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There are still four Tests to be played, half a first-class season remaining here at home and 194 days until next year’s Ashes series begins.
So when you’re on holidays and it’s 40 degrees in Perth, what better way to spend an hour than gazing into a crystal ball and trying to frame a squad to tour the Old Dart.
Let’s start by assuming that the National Selection Panel goes with a 17-man touring party and let’s begin with the batting.
There are some obvious must-picks starting with skipper Michael Clarke who has taken his personal game to a new level since being elevated to the captaincy.
In his 20 matches at the helm he has scored eight centuries and averaged 71.4.
And aside from his form with the willow he has proven to be an innovative and aggressive skipper who is willing to gamble with declarations and the use of his various bowling options.
Interestingly, whilst his 1595 runs in the calendar year is a new Australian record, the second most prolific batsmen in world cricket through 2012 has been his England counterpart Alastair Cook, who amassed 1249 runs.
The form of both will have a large bearing on the outcome of the series.
Age proved a factor for Ricky Ponting this summer, but not so Michael Hussey, who at 37, has scored three centuries.
He is the anchor of the middle order and his ability to bat with the tail will again be crucial.
While some people are still unconvinced by David Warner’s place at the top of the order long term, there is no debating that he is the best of the current openers in Australia.
On the small English grounds he could prove a major thorn in the English side.
I would also be imploring him to work on his part-time leg-spinners as much as possible given England’s historic struggle with wrist-spinners.
Shane Watson will definitely be chosen to tour but what role he fills is still largely undecided.
It was stated by CA’s high performance manager Pat Howard a few weeks ago that to be selected he had to be able to bat and bowl.
Perhaps it is time though to ask him to focus entirely on his batting given his predilection to breaking down with ball in hand.
For mine, he would be best suited to opening alongside Warner for it is where he has produced his best and most consistent performances.
If he is still chosen as an all-rounder, Ed Cowan is likely to get the nod to remain at the top of the order despite a rather lacklustre showing through his first nine Tests – 474 runs at just 31.6.
He will turn 31 during the campaign and given his first-class career average is just 40.1 his longevity in the line-up has to be questioned.
His next four Test outings may decide his fate, either way, pre-Ashes.
Usman Khawaja deserves another opportunity, as highlighted by his selection once again as cover for Clarke for the SCG Test.
At 26 and with a first-class career average of 43, he is one of the more successful fringe players in the country.
The fact he has already tasted the pressure of the Test arena will also be in his favour.
Phil Hughes will also get the nod and will be desperate to atone for his last tour where he was cast into the international wilderness.
He has made slight technical adjustments to his game and seems to be heading in the right direction, running between the wickets aside.
The selectors know what he can do when on song – two centuries in his second Test versus South Africa is testament to that – and he will be very much in the mix for the number three slot.
A large problem confronting the selectors is the current dearth of batsmen in Sheffield Shield ranks who are demanding consideration.
On that basis, I would take Alex Doolan, who has had a fine season, boasting a first-class average of 81.4, including a knock of 161no for Australia ‘A’ against the world number one Proteas.
As the second all-rounder, I would lean in favour of Andrew McDonald.
A ‘veteran’ of four Tests he is a true all-rounder with a first-class average of 39.8 with the bat, including 11 centuries, and 201 wickets at 28.6.
His high-arm action and ability to swing the ball could be handy, if required, in England.
At 25, and still learning his game, I would leave Moises Henriques at home in favour of McDonald, a more seasoned campaigner.
In a similar vein, I would choose Brad Haddin as the second ‘keeper.
He has displayed fine form with the bat for New South Wales this season, averaging 67.4.
If Matthew Wade fails to perform behind the stumps it is imperative that an experienced man takes his place, hence for mine, no Tim Paine or Chris Hartley.
A lack of quality spin options in Australia at present sees Nathan Lyon chosen as the only specialist.
Now, to the quicks.
The major problem here is fitness and injury concerns.
With that in mind, one of either James Pattinson or Pat Cummins is worth the risk.
Given Cummins has hardly bowled a red ball in anger since his Test debut two years ago, it has to be Pattinson.
From seven Tests, his 31 wickets at 22.1 proves he is a potential match winner.
Warhorse Peter Siddle is a certainty, so too in my mind are Mitchell Starc and Jackson Bird.
