Cox Plate 2012: Preview, top tips and live blog
Editor 
Pierro has been retired from racing. AAP Image/Paul Miller
The WS Cox Plate of 2012 – the weight-for-age championship of Australasia – is upon us once more and the honour roll of winners consists of a ‘who’s who’ throughout Australasian racing.
This year’s edition features the innocent fairytale of three young horses tackling the older ones and all have legitimate claims on this race.
If they can repeat the success of So You Think who was the last three year old to win the Cox Plate, they will skyrocket into the top echelon of thoroughbred race horses.
Let’s take a look at each of the runners.
1.Shoot Out
One of the proven WFA runners in this field, his last start in the G1 Epsom Handicap can be forgiven when he ran as the top weight and was overrun by horses carrying 6kg less than him.
He ran fourth in this race last year but is form this year is better than the lead up to his previous attempt. This preparation he has won the G1 George Main Stakes impressively under WFA conditions.
From barrier four he’ll settle midfield and get cover throughout the race.
When interviewed during the week, jockey Hugh Bowman hardly exuded confidence when he flat out said he does not expect Shoot Out to win but believes a place is a good chance if he gets luck in the running.
That pretty much sums up this horses form. If it rains strongly however, Shoot Out is the horse to watch. He loves a wet track.
2. Sincero
Supporting this horse is one of the most frustrating things for punters. 18 months ago he had a golden patch where he was establishing himself as one of Australia’s best horses but this spring when concerns were raised about his ability to run the Melbourne direction, he came out and reproduced that old form by winning the G1 Memsie Stakes at Flemington.
He then went on to run a worse race when fifth in the G1 Underwood Stakes which confirmed his inability to run beyond 1600m.
He then came out and ran third in the G1 Caulfield Stakes behind Ocean Park and Alcopop who went on to run second in the Caulfield Cup. Analysing this horse’s form creates headaches because he offers no consistency.
It seems the best analysis is to avoid him beyond 1600m, where he is supreme. This is 2040m.
From 25 starts he has 12 wins for just one second and one third placing. He either wins or he doesn’t. He won’t win this.
3. Glass Harmonium
He’s had two runs this preparation and they’ve both been shockers. Fortunately for him however, they were under handicap conditions when he carried big weights against lightweight fields in races of lesser quality than this field.
The winner of last year’s G1 Mackinnon Stakes, he’s a proven WFA horse against Australia’s best and would have run a good race in last year’s Cox Plate had he not missed the start.
His best races are run from the front and from barrier two, that’s where he’ll go when the gates open.
He’ll do his best to control the tempo of the race but there will be plenty of speed coming from the back of the field when they turn for home and he won’t be able to keep up with them.
4. Green Moon
While his form is appealing and always runs well in the big races, there’s question marks over this horse’s ability to run under WFA conditions since his planned finale has always been the Melbourne Cup.
He won the G1 Turnbull Stakes at his last start but carries 3.5kg more here.
If the Melbourne Cup truly is the sole interest of owner Lloyd Williams who is not concerned about the prize money here, a win would mean a penalty in the Melbourne Cup which would be disastrous.
He’ll still run a good race and probably figure in the placings but there are horses much more desperate to win this race than Green Moon.
5. Rekindled Interest
Running third in this race last year, he is the track specialist in the field and has never run a bad race at Moonee Valley. His preparation this year has not been as good as it was last year with three starts returning a tenth, third and tenth finish.
His best run was his only WFA run in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes where he stormed home from the back of the field for a respectable third.
He pretty much has the worst form in this field but he simply can’t be written off because of his record at the track.
He’s going to be a popular smokey selection because he can run this distance, this track and this race, but it would take a very confident punter to back him outright.
6. Linton
He’s had two starts this preparation since moving stables to the John Sadler yard but looks to have taken a step backwards. He’s never regained the form he showed two years ago and most of the runners in this race have shown better form.
Linton started this preparation running fourth in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes but took a step backwards in his next start when he ran eleventh in the G1 Turnbull Stakes.
In the Turnbull when the turned for home, he simply stood still and could not go with them and was swamped very early in the straight.
