Thousand Guineas: Preview, tips, live blog
Roar Guru It is the fillies turn in the 1600m Group 1 Thousand Guineas in an open race. Join us for live updates and blog of the feature race in the middle of the Caulfield Carnival, with the fillies jumping at 3:40pm AEDT.
The Caulfield Carnival got off to a wonderful start on Saturday with the running of three Group 1’s including the feature Caulfield Guineas, Toorak Handicap and Caulfield Stakes.
In an almighty upset, Black Caviar’s half brother All Too Hard beat the seemingly invincible Pierro in the stallion making Guineas.
Once run on Caulfield Cup day, the Thousand Guineas for three-year-olds fillies is run over a mile with set weights, and was moved to the middle of the week in 1988 to string together the Carnival over a week.
It is the Melbourne Racing Club’s premier event for fillies carrying a prize pool of $500,000. Many of the contenders are looking to go on to the Group 1 Crown Oaks at Flemington on the penultimate day of the Flemington Carnival.
Given the set weights conditions, an outstanding filly will often dominate this race on her way to winning the Crown Oaks as well.
Last year’s winner Atlantic Jewel beat Mosheen by 3 lengths before injury struck her down as unbackable favourite in the Crown Oaks.
Other former winners include Yosei (2010), Miss Finland (2006), Alinghi (2004), Special Harmony (2003) and Northwood Plume (1994). Six fillies have gone on to complete the Thousand Guineas-Crown Oaks double, the last being Miss Finland.
Race preview: This year there is no genuine standout in the Thousand Guineas Field. A number of pre-race favourites including Nechita, Norzita, Commanding Jewel (Atlantic Jewel’s half sister) and Love For Ransom have fallen out of favor, with only the latter pair taking their places in the field of 16.
It is a tricky race to assess with tempo likely to decide the chances of a number of key runners. A fast tempo as was the case in the Caulfield Guineas on Saturday, sets the race up for the backmarkers including Dear Demi (barrier 17), Members Joy (barrier 10), Molto Bene (barrier 5), Love for Ransom (barrier 15) and Stella Lante (barrier 2).
However the preceding filly’s races in Melbourne have been run at a slower tempo allowing Lady of Harrods (‘Tquil Star’ over 1400m) and Maybe Discrete (‘Edward Manifold’ over 1600m) to be handy and win.
Sydney speedster Longport at $11 (barrier 12) ridden by aggressive jockey Craig Newitt should ensure a solid tempo is set. The John Thompson trained filly ran an admirable second to Norzita at Randwick over a mile last start and could figure in the finish again. Likely to be handy but unsuited by a fast tempo are Lady of Harrods (barrier 3), Maybe Discreet (barrier 9) and Commanding Jewel (barrier 8).
I believe this enhances the chances of Molto Bene at $4.50 (defeated by Lady of Harrods), Love For Ransom at $7.50 and Stella Lante at $17 (defeated by Balaklava Lady) reversing the results. The latter pair gets 5kg and 4kg weight relief off Balaklava Lady at $35, but at the price she still represents some value.
Other value runners could be Dear Demi at $17 (with form to Pierro and Norzita) and Big Chill at $26 who gets 5kg weight relief off Balaklava Lady for a 1.25 length defeat.
(Tips and preview provided by Sh00ter.)
Tips:
1. Molto Bene (#9)
2. Love For Ransom (#11)
3. Stella Lante (#12)
4. Longport (#2)
Live coverage below.
The Crowd Says (30) | Page 1 of Comments
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3:54pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:54pm | Report comment
That’s it from the Thousand Guineas – Commanding Jewel a resounding winner and emerges on top as probably the best filly around the traps. The times will be interesting to compare to the colt’s from the Caulfield Guineas, as it’s unlikely she’s quite up to the class of All Too Hard and Pierro. But she’s won, and connections are some $300,000 better off – plus a year’s supply of Schweppes’ Agrum, I believe – the sponsors of the race offering a different sponsors prize!
The Roar will be bringing you all the action from the Caulfield Cup, and don’t forget it’s Frankel’s final ever run this weekend – we’ll have previews, news and opinion and live blogs – and you’re always welcome to chip in your thoughts.
4:49pm
Sh00ter said | 4:49pm | Report comment
Hi Tristan,
I haven’t seen the sectionals yet but I don’t think the pace was too hot. Winner sat off them and leader ran a credible fourth. Must have been excellent runs to fill the placings from further back. Brilliant ride by Oli and the horse showed us a gear change we hadn’t seen before. As they were a pretty even bunch, one only had to produce its best to win and she did that decisively. Congratulations to Brad Spicer and connections, he’s a fantastic guy, runs a good bloodstock business and gets his owners into winners.
Two obvious runs towards the Oaks were Dear Demi which was close to pre-post favourite and Zydeco, which will trim up nicely. Both look suited to the longer Flemington straight.
6:49pm
Tristan Rayner said | 6:49pm | Report comment
Hi mate,
I’m not able to grab them at the moment, but it wasn’t hot, no. First 1000 in 62~ seconds I think.