Starc could be a massive handful with his left-arm in-swing and Bird has shown over the last two seasons, and one Test, that he has the makings of a long term member of the Australian attack.
Don’t be surprised if he is Australia’s most successful Ashes tourist.
That leaves the fifth pace position.
Mitchell Johnson will get the nod of approval despite his disastrous showing last time around.
In two Tests this summer he has shown what he is capable of – 102 runs at 51, 12 wickets at 20, a man-of-the-match at the MCG and two Sri Lankan broken hands.
But, he will be given little margin for error.
If he plays early in the series, bleeds runs and lacks penetration, he will be quickly discarded.
So there you have it.
It is a somewhat dicey prospect choosing a squad this far out especially with the Australian rooms often looking like a triage ward.
But, if I get it horribly wrong (read – probably will!), I will just blame the fact that my crystal ball had a crack in it!
So, my 17 – Clarke, Watson, Hussey, Cowan, Warner, Hughes, Khawaja, Doolan, McDonald, Wade, Haddin, Lyon, Siddle, Pattinson, Starc, Bird, Johnson.
Over to you Roarers!
After 21 years as a sports broadcaster with the ABC, since mid-2011 Glenn Mitchell has been freelancing in the electronic and written media. He is an ambassador for mental health in Australia, and tweets from @mitchellglenn.
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December 29th 2012 @ 2:00am
Jason said | December 29th 2012 @ 2:00am | Report comment
It’s all really crystal ball stuff until the India tour. There is plenty of time between now and selection time for someone to play themselves in or out of form.
But, I don’t see Doolan or McDonald getting on the plane. Maxwell seems to be the next project for the NSP so he might go as the back up all rounder/ second spinner. The young gun batsman is hard to pick as no one is really in form. Bailey might go (although he’s not young) because he will at least be solid. I’d love Joe Burns to hit a couple of tons at the end of the Shield season though and really demand a spot.
Overall though, that batting is underwhelming. If Watson is injured or marked NTPTFAA, David Hussey could be an left field selection – he has enormous English experience and it’s not like we wouldn’t be taking a stack of youngsters anyway. He will need to show some Shield form though.
Also, no point having 36 year old Haddin as a bag carrier. Better off with Paine (if fit) or more likely Neville.
The bowling looks pretty close though. I actually don’t think Johnson will go if one of Cummins or Hazlewood are fit. Johnson isn’t in the first choice pace line up so again, the selectors might prefer to take one of the others for the experience and tell Johnson to stay fit for when the inevitable injuries arise.
I do worry about not having a second spinner though. The tracks are more likely to be spin friendly given they have Swann and Monty. If Lyon is our only choice, he will be targetted by the likes of KP and Prior early in the series to try to knock his confidence. If he loses form we are massively exposed. Maxwell might be OK as a backup because spin bowling isn’t the only string in his bow. But I really don’t see anyone else close to putting their hand up.
December 29th 2012 @ 2:12am
Glenn Mitchell said | December 29th 2012 @ 2:12am | Report comment
David Hussey I think has very little chance of selection given his age and a first-class average of 17 this season. He will go down however, as one of the most unlucky players to have not worn a baggy green given his fine overall record but alas, time has passed him by.
December 29th 2012 @ 10:17am
Jason said | December 29th 2012 @ 10:17am | Report comment
Well I’m not saying that David Hussey will go but given that he knows the conditions and can play spin and can bowl a few overs, a good second half of the Shield season (or even in the limited overs stuff) might get him a touring gig. Age shouldn’t be an issue as he is younger than his brother!
December 29th 2012 @ 2:02pm
Uncle Argyle said | December 29th 2012 @ 2:02pm | Report comment
Similar to Jamie Siddons or did he get a cap?
December 29th 2012 @ 8:54pm
Glenn Mitchell said | December 29th 2012 @ 8:54pm | Report comment
Siddons played one ODI and was 12th man for a Test. Fine record in first-class arena. One of the more unlucky players not to have worn the baggy green.
January 8th 2013 @ 6:41pm
Dan Ced said | January 8th 2013 @ 6:41pm | Report comment
I’d almost call that standard Redbacks treatment, but I’m biased, and they gave Blewett and Gilly a couple of chances. I think Boof was a bit hard done by.
