Nathan Tinkler, Nechita, Patinack Farm
Nathan Tinkler attends the 82nd National Yearling Sales at Karaka, Auckland. AAP Image/NZPA, Tim Hales
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Patinack Farm has a history of over-promising and under-delivering. It’s ingrained into how they prepare their horses.
No one will deny that Nechita was the weekend’s biggest disappointment in racing, if you ignore Camelot’s defeat in Ireland.
Entering the Golden Rose, the first group one of the season, Nechita was the short priced favourite to win over 1400m but was comfortably beaten by five other horses.
While I am guilty of buying into the filly after being seduced by her form and the surrounding hype, her defeat adds to a long string of Patinack Farm horses that fail in group one races after promising so much.
A few weeks ago, Roar racing expert Justin Cinque discussed Nechita’s credentials and it was concluded she has the rock solid pedigree for her to succeed at the highest level.
Despite her bloodline, her form leading into the Golden Rose had many questions hovering over it.
Most importantly, she had not run against the boys before, who had come into the Golden Rose via tougher races than Nechita.
Patinack Farm’s other superstar, All Too Hard, has hardly set the world on fire.
He is frequently published in newspapers as ‘Black Caviar’s little brother’ but most mainstream media leave out the fact that they have different sires.
Black Caviar is by Bel Esprit out of Helsinge while All Too Hard is by Casino Prince out of Helsinge.
Bel Esprit is becoming a champion sire now with plenty of top class sprinters across Australia. Her progeny include Bel Sprinter who was mighty impressive on the weekend and group one winner Bel Mer.
Casino Prince’s only group winner so far is All Too Hard who has won two group two events, both as a two year-old.
Casino Prince as a racehorse won one group one, the Chipping Norton Stakes over 1600m and ran second in the group one Caulfield Guineas.
Bel Esprit won the group one Blue Diamond, group one Doomben 10,000 and ran second in the group one Newmarket Handicap, group one Manikato Stakes, group one Caulfield Guineas and group Dubai Racing Club Cup.
Needless to say, Bel Esprit is far more credentialed.
All Too Hard is only a half brother to champion sprinter Black Caviar and their sires are vastly different. Still, Nathan Tinkler purchased All Too Hard for $1.025m.
Since his successful season as a 2 year-old, All Too Hard has run a distant third to Snitzerland and finished unplaced six lengths behind Pierro in the Run to the Rose.
The recent disappointments of Nechita and All Too Hard however, are nothing new for the Patinack Farm stable, led by trainer John Thompson.
Now standing at stud for the stable, Trusting contested many group one races over the past few years without ever winning any.
Instead, he won two group two events and placed in five group one races amassing just under $1 million in prize money, all without a group victory.
Monaco Consul is the stable’s most credentialed and promising stallion but we are yet to see any of his progeny race yet.
Based on the amount of money controversial mining magnate Nathan Tinkler has spent on his horse racing operations, Patinack Farm is one of the powerhouse stables across Australia with stalls in all the major racing cities.
Media outlets have reported that national operations cost Tinkler approximately $500,000 per week to run. Due to Tinkler’s recent financial struggles, 350 of his horses will be auctioned off at the coming Magic Millions auction later in the year.
Stable jockey Christian Reith is another concern. The 33 year-old hoop is yet to ride a group one winner and considering the amount of rides he gets, has been disappointing for Patinack Farm.
Tinkler’s approach to racing is one of the key factors in his stables failure. Horse racing is not about quick returns. It is about breeding the right combinations and recognising talent in young horses.
Tinkler has instead purchased in mass and hoped that a few of those will become superstars. The problem he has faced is that all horses are different. Some are excellent at the juvenile grades and struggle in their later years.
Others struggle in their early years but with the right persistence may flourish as five or six year-olds. Patinack Farm appears to have a methodical regime of training and from other horses I’ve observed, many appear overworked at young ages.
There is a lack of consistency in their race horses and their stallions are far from noteworthy. Tinkler has attempted to replicate the highly successful Darley stable and is failing.
A long line of seductive form, typified by disappointment was capped off on the weekend by Nechita’s shocking run in the Golden Rose.