He’s been given no luck having drawn the widest barrier so he’s either going to have to work very hard early or he’ll trail the field all the way home.
7. Happy Trails
Although he won the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes against quality opposition under WFA conditions at his last start, he limped over the line because the horses that ran second and third (Green Moon and Rekindled Interest) both ran a much faster final 400m than Happy Trails.
An increase of 10m would have seen Happy Trails pipped at the post because he’s not bred to run 2040m. His best distance is 1400m and stepping up to 1600m looked his limit.
He’s had over a month off from that run and he does his best work backing up so the long break may not suit. In the interview Glen Boss gave after the Dato win, he said the horse was really pushed to its limit over the final 100m and that he expected Happy Trails to go to the Emirates rather than the Cox Plate.
He’s beaten most of the horses in this field before but they’ve been rapidly improving over the past month while Happy Trails has been resting.
8. Ethiopia
This lightly raced 4yo is dying for a big run after being stalled in the running of his only two starts this season. He ran seventh in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes before finishing sixth in the G1 Turnbull Stakes.
He looks to be seeking a longer trip than 2040m which he’ll get when he runs in the Melbourne Cup which he’s already qualified for.
He’ll run an honest race today but everything he’s done suggests he is a genuine stayer who will use this as a warm up for the first Tuesday of November. He won’t win, and a place would be a stretch.
9. Ocean Park
The G1 Caulfield Stakes has over time proved to be the best form race for the Cox Plate and Ocean Park won that in what was suggested to be the weakest field in the history of the race.
Thoughts on that have changed however after the runner up Alcopop ran a gallant second in the Caulfield Cup.
This New Zealand raider has won his last three starts which have all been at WFA condition and he’s proven he can run this distance while carrying weight.
He’ll settle midfield and make his charge around the 400m mark. They’ll chase him to the post and he’ll be right there at the end if beaten.
10. More Joyous
She ran didn’t handle a big weight last start in the G1 Toorak Handicap, overrun by horses carrying 8kg less.
She’ll benefit in this race with everyone else asked to carry a big load but trainer Gai Waterhouse’s decision to select barrier 11 for the champion mare suggests a lack of confidence in More Joyous.
The wide barrier selection should see her stroll to the front and work as a pacemaker for the stable’s three year olds, Pierro and Proisir.
More Joyous has never looked anywhere near as good at 2000m as she does at 1600m so all the signs suggest she will not win this race. Her previous wins at WFA level have been against fields of lesser quality than here. When she comes up against the boys, she generally struggles.
11. Southern Speed
If you’re willing to forgive her last run in the G1 Turnbull Stakes when she beat just one horse home, she’s a slight chance in this.
She proved she can run at WFA level when she ran fourth in the G1 Underwood Stakes behind Ocean Park. When Glen Boss pulled her up after the Turnbull, he was adamant there was physically something wrong with the mare but she was given the all clear following a vet inspection.
Having won the Caulfield Cup last year with a light weight she has moved past the pigeon hole of being solely a handicapper with an impressive win in the G2 Makybe Diva Stakes under WFA conditions.
If there is genuinely nothing wrong with her, she is at big overs on the fixed odds market and deserves more respect. Barrier 13 will be no problem because she has run well from the back of the field before. If she stays around the $41 mark, throw all your loose change on her to run a place.
12. Pierro
He was the hot favourite in the G1 Caulfield Guineas where he was beaten due to a bad gate and bad ride. His entire preparation has been leading up to this race and his inability to kick in the Guineas can be attributed to the bad ride he was given at the start.
That won’t happen today with a new jockey aboard and more importantly, he won’t be pushed to the front of the field thanks to stable mate More Joyous.
He’ll get a lovely run in the race and should have something left in him when he comes around the final bend. He’s expected to start the race as favourite and will be given cover in running but his lack of acceleration will be the biggest concern.
Throw him into the exotics if you can spare it but his lack of experience against better quality opposition make him just too unpredictable to back him with confidence.
13. All Too Hard
Still undefeated in Melbourne, the colt put in a super effort to pull of the biggest of upsets in the G1 Caulfield Guineas when he chased down Pierro.