I think Klinger has been pretty unlucky since he joined the Redbacks not to get in one of the AUS sides. I hope he is in their thoughts for T20 selection with his very solid Big Bash campaign so far.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:24pm
Behold said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:24pm | Report comment
David Hussey is a proven non performer on the international stage. A dominant force for Victory but the comparison between his State level contribution and his international ones is embarrassing.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:24pm
Behold said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:24pm | Report comment
David Hussey is a proven non performer on the international stage. A dominant force for Victory but the comparison between his State level contribution and his international ones is embarrassing.
December 29th 2012 @ 2:07am
langou said | December 29th 2012 @ 2:07am | Report comment
First thing I would say is that we need more than one spinner. Going into a test match on a dry turner with four quicks because your one spinner got injured the day before the test is not on.
Personaly I am looking forward to the Indian series as much as the Ashes and imagine we will be playing two spinners in those Tests so we should have more of an idea by then on who the second spinner will be.
December 29th 2012 @ 2:39am
Glenn Mitchell said | December 29th 2012 @ 2:39am | Report comment
I am not too sure how many dry turners there will be during the series. Panesar had success in India but he was very much a horses for courses selection and I don’t see the courses being the same back home for him. I don’t think England will field anyone other than Swann too often in the spin department.
December 30th 2012 @ 1:08am
Behold said | December 30th 2012 @ 1:08am | Report comment
They may consider putting out a few dry wickets, with Australia being fairly weak against spin and our spinner not really scaring anyone at present. If Holland has recovered he is the most likely but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Zampa or Boyce doesn’t get a trip to India and then a trip to England. SO’K has a decent record in first class cricket but I am not sure if the selectors even have him on their radar after he was dropped from the t20 squad 18-24 months ago.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:23am
SIdeline Commentator said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:23am | Report comment
Remember that both Warner and Clarkey can give it a tweak, providing their backs hold up.
December 29th 2012 @ 2:16am
TheGenuineTailender said | December 29th 2012 @ 2:16am | Report comment
What’s the harm in picking a bigger squad. Say up to 20 players? I doubt it would happen but I’d like to see Beer, Johnson, Paine etc.
December 29th 2012 @ 2:16am
TheGenuineTailender said | December 29th 2012 @ 2:16am | Report comment
What’s the harm in picking a bigger squad. Say up to 20 players? I doubt it would happen but I’d like to see Beer, Johnson, Paine etc.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:27am
Glenn Mitchell said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:27am | Report comment
Unlike tours of old there are not many first-class matches played on Ashes tours. With a squad of 20 many of the players would merely be sitting around with no cricket at all.
December 29th 2012 @ 12:05pm
sheek said | December 29th 2012 @ 12:05pm | Report comment
Glenn/TGT,
Why not 20 players indeed!
When the first English team under HH Stephenson toured Australia in 1861/62, they selected just 12 players with the captain doubling as manager for 14 matches varying from two to four days.
The bodyline tour of 1932/33 saw England bring out 17 players, plus manager, assistant manager & scorer, for a 28 match tour of Ceylon, Australia & New Zealand, featuring five tests in Australia & two in NZ.
This was indeed the standard for most of the 20th century, with both England & Australia sending 17 players & 3 officials (more often than not) to each other’s country for an Ashes tour.
However, today in the early 21st century bigger is better & quantity has replaced quality across the board.
Twenty players & twelve assistants, especially with the pace bowlers rotation system & medical staff to assess them, is by no means out of keeping with modern trends.
December 29th 2012 @ 7:03am
Bazza said | December 29th 2012 @ 7:03am | Report comment
Off topic but will CA learn anything from this home season to date. The lesson has been that specialist coaches are a waste of time and a costly experiment. (in particular fast bowler coaches) What has been proven is a player having a mentor to assist him through difficult times. I mean ‘mentor’ in the true sense of what mentoring is about, not some Human Resource enforced scheme authorised by a High Performance Manager. Mentoring is about two people having, firstly, a ‘connection’ followed by a willingness by the mentor having the desire to help the ‘player’ and then the player ‘wanting’ to be helped by the the mentor. In years well gone by mentoring was a ‘natural’ occurrence, then along came Human Resource gurus who thought enforcing the idea onto people would work. All that did was prove HR gurus were dills. Example…Mitchell Johnson and DK Lillee.
