My blueprint for how to fix Patinack Farm
By Justin Cinque, 20 Sep 2012 Justin Cinque is a Roar Expert
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- Horse Racing, Nathan Tinkler, Patinack Farm
Can Patinack Farm become profitable for Nathan Tinkler? (Image: Patinack Farm)
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Nathan Tinkler waltzed into the racing industry in 2007 with big ambitions. Armed with millions of dollars, the mining magnate aimed to build a world-class breeding and racing empire from scratch.
Despite coming into racing at a time when Equine Influenza had the Australian industry on its knees, Tinkler’s Patinack Farm quickly developed into one of the biggest players in the sport in this country.
But five years after entering racing, Tinkler is beginning to do it tough. Reports of cash-flow problems are widespread and the cost of running Patinack Farm, reportedly $500,000-a-week, is bleeding Tinkler dry.
With his pockets tightening, Tinkler is searching for answers.
So here’s how I’d run Patinack Farm.
Some sources say Tinkler has spent more than $300m on his racing empire – undoubtedly a sufficient amount to gain a foothold in the industry – so the immediate aim for Patinack Farm is to secure its future.
A lot has been made about the decision to sell 200 broodmares and 150 racehorses at a Magic Millions reductions sale next month. I can’t help but feel this is a good idea.
Patinack Farm is over-sized for a racing operation of considerable youth. It took the Inghams decades to build Woodlands Stud into a viable $500m entity and Tinkler was overly ambitious to think he could do the same in five years.
The dispersal sale will cut losses on poor investments and should signal the start of the downsising of Patinack Farm.
The money generated from the sale should be used to guarantee the future of the operation. And the first thing I’d do is settle bad blood by re-paying any outstanding debts to creditors in the industry (and by all reports there are many waiting to be paid).
Patinack runs racing stables in three states. It also has two stud farms, spelling paddocks and a pre-training facility.
There are up to 168 racehorses in training at any one time (80 at Canungra near Gold Coast, 32 at Randwick and 56 at Flemington). At the same time, there would be at least another 100 (maybe even 200) racehorses out of training at the Stud near Scone.
When this is combined with dozens of yearlings (who are not old enough to race), hundreds of broodmares and ten stallions, it’s not hard to understand why I have described the operation as an ‘empire’.
If Patinack Farm wants to prosper, its breeding arm – not racing – needs to be the focal point because there isn’t enough prizemoney in the sport to fund an operation such as this. With that in mind, Patinack has an excessive amount of racehorses on their books.
Even though he admits it’s “at odds with nearly every other commercial breeding operation in the country,” Tinkler chooses to race a lot of his stallions’ progeny himself.
By having a maximum of 90 racehorses in training at any one time, Patinack can keep their better yearlings and sell the rest. The mantra of the operation should be ‘quality over quantity’.
But Patinack should continue to buy racehorses. I’d employ one of the better bloodstock agents in the business to source the best tried (from Europe) and untried (from the yearling sales) gallopers.
I’d like to see a greater emphasis on buying horses capable of winning Australia’s spring majors – something Patinack hasn’t come close to doing yet.
With the racing world’s focus on Melbourne during spring, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup success should be a high priority as a way of showcasing the Patinack brand to the world.
90 horses in work is quite a large number – reigning Victorian and Melbourne Premiership winner Peter Moody is regarded as the best trainer in Australia with 66 horses in training at any one time – but Patinack has the infrastructure to make it work.
Tinkler built a state-of-the-art facility at Canungra on the Gold Coast. It houses 80 horses in training, has spelling paddocks, turf and artificial training tracks, a swimming pool and stud farm. If it isn’t already, Canungra should be the home of the operation.
But I have to question the location of Patinack’s key facility. Why would they build their greatest asset at Canungra; hours away from the riches of Melbourne and Sydney racing?
It must be a boon for the Queensland racing industry but surely a provincial Victorian location would’ve been more practical?
Using the money from the dispersal sale, I’d be looking to build a replica of Canungra close to Melbourne. Upon completion – and depending on the financial state of Patinack Farm – a decision would be made on the future of the Gold Coast facility. If sold, there would no shortage of suitors.
