Caulfield Guineas Day: Tips and Preview

 
Cameron Rose Columnist

By , 12 Oct 2012 Cameron Rose is a Roar Expert

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    Caulfield Guineas Day: Tips and Preview + enlarge image

    Jockey Nash Rawiller rides More Joyous AAP Image/John Donegan

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    Caulfield Guineas day is upon us, one of the most celebrated days on the racing calendar, bringing with it a feast of black type events.

    This day has provided some special moments over the years, as colleague Justin Cinque highlighted yesterday.

    All eyes will turn toward Pierro as he looks to extend his record to nine wins from nine starts, and claim his fourth group one in the process.

    With the Gai Waterhouse colt firming by the hour for the Cox Plate, the Guineas tomorrow looks a formality, and I’m not sure that even $1.20 isn’t ‘overs’.

    While the majesty of the turf is foremost in our minds and we love to see an unbeaten superstar, from a punting perspective the Guineas has effectively been ruined as a betting proposition.

    Having had some personal success in the race through In Top Swing, God’s Own and Starspangledbanner, this makes me a little sad.

    The same could be said for the Caulfield Stakes, formerly known as the Yalumba.

    Manighar’s scratching from this event, and subsequent withdrawal from the Spring, has left a hole in the weight-for-age ranks when it comes to the older horses. This 2000m race should now be a doddle for the Underwood Stakes winner Ocean Park, and his odds of $1.60 certainly reflect it.

    Small fields have a long history of providing an upset so I won’t be leaping into the ‘shorts’, even though I can’t really the entertain the possibility of the New Zealand four year old being beaten.

    More Joyous is rated a $2 chance in the time honoured Toorak Handicap, but will have to heft 60kgs to victory if she’s to attain it.

    It’s not the actual burden she’ll have to defy so much as the weight of history, as only five horses, all male, have carried as much to win this race in over 130 years.

    Although she’s entitled to respect, you won’t see me going anywhere near her price. I don’t think she’ll be winning, and the field does open up a bit beyond her. King Mufhasa at $7.50 seems value, and Yosei is due to put it all together as she usually does once a campaign.

    You’ll see plenty worse $13 shots running around tomorrow than her.

    EACH WAY ALL DAY

    I’m not sure how Miss Marx has escaped favouritism in the last at Caulfield tomorrow, but I’ll certainly be thanking the bookies for their generosity when she finishes in the top three at around $7 the win and $2.50 the place.

    This mare has come into her five year old year as a superior animal, and seems to be growing an extra leg whenever she steps onto the track.

    First up this campaign she was just overrun, finishing second behind subsequent group two WFA placegetter, Emotional Circus. Next start she was second again, this time beaten 1.5 lengths behind More Joyous (!), before coming to Caulfield for the first time a couple of weeks ago and winning with authority over a smart lot of boys.

    Back to mares grade tomorrow, again at her pet distance, she’s drawn a nice gate to get back and run on, which should be suited late in the day.

    If she doesn’t win, only one or two will beat her, and she makes incredible each-way appeal.

    ROSE’S ROUGHIE

    While $15 is not as rough as I like them, it’s not an easy card to identify a genuine winning hope at a nice price. There’s a game and honest mare running at this price in the 2400m Herbert Power (race 8) that I can’t overlook.

    So far this campaign she’s run a great fifth in the WFA Makybe Diva Stakes, and followed it up with a second in the JRA Cup, often a key (and surprising) form reference throughout each spring.

    When it comes to her four tries in the distance range, her resume sees a second to Tanby, a second in an Ansett Classic, a win in the Warrnambool Cup (carrying 57.5kg’s if you don’t mind), and a second to Lights of Heaven in the Brisbane Cup.

    Dance With Her is the horse in question, and to add further weight to her credentials on Saturday, she loves the sting out of the track which she’ll get, has a win at Caulfield to her name, and is drawn to get the run of the race.

    In an even race of considerable depth, I’ll always advise backing something at a price, especially a horse that will be camped up on or near the speed. Dance With Her fits the bill nicely.

    Enjoy the day tomorrow, there’s no doubt history will be made one way or the other. When it comes to lovers of horse racing in this country, it’s all about the next 30 days. This is it, I’m telling you.

    Cameron Rose is a born and bred Melbournian, raised on a regime of AFL, cricket and horse racing. He likes people who agree with him but loves those that don't, for in his mind there is nothing better than a roaring debate. He tweets from @camtherose.