History shows fast start vital in A-League
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If Brisbane Roar, Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC have ambitions of winning A-League silverware this season, history suggests they will want to win this weekend.
Only two clubs in the competition’s seven-year history have gone on to win a trophy without winning at least one of the season’s opening two matches.
And no team has lost its opening two games and claimed silverware that season.
It makes for an interesting discussion topic should either the defending champion Roar or Melbourne Victory drop a mouth-watering clash at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday night after losing in week one.
Sydney FC and Newcastle Jets also lost their opening matches last weekend, and will be under similar pressure in Alessandro Del Piero’s home debut at Allianz Stadium on Saturday.
The Roar, Victory and Sky Blues have all been talked up as possible champions this season.
But Roar midfielder Thomas Broich insists losing their opening match last weekend against Perth Glory isn’t the end of the world and there are plenty of opportunities over the 27-week fixture season to make amends.
“Our performance was pretty average but it’s just round one and the season is a marathon, not a sprint,” he said.
“It’s round one, let’s relax and see what happens.”
Central Coast Mariners’ performance last season does give hope to the slow starters.
The Mariners lost two of their first three matches to sit bottom of the table – only posting their maiden win in week four.
But that was the start of a remarkable run and they won seven of their next eight matches, and eventually the Premiers’ Plate.
Interestingly, the Roar remain favourites for both the league title and grand final with most bookmaking firms despite their week one defeat.
© AAP 2013The Crowd Says (17) | Page 1 of Comments
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October 11th 2012 @ 4:11am
AVictory said | October 11th 2012 @ 4:11am | Report comment
This stat is complete rubbish and is meaningless.
Obviously if a team has a horrible start and continue to be horrible for the rest of the season they are never going to win the league.
But you can have a slow start and still be strong later on and vice versa.
Example, Adelaide in 2010/2011 had one of, if not the best starts in A-League history, they were winning most matches and were unbeaten. Brisbane conversely had a slow start with low scoring draws, a bye and a loss.
As the season neared the halfway point, Adelaide suffered their first loss to Ernie Merrick’s Melbourne Victory. Brisbane played Adelaide the week after and crushed them.
Adelaide had a mediocre second half to the season and finished 3rd, Brisbane went on to win their first double and was the major portion of their 36 match unbeaten streak
October 11th 2012 @ 8:56am
Kasey said | October 11th 2012 @ 8:56am | Report comment
AV:
I believe that was the game at Docklands your Muscat –thug-disciple Surat Sukha tried to operate on Matt Leckie’s knee with his football boot. The period of time minus Leckie really took the spice out of our attack and we never really recovered. For the sake of the future of our National team I’m happy he seems to have recovered.
Obviously this use of stats with a sample size of 7(seasons) is fraught with danger and anybody with a head for figures would realise this.
October 11th 2012 @ 11:25am
AVictory said | October 11th 2012 @ 11:25am | Report comment
Aye, that’s the game!
And agreed with Leckie, I was very concerned for his career however… wasn’t he already playing the game with an injured knee? (knee strapped) and Coolen and co sent him out there, running the risk of serious injury.
And my point is Kasey, that these types of stats are completely meaningless in comparison to reality, while getting a good start is always nice it doesn’t mean anything for the long run. The season is decided over 27 matches and can be won with an infinite amount of combinations, the first 2 games are meaningless in the context of the 27.
October 11th 2012 @ 11:36am
Kasey said | October 11th 2012 @ 11:36am | Report comment
You can’t win the league in weeks 1-4 but you can lose it..bollocks! CCMariners were winless to week 3 last season to go on to be knocked out in the finals – by Glory in the Prelim – (which no longer exists) after lifting the Premiers Plate ‘earning’ an “Arnold-star” in the process
Its how you finish the league that has more bearing on the way your performance is viewed by the football public. If the Mariners had been a better team they might have been Champions..earning a real star under the precedent set during the NSL era. Almost nobody (even Reds fans) remember that 14 game unbeaten run that AV alluded to above.
October 11th 2012 @ 4:49pm
AVictory said | October 11th 2012 @ 4:49pm | Report comment
some things are best forgotten
October 12th 2012 @ 8:52am
Kasey said | October 12th 2012 @ 8:52am | Report comment
Like the glorious sound Muscat’s penalty made on the goal frame as he missed in the Grand final of 2010?:D I believe somewhere out there exists a techno track with that sound as the centre piece of the FTT remix?
October 11th 2012 @ 12:00pm
TC said | October 11th 2012 @ 12:00pm | Report comment
AVictory
There is a fair bit of truth about the assertion in the OP, from an historical perspective.
Presumably you’re a Victory fan?
In season 2, the Victory one their first 7 games and pretty much had the premiership sewn up about two thirds through the season, and despite some ordinary form in the final 4 or 5 games, still won the premiership convincingly.
The following season, the Victory had 2 wins and 5 draws after the first 7 games, and were barely hanging onto 4th spot, and once a few losses flowed, they were dead meat.
In the meantime, the Mariners had a string of wins in the first 7 games, and once again, that set them up for the premiership.
The thing is that the A-League is a salary capped comp and very equal, so a string of early wins is gold, especially if your rivals are managing draws and failing to close out games.
Now you might say that the premiership does not guarantee you the Championship, but it certainly puts you in the box seat to play off for the Championship.
TC
October 11th 2012 @ 4:38pm
AVictory said | October 11th 2012 @ 4:38pm | Report comment
I’m talking about the Premiership and no it’s not minor!