Racing is not about quick returns and Nathan Tinkler/Patinack Farm is yet to suggest they believe otherwise.
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September 17th 2012 @ 11:06am
Rogue said | September 17th 2012 @ 11:06am | Report comment
I’ve followed racing for over thirty years and I’ve noticed that the biggest issue facing Patinack Farm is their breeding. Obviously there is far more money in the breeding industry than winning prize money but there are a ridiculous amount of Casino Prince horses mounting the blue and green silks. I’m not sure if anyone at the farm has noticed yet, but Casino Prince is a terrible stallion and they have wasted a ton of money having him breed their mares each season. Based on Tinkler’s failing mining projects I suspect he will be out of the prominent racing industry within a few years. I can see why FFA stripped him of his A-League license.
September 17th 2012 @ 3:24pm
Vic said | September 17th 2012 @ 3:24pm | Report comment
Didn’t the FFA talk him into taking the license back. That is a bit of a worry.
As far as I know with this Tinkler bloke, he has actually never dug up and sold a single block of coal or iron ore.
All fur coat and no knickers in other words.
The soccer blokes up in Newcastle better get organised to run this club themselves or they will only have a rugby league team. Maybe the AFL can get a side up there to give people a choice of sports.
September 17th 2012 @ 3:44pm
Alfred Chan said | September 17th 2012 @ 3:44pm | Report comment
Couldn’t agree more about Casino Prince. He’s one lucky horse to have studded so many failures. Patinack Farm does however have Monaco Consul and Trusting standing stud. They haven’t had any of their progeny race yet but could turn the corner for Tinkler. Monaco Consul is probably more promising. If you go through the websites of all the major studs, you’ll notice that the stud fee of Patinack Farm’s stallions are near the lowest in the country. Coolmore and Darley however have much higher fees but it’s reflected in their progeny. Stallions Helmet and Sepoy who are just entering stud are priced relatively low so if anyone has a spare hundred thousand to throw around, they may be worth a gamble ahead of the Patinack Farm studs.
September 17th 2012 @ 12:41pm
Marto said | September 17th 2012 @ 12:41pm | Report comment
Facts straight Rogue. The Big Fella wasn’t stripped of his A-League license by FFA. You’re thinking of that Clive Palmer. Otherwise, I agree with what you say. At least Casino Prince has a smile on his dial!
September 17th 2012 @ 1:50pm
Rogue said | September 17th 2012 @ 1:50pm | Report comment
I stand corrected. It was indeed Clive Palmer who had his A-League license stripped. Nathan Tinkler handed his in voluntarily.
September 24th 2012 @ 1:21pm
Ian Whitchurch said | September 24th 2012 @ 1:21pm | Report comment
Rogue,
More to the point, the old Newcastle Knights board ensured the cash to back their club was put safely in a trust account.
The Newcastle Jets didnt.
Tinkler eventually kept the A-League licence. This article has the story.
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/a-league/tinkler-back-as-newcastle-jets-owner-20120501-1xwjo.html
Im not confident any of Tinkler’s sports properties will see new cash put into them.
September 17th 2012 @ 3:45pm
Chris said | September 17th 2012 @ 3:45pm | Report comment
Can’t say I agree. Punters determine who starts favourite and much of the All Too Hard hype has been driven by the media and not by Patinack. While I agree that many Patinak horses are overhyped, I doubt much of that hype comes from within nor do I think they are “over promising” and do not even understand what “It’s ingrained into how they prepare their horses” means. As far as I can see they are not promising anything to anyone. Nechita was favourite due to a strong unbeaten campaign to the Golden Rose and managed 6th while suffering a major cut to the leg. All Too Hard is just a victim of celebrity with punters expecting more. As for your words on Casino Prince, racing records aren’t historically a great indicator of sire performance. Encosta De Lago, Redoutes Choice etc all were good races horses but hardly what you would call a champion. Casino Prince isn’t nearly as bad a sire as others on here think. 8 individual winners year one is not a terrible record at all. Suspect reading this that the author might have lost a few bucks on the stable over the years and needed to vent. Nechita was always venerable to me on the weekend and calling her the biggest disappointment of the weekend was not really true for mine. Firstly no filly has ever won the Golden Rose since it has been run in the Spring which for me was the first big question mark. The second was that others in the race had strong form lines through Pierro, which nobody would deny is the benchmark.