3:47pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:47pm | Report comment
Damien Oliver says the nice draw helped, didn’t need to use her up early. She settled and off she went with some great acceleration.
3:48pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:48pm | Report comment
Olly says he’s been through worse than this week, but he’s very appreciative to the owners for staying with him and he feels somewhat vindicated.
3:46pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:46pm | Report comment
Look, that’s a good story here. She’s the half-sister to last year’s winner and superstar Atlantic Jewel, Damien Oliver gets some of the knockers off his back and Leon Corstens trained her up a treat.
3:43pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:43pm | Report comment
Wow! Commanding Jewel has pounced on them, peeling off the tempo to win decisively. Damien Oliver wins this Group 1 race for a fifth time. Brilliant ride, supreme filly. Well planned ride.
Gee she stepped up. Huge today – she produced that PB that was going to beat the rest today.
I backed her too, it’s my shout Roarers!
Dear Demi takes second, did it tough from out wide.
Zydeco takes third, in a good result, while Longport did early work and held on for fourth.
8, 1, 15, 2 the placings.
3:44pm
Bondy. said | 3:44pm | Report comment
She’ll go on to the oaks now. good confident ride by Olly, Tristan. What a price 7 @8′s
3:46pm
Bondy. said | 3:46pm | Report comment
That owner on telle he owend Starspangledbanner.
3:47pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:47pm | Report comment
She paid around $7.50 on the local tote, and around $8.10 in NSW.
3:48pm
Bondy. said | 3:48pm | Report comment
Tristan, I genuinely moved her out of my stable on the weekend I hope that isnt an omen for the weekend.
3:51pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:51pm | Report comment
Well, in all fairness, she wasn’t exactly a trademark Good Thing, and you could’ve made a case for practically 8-10 runners today. She stepped up though and she’s now a Group 1 winner as a 3 year old.
3:42pm
Bondy. said | 3:42pm | Report comment
Oh no STOP. good luck to her, almost another win for the sparkie from Cessnock mate.
3:45pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:45pm | Report comment
Longport, Tinkler’s horse, did well, but CJ was huge.
3:47pm
Bondy. said | 3:47pm | Report comment
They’ll probably both go to the oaks .
3:41pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:41pm | Report comment
Swing for home, massively open race, every horse a chance it seems…
3:41pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:41pm | Report comment
Not too much pace, Longport, Excitus leading
3:41pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:41pm | Report comment
All in, ready to go and they’re off! Dear Demi from wide out started slowly… Longport pushes to the front doing some work early…
3:39pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:39pm | Report comment
Some late money for Zydeco, but it’s a wide betting race.
3:38pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:38pm | Report comment
Horses are beginning to load now, just a few ticks away from the start.
3:38pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:38pm | Report comment
Love For Ransom‘s trainer Greg Eurell tells the TV that she’s been aimed at this race – and agrees she’s a Group 1 horse, if not now, then later on.
3:36pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:36pm | Report comment
Trainer of Commanding Jewel, Leon Corstens, said he’s happy with her, has the draw in her favour and is hopeful.
3:35pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:35pm | Report comment
Balaclava Lady the pick of the yard according to TVN. Lovely looking filly.
3:35pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:35pm | Report comment
Money hasn’t really gone in any direction before the race.
3:34pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:34pm | Report comment
Don’t forget the Caulfield Cup barrier draw was today – and it’s quite meaningful for the favourites – most have been drawn way out.
> Read Andrew Hawkin’s thoughts on the draw
3:30pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:30pm | Report comment
So, there’s plenty to like about a number of runners, and we’re about 10 minutes away from the start.
3:28pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:28pm | Report comment
I’ve followed Commanding Jewel closely during the Spring, with the Atlantic Jewel connection. She’s been honest and won her first two, but while she hasn’t been out of the placings she’d need to record a big step-up and PB to win this. She’s at around $7, which is a little short for me, but she’s every chance. Small query over the 1600m, she might be better at a shorter distance.
Lady Of Harrods has also been one to watch, after The Roar’s AFL expert and keen punter Cam Rose picked her at $30 or more to win in his first racing preview. She’s beat Commanding Jewel last start.
Molto Bene looks great in the yard, and she will run well here. Big chance.
3:38pm
Bondy. said | 3:38pm | Report comment
I traded her “CJ” out on the weekend mate i’m filthy I thought they wouldnt run her over a mile. Well done mate.
3:51pm
Bondy. said | 3:51pm | Report comment
I was going to mention Cam tipping her.
3:23pm
Tristan Rayner said | 3:23pm | Report comment
Good afternoon and welcome to our live blog of the Thousand Guineas in what is the most open race. We just haven’t had any standout fillies this season and some of the better form analysts have struggled to pick a clear winner. Therefore, punters are chasing value and there’s plenty in double-figure odds who look good.
Many horses with a chance, but our man Sh00ter, who wrote the preview for us, has Molto Bene on top, based on his speed prediction.
The preceeding races haven’t told us too much – we’ve seen them come from behind to win and race away while at the front. The track appears to be playing fair.