Thousand Guineas: Preview, tips, live blog
It is the fillies turn in the 1600m Group 1 Thousand Guineas in an open race. Join us for live updates and blog of the feature race in the middle of the Caulfield Carnival, with the fillies jumping at 3:40pm AEDT.
The Caulfield Carnival got off to a wonderful start on Saturday with the running of three Group 1’s including the feature Caulfield Guineas, Toorak Handicap and Caulfield Stakes.
In an almighty upset, Black Caviar’s half brother All Too Hard beat the seemingly invincible Pierro in the stallion making Guineas.
Once run on Caulfield Cup day, the Thousand Guineas for three-year-olds fillies is run over a mile with set weights, and was moved to the middle of the week in 1988 to string together the Carnival over a week.
It is the Melbourne Racing Club’s premier event for fillies carrying a prize pool of $500,000. Many of the contenders are looking to go on to the Group 1 Crown Oaks at Flemington on the penultimate day of the Flemington Carnival.
Given the set weights conditions, an outstanding filly will often dominate this race on her way to winning the Crown Oaks as well.
Last year’s winner Atlantic Jewel beat Mosheen by 3 lengths before injury struck her down as unbackable favourite in the Crown Oaks.
Other former winners include Yosei (2010), Miss Finland (2006), Alinghi (2004), Special Harmony (2003) and Northwood Plume (1994). Six fillies have gone on to complete the Thousand Guineas-Crown Oaks double, the last being Miss Finland.
Race preview: This year there is no genuine standout in the Thousand Guineas Field. A number of pre-race favourites including Nechita, Norzita, Commanding Jewel (Atlantic Jewel’s half sister) and Love For Ransom have fallen out of favor, with only the latter pair taking their places in the field of 16.
It is a tricky race to assess with tempo likely to decide the chances of a number of key runners. A fast tempo as was the case in the Caulfield Guineas on Saturday, sets the race up for the backmarkers including Dear Demi (barrier 17), Members Joy (barrier 10), Molto Bene (barrier 5), Love for Ransom (barrier 15) and Stella Lante (barrier 2).
However the preceding filly’s races in Melbourne have been run at a slower tempo allowing Lady of Harrods (‘Tquil Star’ over 1400m) and Maybe Discrete (‘Edward Manifold’ over 1600m) to be handy and win.
Sydney speedster Longport at $11 (barrier 12) ridden by aggressive jockey Craig Newitt should ensure a solid tempo is set. The John Thompson trained filly ran an admirable second to Norzita at Randwick over a mile last start and could figure in the finish again. Likely to be handy but unsuited by a fast tempo are Lady of Harrods (barrier 3), Maybe Discreet (barrier 9) and Commanding Jewel (barrier 8).
I believe this enhances the chances of Molto Bene at $4.50 (defeated by Lady of Harrods), Love For Ransom at $7.50 and Stella Lante at $17 (defeated by Balaklava Lady) reversing the results. The latter pair gets 5kg and 4kg weight relief off Balaklava Lady at $35, but at the price she still represents some value.
Other value runners could be Dear Demi at $17 (with form to Pierro and Norzita) and Big Chill at $26 who gets 5kg weight relief off Balaklava Lady for a 1.25 length defeat.
(Tips and preview provided by Sh00ter.)
1. Molto Bene (#9)
2. Love For Ransom (#11)
3. Stella Lante (#12)
4. Longport (#2)
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