September 17th 2012 @ 5:35pm
Alfred Chan said | September 17th 2012 @ 5:35pm | Report comment
Hi Chris. You’re right in saying that all the hype around Patinack horses are media and punter driven rather than from the stable. John Thompson stays out of the media as much as he can and when Tinkler speaks, well, owners always say their horse should win. I bought up Casino Prince in the article because it infuriates me how the media frequently report him as Black Caviar’s little brother. I believe there is a major discrepancy in the differences between Bel Esprit and Casino Prince’s progeny which always seems to be left out.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and all the form guides showed that Nechita had come through much weaker races than those who raced against Pierro. I am guilty of backing Nechita in the Golden Rose. As the article suggests, these are reasons why I can not trust Patinack Farm. I would not look down upon those who do.
I still believe that All Too Hard was raced too much as a 2yo and we have seen the best of him. I’m open to being proven wrong though. If you want to use Black Caviar as a yard stick, BC was raced twice as a 2yo for two wins. She came back as a 3yo and ran another three races, none of which were at G1 level. It was as a 4yo that her she was entered in genuine races, put against the best and asked to back up her runs. All Too Hard had four big runs as a 2yo and coming back as a 3yo, he is struggling immensely compared to horse he ran against earlier that have returned as 3yo’s. Could his workload have hindered his development? I’m leaning towards yes.
September 17th 2012 @ 5:56pm
Justin Cinque said | September 17th 2012 @ 5:56pm | Report comment
But Alfred the Hawkes team gave Lonhro and Octagonal big two-year old campaigns and they came through it well. Pierro was one of the earliest two-year olds up and about last year and hasn’t suffered defeat in a pretty big 2yo season and looks (physically and athletically) to have improved.
Don’t undersell Casino Prince, he should of won – was slaughtered by bad luck or bad ride depending who you talk to – in a Doncaster, in an era where Doncasters are seriously strong races. That performance was better than anything Bel Esprit did in his very squibbish career. And while All Too Hard appears to be living up his very accurate name if it is far too early to condemn this bloke to mediocrity because like dad (who was a Golden Slipper favourite at 2) this bloke mightn’t be at his best until he’s four years old. And I’d back him in to win a big race at some point.
September 17th 2012 @ 6:16pm
Alfred Chan said | September 17th 2012 @ 6:16pm | Report comment
Hi Justin. Lonhro and Octagonal both had very successful 2yo campaigns before returning older and replicating the success. Many others do too, just like Pierro has. For me, the most obvious difference between Black Caviar and All Too Hard are their sires. I’m not saying a Bel Esprit x Helsinge foul could replicate what Black Caviar has done but it seems a reasonable guide to how All Too Hard would develop. if you want to go down the Casino Prince progeny, how many showed the same juvenile success as All Too Hard? I’m more comfortable following the Helsinge form guide than the sire’s side. I do agree with you that we will not see the best of All Too Hard until he’s a bit older.
September 17th 2012 @ 6:20pm
Justin Cinque said | September 17th 2012 @ 6:20pm | Report comment
But Alfred, how many Bel Esprits showed the promise of any progeny of Helsinge before Black Caviar came about? Seriously, even the guy who sent Helsinge to Bel Esprit admits it wasn’t an ideal choice!!
Bel Esprit has blossomed because better mares are serving him and he’s improved with time at stud.
Good debate by the way!!
September 17th 2012 @ 6:35pm
Alfred Chan said | September 17th 2012 @ 6:35pm | Report comment
That is an excellent point re: Bel Esprit. Bel Mer came from no where and came last a few times before a shock win in the Sangster followed by a return to rubbish in the TJ Smith. Bel Sprinter is about to enter his prime season now I believe based on his run on the weekend. You’ve convinced me that it is only because of Black Caviar that Bel Esprit is serving better mares which is why we may see a lot more successful ones in the coming years.