He gets the big weight drop here but running 2040m is his biggest concern. He’s not bred to run this distance and his half sister Black Caviar would be unlikely to pull of this distance.
He has lined up against Shoot Out at WFA conditions two starts ago which some may forgive since he missed the start. He fought to the line in that race but was still beaten comfortably by the older horses and he looked to have run his grand final in the Guineas.
The last horse to win the Caulfield Guineas and Cox Plate in the same year was Red Anchor in 1984 and he looked a better horse than All Too Hard.
14. Proisir
Many punters don’t believe he should even be in this race but of the three year olds, he’s the only one who has run the distance before. He was beaten in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m by It’s A Dundeel who flew home like very few three year olds can. Proisir was given a shocking ride in that race but still managed to run a narrow second.
Throughout the week he has been doing track work with More Joyous and has looked better than the mare. He’ll get a very generous weight claim here and will be very relaxed after four weeks off compared to Pierro and All Too hard who both dogged it out to the line in the Caulfield Guineas two weeks ago. Proisir is bred to run this distance and he’s the best of the chances among the three year olds and deserves respect in trifectas.
Tip
Although this is far from the best fields we have seen for a Cox Plate, it is extremely even with little separating the top five horses. Ocean Park has the best WFA form in this race and has ticked all the boxes required to win this race.
Proisir is the second elect for me and I think he shows the most credentials among the three year olds. Carrying no weight, he’ll have a lovely run in the race with the Waterhouse stable mates all working together. With the vets clearing Southern Speed of any physical problems, we can forgive her last run and she’s very capable of running third.
I’ll throw Rekindled Interest in for fourth simply because he can’t be ignored in this race but has very average form compared against the rest of the field.
1. Ocean Park
2. Proisir
3. Southern Speed
4. Rekindled Interest
The Cox Plate will be run at 5.15pm and will be televised on Channel 9, Sky Racing and TVN.
Preview and tips have been provided by Alfred Chan who can be found on Twitter @AlfredC91.
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The Crowd Says (26) | Page 1 of Comments
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5:34pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:34pm | Report comment
That ends our live coverage of the event – but the winner was tipped here by Alfred – stick with him, Roarers. We’ll have his thoughts on the upcoming big races including the Melbourne Cup!
5:27pm
Bondy. said | 5:27pm | Report comment
I was on all to hard,just missed. Well done mate.
5:23pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:23pm | Report comment
Read the post-race report: Cox Plate 2012: Winner Ocean Park beats All Too Hard
5:19pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:19pm | Report comment
2012 Cox Plate results
1st. Ocean Park
2nd. All Too Hard
3rd Pierro
4th Ethiopia
Last: Rekindled Interest
Racetime: 2.04.14
5:18pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:18pm | Report comment
The three year olds are the leaders. All Too Hard leads, Ocean Park tackling him – Ocean Park grabs it!
5:17pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:17pm | Report comment
Here come the runs! Coming to the home turn.
5:17pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:17pm | Report comment
Proisir leads, Ethiopia second, next All Too Hard, More Joyous deep, Happy Trails, Pierro, Rekindled Interest, Ocean Park, Sincero, Southern Speed, Linton last
5:16pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:16pm | Report comment
We’re off!
Pierro jumped out well, More Joyous kicking up but 5W – Ethiopia up early. Linton last. Ethiopia leads, big surprise. Proisir has kicked up to lead.
5:15pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:15pm | Report comment
Almost all the runners in – they got Glass Harmonium in well. No troubles. Just Linton to move in.
5:13pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:13pm | Report comment
Claire Lindop reporting from behind the barriers says Pierro is getting a little hot, says Southern Speed is full of beans and All Too Hard is one of the best in the flesh.
5:12pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:12pm | Report comment
Runners heading to the barriers now.
5:10pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:10pm | Report comment
The national anthem is now being sung by Alana Conway – a few sound problems early but she’s belting it out well. We’re just moments away.
5:11pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:11pm | Report comment
Big cheer for her from the appreciative crowd.