Yep, but Victory didn’t win season 2 because they won their first 7 games, they won it over 21 (or 17) games. The Championship (toilet seat) follows and yes, the top 2 statistically have a greater than 75% chance of making the final, each.
The seasons are now longer, and having a good start always helps, but it’s where you finish that matters. How you get there is up to you and your opponents. The disadvantage of a dip in form is that fate is no longer your own hands.
Look at Roar last season, they had a mid season slump meanwhile Mariners powered their advantage over them. There was something of a 12+ point gap between the two teams. However Mariners nearly fell at the finish line where as Roar had a good run of form, the result was that in the final round, Mariners had to win their final game in Wellington, and if they didn’t, and Roar won, the Roar would have grabbed the Premiers Plate.
The Mariners did beat Wellington, and the Roar couldn’t do anything else despite winning the final game against Gold Coast, their fate was not in their own hands.
October 11th 2012 @ 11:13am
Ballymore said | October 11th 2012 @ 11:13am | Report comment
A fast start may me more important in HAL compared to other leagues, because of the short length of the season and eveness of teams, but I’m not sure whether we can read too much into it.
I believe CCM went LWL at the start of 2011/2012 and were Premiers.
October 11th 2012 @ 12:07pm
Kasey said | October 11th 2012 @ 12:07pm | Report comment
Fast starts are very important for the marketing team I imagine. You are right that he short length of the season coupled with the other points that this is a salary capped league that any momentum gained is valuable. I would prefer to gain any momentum heading into the last month of the season – No matter what Graham Arnold thinks – winning the HALGF is seen as the bigger achievement in this country.
October 11th 2012 @ 12:30pm
Ballymore said | October 11th 2012 @ 12:30pm | Report comment
Very true, I hope Sydney’s opening day efforts doesn’t decrease their crowd for the ADP v Heskey match up.
October 11th 2012 @ 11:39am
dinoweb said | October 11th 2012 @ 11:39am | Report comment
To AVictory and Kasey, in seven years, only two teams have lost their opening game, and gone on to reach the Grand final, Adelaide United in 2006-07 and Melbourne Victory in 2009-10. Adelaide’s loss was to their Grand Final opponents Melbourne Victory, so that is 2 out of 14. Further, teams have lost the opening game 20 times, so 2 out of 20 reaching the GF is 10%.
No team has won the grand final after losing the opening game (ie 0 from 7).
Of course, the flip side of that is that 45 teams out of 65 have either won or drawn their opening game, and only 12 (26%) of those have reached the Grand Final, so that is no gaurantee of success either.
The top two teams at the end of the season have reached the grand final 5 times, the other two times it was second and third.
What does all this mean? The better teams for the season generally do not lose their opening game (bad news for me as a Roar fan)
The changes to the post season comp this year will make it easier for lower placed teams to progress, but I would suggest that the higher placed teams are still the most likely to progress.
And while 7 seasons may seem like a small sample, I was invloved in administering my local senior competition, with multiple divisions, for over 20 years, and these stats would be fairly consistent with my experiences there, across every division, regardless of standard,
October 11th 2012 @ 11:56am
Kasey said | October 11th 2012 @ 11:56am | Report comment
All sounds very good if your team won on the opening weekend(as mine did), but I think I’ll wait to see how my team does hosting
FC Car Insurance on Friday night before I assess my expectations of the year ahead;) thanks for the stats:)
October 11th 2012 @ 4:45pm
AVictory said | October 11th 2012 @ 4:45pm | Report comment
The point is that it’s meaningless though, of course whoever is on top of the table has an advantage of the teams below them, it’s common sense. But that can all change quickly.
As Roar proved last season, nothing is guaranteed. They went from an unbeaten start to a 5 match losing streak, and despite their recovery and best effort to almost clinching the premiership in the final round, their own fate was no longer in their hands. Mariners finished on top thanks to a win Wellington, had it been a draw, Brisbane would have been premiers.
October 11th 2012 @ 11:59am
Minister for Information for the Democratic People's Republic of Football said | October 11th 2012 @ 11:59am | Report comment
The cream will rise to the top eventually. Momentum is one thing but if a team doesn’t have the quality they will be found out sooner or later. As a Sydneysider and SFC fan I have a strange soft spot for M.Heart. I like their quick transition from defence to attack, their energy and pressing and mobile forwards. I hope to see them in the finals along with SFC.
And yes the 0:4 pasting we copped at the SFS last season hasn’t been forgotten but I guess that’s what we deserved on the day.
October 11th 2012 @ 1:59pm
fadida said | October 11th 2012 @ 1:59pm | Report comment
If it was first past the post a good start would be more important. A finals series gives plenty of cushioning for a good side who start slowly. That teams who start poorly aren’t that successful suggests the team itself simply wasn’t good enough to win the title, and that the start was consistent with their ability.
Of more interest for me (and GA I’m sure) would be a map of how the eventual GF winners progress. Do teams who fly from the blocks fade at the end eg CCM? Do teams with modest starts power home, peaking in the finals series?
Any of the top sides (and I think MV and BR will end up being amongst those) can afford a slowish start while perfecting tactics, bedding in new signings, and still win.
October 12th 2012 @ 11:49am
Chris said | October 12th 2012 @ 11:49am | Report comment
I’ll give you a hint: Every game is worth the same number of points.
Winning your first two games is nice. Winning rounds 10 and 11 is nice. Winning the last two rounds is nice.
Obviously winning a couple of games to begin gives you a 6 point start, but beyond that there is nothing magical about it.