All Too Hard could be the making of Casino Prince’s stud career but I’m very skeptical based on his track record. I’d still pin a lot back to Helsinge.
How many more foals does Helsinge have left in her?
September 17th 2012 @ 6:00pm
Alfred Chan said | September 17th 2012 @ 6:00pm | Report comment
Using dam progeny as a form line, Golden Rose winner Epaulette is a 3/4 brother to Helmet. Helmet had a 2yo campaign consisting of five races which included winning the Sires Produce Stakes and Champagne Stakes. He came back as a 3yo and ran third in the Run to the Rose behind Smart Missile and then ran third behind Manawanui in the Golden Rose. He really came into his own in his third-up run, winning the Guineas Prelude before winning the Caulfield Guineas.
Epaulette had a four race 2yo campaign and was just pipped at the line by Pierro in the Todman Stakes. He came back as a 3yo and like Helmet, ran third in the Run to the Rose. He did however do two better than his 3/4 brother by winning the Golden Rose in his second-up run. All horses are unique of course, but one less race as. 2yo and he came good one better as a 3yo. That’s just another example of how dam bloodlines can give insight into when a horse will find their form. There is of course the sire bloodlines which have a big influence. Helmet is by Exceed and Excell while Epaulettte is by Commands. Both produce much more promising sprinters than Casino Prince.
September 17th 2012 @ 6:08pm
Justin Cinque said | September 17th 2012 @ 6:08pm | Report comment
Yes, Commands and Exceed and Excel may be better at stud than Casino Prince but neither Epaulette or Helmet have shown the promise (or brilliance) of All Too Hard – and if Helmet is anything to go by they may be exactly like their sires – finished at 3 years of age.
I’m not necessarily in this camp but there is a school of thought that says the minute ATH gets back on his Melbourne leg is the same minute ATH returns to his brilliant best – and that school of thought, perhaps rather foolishly, still believe he can win a Caulfield Guineas against a right-handed star in Pierro.
Just like how Black Caviar put Bel Esprit on the map why can’t All Too Hard put Casino Prince on the map. Like he was on the track, Casino Prince may be a late bloomer at stud.
September 17th 2012 @ 6:11pm
Justin Cinque said | September 17th 2012 @ 6:11pm | Report comment
And there is still upside in All Too Hard – - Black Caviar didn’t peak until she was four and Casino Prince didn’t peak until he was four.
And All Too Hard is huge horse, massive animal. When he grows into his body, you’ll see a different horse. Don’t condemn a September three-year old.
I genuinely believe that team Hawkes are calling the shots with All Too Hard – and their record with promising sprinter-milers is impeccable over 30 years. I’d back them in. If it was all about Tinkler, ATH would’ve run in the Golden Slipper.
September 17th 2012 @ 6:43pm
Alfred Chan said | September 17th 2012 @ 6:43pm | Report comment
I’m glad the Tinkler gave All Too Hard to the Hawkes team who have a much better history of success than John Thompson. When he’s spent $1m on a foal, you’d expect him to pay top dollar for the most highly credential stable to train his horse.
Interesting school of thought there regarding the track direction. I hadn’t considered it but there’s a chance All Too Hard only knows the Melbourne way at his young age.
Looking forward to seeing him return to Melbourne and Pierro’s Melbourne debut.
September 17th 2012 @ 6:31pm
Chris said | September 17th 2012 @ 6:31pm | Report comment
Alfred I just can’t understand the comment ” Patinack Farm has a history of over-promising and under-delivering. It’s ingrained into how they prepare their horses.”
They are not getting the results they would like granted but not sure they’ve over promised anything and how you link that over promising to how they prepare their horses? People can criticise the 2yo prep of ATH all they like but that is coming from the mouths of Mondays experts. ATH was given no tougher prep than Pierro and we dont see anyone criticising Gai of his prep. Fact is he lost and hasn’t come on quite like they would’ve hoped but that’s racing.