Of the 90 horses I propose to have in work, 70 should be based at Canungra. The best 20 can be trained out of Randwick.
A stable of 56 at Flemington is ridiculously large for a second-tier base and it should be sold. In place, a small set of boxes (perhaps a dozen) can be purchased to house horses that travel south for big races.
I’d have the secondary training facility at Randwick instead of Flemington because Patinack’s pre-training facility is at Hawkesbury, west of Sydney – and the Melbourne stables would become redundant when the replica of Canungra is finished.
John Thompson has been the head trainer for Patinack since 2009 and I think he’s done a good job and I’d keep him on. After going through seven trainers in three years, the operation was nicknamed “Pat’n'sack”. Stability has been a newfound but worthwhile trait for the operation.
In the last few years, I’ve seen slight progress in Patinack’s on-track performances and while there is plenty of room for improvement, Thompson’s team deserve some credit.
Thompson should be based at Randwick where he can oversee the training of the operations’ better performers.
With 70 horses in work, the Canungra facility needs an experienced trainer running it. I’d be making a play at Hall-of-Famer Lee Freedman.
Freedman has successfully trained a large team at a unique property – “Markdel” at Rye (on the Mornington peninsula) was home to Makybe Diva and Miss Andretti during their racing years.
After taking a short break from training, Freedman recently went into partnership with Graeme Rogerson at Randwick where they co-train a small team of horses. I would be enticing Freedman to become the head-trainer of Patinack Farm. He would be based at Canungra.
Rogerson is a champion conditioner; he knows how to train a good horse to win a big race and I’d employ him to work alongside Thompson at Randwick.
For a breeding operation to be successful it needs to boast quality sires. A good book of sires will draw the country’s best mares. And if a sire is serving a full book of mares through the breeding season, millions of dollars will be generated.
Patinack’s breeding arm is headlined by the two leading first-season sires in Australia last season – Casino Prince and Husson.
And they also have 2007 French Guineas and Derby winner Lope de Vega as well as 2009 VRC Derby victor Monaco Consul on their books. Neither Lope de Vega or Monaco Consul have had any horses reach the track.
All four sires are young and relatively unproven but it is an impressive line-up. With a bit of luck, the operation shouldn’t need to acquire too many more high-profile stallions in the foreseeable future, especially with a back-up cast that includes Caulfield Guineas winner Wonderful World (who, admittedly, didn’t set the world on fire in his first season at stud).
To cap it off, Patinack owns the half-brother to Black Caviar – All Too Hard. And the best part is Black Caviar’s most accomplished sibling is sired by Casino Prince.
As a prospective stallion, if All Too Hard was claim Group One success this spring, a secure and handsome career awaits at stud.
Getting Group One success onto All Too Hard’s CV should be Patinack Farm’s primary aim this spring.
All Too Hard was a dual Group Two winning two-year old and finished second to champion juvenile Pierro at Group One level in the autumn.
In his first two runs as a three-year old All Too Hard has disappointed (finishing third and fifth respectively) but a rise in distance to the mile this Saturday (Group One, George Main) is sure to help the John Hawkes’ trained galloper.
I’d look to campaign the hulking chestnut in Europe next year.
Like his sire, All Too Hard appears to be a horse that may peak in his fourth year. I think his style would be suited to English racing and I’d aim him at races like the Queen Anne (1609m, Group One) at Royal Ascot – a race which was won by an Australian horse, Haradasun, in 2008.
If All Too Hard was to win Group Ones in both hemispheres, his value, as a close relation to Black Caviar, would skyrocket. And the flow-on effect for Casino Prince would be profound.
If Patinack get their yearling purchases correct, broodmares shouldn’t need to be a high priority. Some of the best producing mares aren’t the most talented racehorses but most are well bred.
Patinack has purchased broodmares from Australasia and Europe in recent years – I wouldn’t seek any more because every female horse in the operation can go to stud when they finish racing.
Nathan Tinkler has the infrastructure and has laid the groundwork to make Patinack Farm successful. With some downsizing and a bit of restructuring, his $300m investment can begin to bear fruit in tough financial times.