5:09pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:09pm | Report comment
The odds are there if you want to back yourself and find a winner, but I could have any of ten horses I think and only three give you any money back.
5:05pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:05pm | Report comment
We’re looking at all the runners out in the yard. It’s such a deep field – only Glass Harmonium and Linton are given no hope, while Happy Trails, Sincero, Rekindled Interest (who loves this track and ran a place – only follow him at MV, nowhere else) and Southern Speed aren’t given much consideration.
I’ve followed Linton closely for years – he’d need a huge personal best to win at Moonee Valley today but he does enjoy the track. Most think he can’t get close. Probably. I don’t think he’ll win, but he’s at huge odds for a place. He’s out wide and will be ridden at the back. Probably fairly, but I’m including him in multiples – he adds a lot of value.
5:02pm
Tristan Rayner said | 5:02pm | Report comment
Green Moon is the favourite for the race at $5, with Pierro the next best at $5.5.
4:59pm
Tristan Rayner said | 4:59pm | Report comment
The horses will come out from the mounting yard to a mighty cheer from the (increasingly inebriated) crowd shortly
4:54pm
Tristan Rayner said | 4:54pm | Report comment
There’s plenty of other stories too – Kiwi Ocean Park who has been strong winning Group 1s the Underwood and the Caulfield Stakes.
Green Moon is another with a hot chance after winning the Turnbull and has blossomed this preparation. He’ll be running home late, and will be looking for a tough fast-tempo race.
Southern Speed bypassed the Caulfield Cup for the Cox Plate and is out of favour with punters after her last start, finishing second last. But connections have asked punters to forget her run after her action was amiss.
4:50pm
Tristan Rayner said | 4:50pm | Report comment
The other Waterhouse horse is of course, More Joyous. Gai and owner John Singleton were at war this week, after Gai chose barrier 11 for More Joyous, against the wishes of the baffled owner – who had asked for a barrier around between 4 and 6.
4:49pm
Tristan Rayner said | 4:49pm | Report comment
There are some potentially good stories here in the 2012 race.
One in particular is the three year olds in Pierro, All Too Hard and Proisir.
In the weight-for-age conditions, they all come carrying 49.5kg which is an advantage at the 2040m.
Pierro, trained by Gai Waterhouse, is a hugely promising colt which was undefeated before his last start – beaten by Black Caviar’s half-brother All Too Hard in the Caulfield Guineas.
In Pierro’s favour is that Guineas winners have terrible records in the Cox Plate and had plenty of excuses after being used up early to get to the front of the race.
Proisir is also Waterhouse trained and was second in the 2000m Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney, beaten by Derby favourite It’s A Dundeel. However, the tempo in that race did not suit and the horse has a real kick. He’s in his first preparation which is almost unheard of.
4:46pm
Tristan Rayner said | 4:46pm | Report comment
News just in: Darryl Braithwaithe will not be singing “On The Horses” before the cup. Tragedy for the punters who always enjoy belting that out with a can in one hand and the formguide in the other. We’ll be investigating.
4:42pm
Tristan Rayner said | 4:42pm | Report comment
The track is overcast but it has been playing fair – leaders have been run down by backmarkers and we’ve seen them run well all across the track.
4:41pm
Tristan Rayner said | 4:41pm | Report comment
We’ve just seen a good race in the Group 2 Crystal Mile, with mare Silent Achiever swooping home late to beat old favourite Rangirangdoo home – who I was on!
4:39pm
Tristan Rayner said | 4:39pm | Report comment
Thanks to Alfred for his runner-by-runner preview of the big race – it’s a pretty good looking race we have here, and I can see there being quite a few good chances in the race and many reasons to back one you like.
4:37pm
Tristan Rayner said | 4:37pm | Report comment
Good afternoon all and welcome to The Roar’s live blog of the 2012 Cox Plate.
1:40pm
Macca said | 1:40pm | Report comment
Nice in-depth analysis Alfred. I’m with you on Ocean Park today. I liked Jimmy Choux last year and I think Ocean Park has even better formlines here. The bookies have me scratching my head as to why he is not the favourite. He has not put a foot wrong and Alcopop showed the strength of the Yalumba race.