September 17th 2012 @ 6:54pm
Alfred Chan said | September 17th 2012 @ 6:54pm | Report comment
I wish I could remember the names of more horses but right now, but they slip my mind because they win a few lower grade races in the country and then fail in the city’s bigger races and then fall out of relevant existence. They have good bloodlines to suggest they can run well in the city but they just don’t come good compared to other horses by the same sire.
One recent example which springs to mind is Roll The Bones. She made her debut in the G3 Sweet Embrace Stakes at Randwick and is by Red Ransom. In her debut, she ran last in a field of 12 by 15 lengths. For a horse to make their debut in a G3 race, her trainer and connections must regard their horse pretty dam highly.
Six months later, she ran first up in a lesser race in Canturbury and won before being entered in the Furious Stakes last week and running last. The stable believe she’s capable of big things and rather than running through the grades, she’s yo-yo’d between grades. It just seems like a terrible preperation to have sent their horse through.
September 17th 2012 @ 7:05pm
Justin Cinque said | September 17th 2012 @ 7:05pm | Report comment
That’s a good point Alfred. I guess it all comes down to philosophy and what drives philosophy. The battler from Mudgee would probably take a decent horse through the grades because they need the money and would want to be sure their horse is up to it before sending them to town.
But more established metropolitan stables have the financial backing to be in the industry to win big races and the only way you’re going to find out if a precocious horse is ready for the golden slipper is if you throw them in the deep end, esp if they aren’t ready pre Christmas to go through the grades, and let’s face it most people are trying to buy a slipper winner at the sales these days.
But in a short foray into greyhound ownership our aim as owners was to take it slowly, slowly; to go through the grades. Our bitch won a maiden at the non-tabs by five lengths on debut. Without us knowing and going against the plan for three weeks between runs, the trainer threw her in a heat for a race with city prize the next weekend and she half-dwelt at the start, suffered interference and did a shoulder. And I won’t forget it. She made it back to the track but hasn’t been quite the same – not having won in better grade since her rmaiden.
I’m very much in the softly, softly camp but I’m no billionaire and this ain’t greyhounds.
September 17th 2012 @ 10:24pm
peeeko said | September 17th 2012 @ 10:24pm | Report comment
tinkler aint no billionaire either!
September 17th 2012 @ 10:26pm
peeeko said | September 17th 2012 @ 10:26pm | Report comment
tinkler paying 1mln for ATH was pure advertising. It looks good for his sire casino prince to be producing 1mln dollar yearlings… even if he is the only buyer!
September 17th 2012 @ 10:35pm
Justin Cinque said | September 17th 2012 @ 10:35pm | Report comment
Well he wouldn’t have paid a $1.025m for him if the underbidder didn’t put their hand up for $1m. And looking at news reports from the day it looks like the Hawkes team signed for him so I wonder if Tinkler instructed them to buy the horse or whether they found Tinkler afterwards.
And yes, you’re right, Tinkler isn’t a billionaire but Sheik Mohammed is!
September 24th 2012 @ 9:52am
noel mckenna said | September 24th 2012 @ 9:52am | Report comment
Alfred, horses performance at the track is not always a true indicator of how they will turn out at stud. A perfect example at darley is Commands and Octagonal. Commands only won a group 3 and Octagonal won close to 10 ? Group ones and look at how Commands has out performed Octagonal at stud.
September 26th 2012 @ 8:00pm
Chris said | September 26th 2012 @ 8:00pm | Report comment
People can say what they want about Casino Prince but he is far from a poor sire. He just became the first freshman sire from the 2008 breeding season to have his progeny earn $1m in prize-money and so far (quoting from the Patinack website) has had for 48 runners, 11 winners, 19 wins, 2 Stakes winners, 4 Stakes wins, 4 Stakes-performers, prize-money $1,072,990. It doesn’t at all make him a champion sire or make him Redoutes Choice but its not that sorry.
October 15th 2012 @ 8:27am
Chris said | October 15th 2012 @ 8:27am | Report comment
Couldn’t help but say ha ha to all of those who said we’ve seen the best of All Too Hard. As for Casino Prince, sure he might not be a gun sire but you can’t win a Guineas on your Dam alone…