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September 20th 2012 @ 8:37am
peeeko said | September 20th 2012 @ 8:37am | Report comment
Some good ideas except for getting Graeme Rogerson involved
September 20th 2012 @ 11:03am
sheek said | September 20th 2012 @ 11:03am | Report comment
Justin, great read as usual.
September 20th 2012 @ 12:11pm
Scuba said | September 20th 2012 @ 12:11pm | Report comment
Casino Prince only had a 22% runners to winners ratio, and All Too Hard was his only stakes winner last season. Not the figures of a flagship sire. Husson’s 42% is a much more healthy ratio – perhaps Patinack would be better off switching their focus?
Just one correction – Tinkler didn’t build the operation at Canungra – Dale Sutton did (using former Toll boss Peter Rowsthorn’s cash) – he may have extended it a bit but it was a state of the art facility (albeit in the middle of nowhere) well before Patinack came along.
September 20th 2012 @ 1:18pm
Justin Cinque said | September 20th 2012 @ 1:18pm | Report comment
Canungra is the joining together and further development of three properties.
You’re probably right about husson but it’s so hard to tell about first reason sires. It’s best to judge in a few years. But i think his stallions are his strongest asset and smartest purchases albeit with all the unknowns.
September 20th 2012 @ 12:54pm
Alfred Chan said | September 20th 2012 @ 12:54pm | Report comment
It’s all well and good to make these kinds of recommendations when it’s not our money, but despite Tinkler’s riches, the majority of these recommendations are logistically impossible.
Once Tinkler pays off his creditors, I don’t imagine he will have the kind of disposable income required to rebuild Patinack Farm. He’ll be smarter than that and refocus his energy towards rebuilding his financial empire.
Replicating Cunungra near Melbourne is the most unlikely thing to happen. He’d need to be a long way out of Melbourne (2 hours+) and even then, it would take a considerable amount of time to build and I’m not sure Tinkler’s will be prominent in the industry that long.
September 20th 2012 @ 1:14pm
Justin Cinque said | September 20th 2012 @ 1:14pm | Report comment
Well alfred he’s going to sell 350 horses so he’s about to get his hands on considerable amounts of money – perhaps 80 or 100m? The mail is he got a 20m payment from gerry harvey that will need to be repaid but after that probably wouldn’t owe racing creditors more than 10m – if anywhere near that.
Of course tinkler won’t move to melbourne – it would be massive backflip after setting up canungra in 2011 – but he should. Being two or three hours from the city would be ideal and if took five years, well that’s small amount of time in what should be a long association with the sport.
It’s a completely hypothetical piece – it’s how i’d secure patinack farm’s future if i was running it. Of course, tinkler may be planning his escape route right now but only he knows.
September 20th 2012 @ 1:51pm
Justin Cinque said | September 20th 2012 @ 1:51pm | Report comment
It’s hard to know how much tinkler is going to get as a return from the sale but 80 to 100m looks a little generous. With 200 broodmares up for grabs, I think he’d be hoping for a return of at least 30-40m which would give patinack a bit of breathing space.
September 20th 2012 @ 1:41pm
rusty nails said | September 20th 2012 @ 1:41pm | Report comment
IMO Tinkler will not raise $20M from this dispersal sale. There are some nice mares in the sale, but most of them are dispersal lots and will be priced accordingly.
,If reports are correct with over 300 employees he is ridiculously over staffed.If he was to benchmark his staffing levels with best practices from leading trainers & studs, the headcount would reduce dramatically.
He also needs to instruct his racing manager & trainer to change their practices. I was always taught keep your horses in the worst company.Too many of his horses are running around in too high a grade.A win at the provincials earns more than an honest ninth in town!
September 20th 2012 @ 1:58pm
Justin Cinque said | September 20th 2012 @ 1:58pm | Report comment
Good points rusty nails! They need to think smaller don’t they? But he’d want to raise at least 20m from the sale – he’s selling half his farm! Plus harvey has reportedly lent him 20m to be paid back after the sale, so the pressure is on.
September 20th 2012 @ 5:48pm
Rusty nails said | September 20th 2012 @ 5:48pm | Report comment
20M is no chance, it might be a third of his band but it is basically the worst third.
The timing of the sale was 3 months from the date of the announcement.
