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Anticipation can do funny things to the average Australian sports fan (and we in the media, to be fair), particularly when an extended length of time elapses before said event actually begins properly.
Time lends itself to over-analysis and, often, the premature writing off of any hopes of success.
Regardless of whether it’s human nature to be negative, or whether it’s just good, old-fashioned tall poppy-pruning, it’s going to be a big couple of weeks coming up for…
Damien Oliver
Fresh from an impressive Victoria Derby win on Fiveandahalfstar, Oliver will climb aboard 2010 Melbourne Cup winner, Americain, for the 2012 edition this afternoon at Flemington. Should Americain salute, it would be Oliver’s third Melbourne Cup and would come ten years after his last win, on Media Puzzle, won only days after the death of his brother Jason in a race fall.
Oliver also gets a shot at the Derby-Cup double, something that’s only been done once in the last 20 years, when Corey Brown took Monaco Consul and Shocking past the respective posts first in 2009.
But clouding in over all this possible glory and personal triumph, is the investigation into Oliver’s alleged $10,000 bet placed on an opposing horse in a race more than two years ago. The revelation of the bet cost Oliver his original Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup rides, but a guilty finding and expected lengthy suspension could yet cost him so much more.
Ian Crook
Roar regulars will know I allow myself one splurge on football a year and, after switching on the Central Coast-Sydney FC game on Saturday night and almost falling over at the score, it seems about right to jump on this bandwagon.
The ‘Del Piero effect’ has already hooked me in as a viewer, but the Sydney FC coach has a big job ahead of him to make sure the tens of thousands of new fans and semi-interested viewers – like me – aren’t lost as quickly as they emerged.
You’d like to hope the 7-2 loss to the Mariners was a one-off, but Crook needs to remember Sydney has a nasty habit of losing interest in under-performers (ask Michael Foley). Some inspiring wins over the next few weeks would be highly recommended.
Ed Cowan
The popular perception at the moment is that the likable Test opener has barely scored a run since making his Test debut on Boxing Day last summer, and is horribly out of form. The reality, as is often the case, is slightly different to this.
The popular perception overlooks that Cowan’s Test record thus far is not too different to his overall First Class record. He made a ton for Gloucestershire in his brief stint in County cricket, topped the run-scoring and averages for Australia A’s tour of England in July and August, and has only two single-figure scores so far in ten knocks for Tasmania this season.
It is true that since his debut against India he’s made only a couple of First Class hundreds, and a handful of 50s in all forms. His main issue seems to be not going on with the countless starts he makes, which isn’t exactly a form issue, but rather an application and concentration issue.
On the other hand, his opening partner, David Warner, made 2 and 39 for NSW in their outright loss to Queensland on the weekend, in what was his first sighting of a red ball since he left the Caribbean in April. In that time, he’s made an IPL hundred, one ODI and a couple of World T20 50s, and has played only three games – all Twenty20s – since the start of October.
If Cowan is under pressure from the likes of Phillip Hughes and Rob Quiney, then surely Warner has to be in the same boat.
The ageing warriors
With my own birthday wedged neatly in between those of Ricky Ponting’s and Mike Hussey’s, I dare not refer to these two stalwarts as ‘old’. But it’s fair to say they’re getting on a bit.
Realistically, both Ponting and Hussey have to be seen as series-to-series propositions. Consistent runs are their only currency, and can be their only saviour. Fortunately, both go into the first Test in reasonable touch, even if Hussey has also been locked in Twenty20 mode for the last few months. Ponting comes in with a couple of Shield 50s and an unbeaten 162* against two thirds of the Australian Test attack in Melbourne.
Nathan Lyon
Eight wickets for 539 in seven one-and four-day games isn’t exactly the best form to take into a Test series against the best batting side in world cricket, but that’s the form line Australia’s stated number one spinner brings with him.
With Shane Watson now missing from the side to play in Brisbane, the make-up of Australia’s attack becomes something of an unknown quantity again. The temptation to play four specialist quicks will undoubtedly swell again, but then over rates and lack of variety becomes an issue.
Lyon did well in Brisbane last year against New Zealand, and the great SK Warne was often drawn to say, “if it’ll seam, it’ll spin.” I’d play Lyon against the Proteas, but he’ll need to bowl a lot better than he’s shown so far this summer.
Nick Phipps
Suddenly the best scrumhalf in Australia, Phipps will go into Sunday morning’s game against France (AEDT time) to begin a tour that could make or break his Wallaby career going forward.
It can’t have done much for his confidence that Wallaby coach, Robbie Deans, explored the possibility of recalling Luke Burgess from French rugby, in what would’ve been an unprecedented move for Australian Rugby.
Should Phipps fire during the Spring tour, it will cement his place as one of the leading number 9s in the country, but if he suddenly finds himself benched behind veteran Brett Sheehan, there’s no predicting how far down the pecking order he could fall.
And in a Lions Tour year, that’s less than ideal.