It is designed to give him time rather than raise x amount of dollars IMO
September 20th 2012 @ 6:24pm
Justin Cinque said | September 20th 2012 @ 6:24pm | Report comment
I’m not sure myself but you could well be right on all counts. It will be interesting to see what Tinklers’ next move is especially if this was an exercise to buy him time.
Imo it would be a silly time to get out of racing. Once he gets things to a manageable level there is a lot of promise. Having horses like All Too Hard, Nechita, Pear Tart, Destruction and co should be more than enough to get Nathan out of bed in the morning. Especially with the two leading first-season sires – if one of them became a consistent top-five player in the sires list he’d make a killing.
September 20th 2012 @ 8:46pm
rusty nails said | September 20th 2012 @ 8:46pm | Report comment
I don’t think he will get a choice. Some estimates are that he has total debts of $600M, which was fine when Whitehaven shares were worth a billion, now that they are worth $600M he has not have the options he had previously. Given that the total dividend for Whitehaven last year was $70M (Tinkler’s share $14M) if he owes any more than $200M he is going backwards, before any cash flow drains such as the horses or football team etc etc.
If he can’t find a Sheikh somewhere, or do a deal with Whitehaven,that raises some cash for him, expect the Banks to break up the joint and have a fire sale in the next 12 months.
September 20th 2012 @ 2:18pm
Scuba said | September 20th 2012 @ 2:18pm | Report comment
Justin, off this topic, but I reckon you put the mock on the Naturalism Stakes a couple of weeks back – it’s turned out a pretty average field!
September 20th 2012 @ 2:50pm
Justin Cinque said | September 20th 2012 @ 2:50pm | Report comment
Scuba i’d love to take the credit for it but i think you can blame tvn and sky for that. Andrew bensley said they were 40 horses hoping to get a start in it and bruce clark said it was going to be so strong strawberry boy wouldn’t make the second division of the race! A few got sacred away obviously. Of course, i said it would be the 4th strongest staying hcp this spring and it still may be – there’s enough good horses in it eg last time g2 winner zurella.
September 20th 2012 @ 3:11pm
lizabeth soown said | September 20th 2012 @ 3:11pm | Report comment
They will be luck y if they make 4 million out of this sale.Most will be passed in unless they all unreserved of course.If they manage to get 10,000 per horse thats only 3 .5 million.So how these peopel think 30 to 80 million is crazy.It wont help his name if he pays back all his creditors in the racing game as the guys name is so bad it would take yrs to get any credibility if any at all.If i was tinkler and thank god i am not ,i would shut the whole operation down as a total waste of time and effort.I feel sorry for the guy ,i mean he had a go,but had no show as average trainers and and the name he got as pat n sack didnt help his cause either.Good luck in the future tinks as it is the hardest game in the world to make money out off.
September 20th 2012 @ 6:19pm
Justin Cinque said | September 20th 2012 @ 6:19pm | Report comment
Lizabeth it’s an unreserved catalogue. There’s no way they are going to get to $100m – that was an error I made working without a caluculator but it will get more than $4m too. Many of the mares sold are either in foal or have just foaled and the foals are included with the purchase of the mares. And being a young establishment many of mares are yet to produce horses that have reached the track – but it is a dispersal sale and it a lot of Patinack’s very worst. However, it is a sale of 35-40% of the horses in a $300m operation so they’d want it to get more than $4m for it.
September 20th 2012 @ 9:54pm
Shaun said | September 20th 2012 @ 9:54pm | Report comment
Good read. But I’d say they’re taking a bit of a gamble with All Too Hard–every time he misses a place, his stud value takes a dive. Running him at a distance he’s never been tried at, against seasoned, proven Group One opponents, especially with his atrocious barrier manners, seems like a risk. I would have tried him at the Stan Fox Stakes. It’s not a Group One, but he would probably come up against a weaker field and it would look good on his record to have won at both two and three. Might give him a confidence boost as well.
September 20th 2012 @ 11:04pm
Floyd Calhoun said | September 20th 2012 @ 11:04pm | Report comment
Have to agree with Lizabeth, Patinack is looking more and more like a house of cards with each passing day.