December 29th 2012 @ 7:36am
LK said | December 29th 2012 @ 7:36am | Report comment
Why does Watson get a free pass? There is talk in the media this morning of Watson giving up bowling to save his test career, but his stats as a batsman aren’t good enough. If Watson does become a specialist batsman does he slot straight into the team? You have questioned Cowan’s place in the squad, he is the same age as Watson, is less injury prone and is a specialist opener. I don’t get it.
December 29th 2012 @ 9:47am
Crispy said | December 29th 2012 @ 9:47am | Report comment
Maybe Watson should give up batting and concentrate on his bowling. When he is bowling well he is a handful – I see him being particularly effective bowling stump to stump and potentially reverse swinging it, filling a Terry Alderman role. I agree that his batting isn’t up to scratch in test matches, a conversion rate of 2 centuries from 21 half centuries isn’t good enough. He should be spending less time in the gym too, actually concentrate on the muscles he needs to play cricket, not star in Brut advertisements.
January 2nd 2013 @ 6:40pm
Bob said | January 2nd 2013 @ 6:40pm | Report comment
Perhaps Watson could give up T20 and ODI cricket. that would certainly improve his test performances. Best thing the captain ever did was to stop playing T20.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:25am
SIdeline Commentator said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:25am | Report comment
I agree LK, Cowan out, Watson as full time opener. He couldn’t be a full time bowler, his leg’ would fall off or something.
December 29th 2012 @ 7:56am
Atawhai Drive said | December 29th 2012 @ 7:56am | Report comment
Glenn, by now you may have seen Malcolm Knox’s piece in the SMH.
He says that to prosper with the bat in India and England, we will need six world-class players of quality spin bowling. We have two, something that India and England will have noted. Unlike you, he thinks England will definitely select Swann and Panesar for most of the Ashes series, with pitches tailored to suit them. I agree.
Knox also says that to prosper with the ball in India and England, we’ll need two world-class spinners. We have none. Nathan Lyon is in the honest trier category and the rest of the cupboard is bare. We’ll need someone who turns the ball the opposite way from Lyon, but no one stands out. Where have all the leggies gone?
And we may not have an all-rounder either, if Watson gives bowling away. Johnson comes good with the bat occasionally, but an average in the low 20s is not that of an all-rounder.
December 29th 2012 @ 8:49am
Uncle Argyle said | December 29th 2012 @ 8:49am | Report comment
I can only echo the comments about the requirement of at least two test standard spinners for the Ashes campaign but we simply don’t have them. Lyon is ok but there is no other that springs to mind. He is a good combination bowler with the current pace attack but what if he were injured? I see no point in picking a sub standard spinner just to say we have two spinners on tour. Clarke and Warner may get a few extra overs.
If Shane Watson wants to play as a batsman only he may find himself in trouble holding his spot in the starting XI – he is an all rounder and needs to bowl to provide the team with optimum value. My touring party;
Cowan
Warner
Hughes
Clarke
Watson
Hussey
Khawaja
Wade
Haddin
McDonald
Lyon
Johnson
Siddle
Bird
Starc
Pattinson
Hilfenhaus
December 29th 2012 @ 11:02am
James said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:02am | Report comment
I respect Knox but SA is not exactly reknowned for playing spin bowling but they thrashed England in England. Swann and Panesar not withstanding.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:14am
Glenn Mitchell said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:14am | Report comment
The problem for Australia is that there are not any tried and tested spin bowling options available, aside from Lyon. My concern would be playing a second specialist spin bowler who is very likely to be collared. In the absence of quality spin in this country – particularly wrist spin – Australia is going to have to rely on pace to get the job done. The timing of the Indian tour may well be beneficial to the side as it will give the bowlers the opportunity to work on the techniques required if they do face more abrasive and drier pitches during the Ashes series.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:17am
Jason said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:17am | Report comment
I do see Bird and Siddle having a reasonable time on Indian pitches. McGrath and Gillespie had outstanding records in India.
December 29th 2012 @ 8:47am
Rabbitz said | December 29th 2012 @ 8:47am | Report comment
How about we wait and see who is left, unbroken, after India?
They way these fine porcelain specimen crumble under comparatively easy match conditions makes me wonder if any of them will survive India.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:52am
sheek said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:52am | Report comment
I agree with Rabbitz.
While it’s a fun exercise to consider an Ashes team now, things can change over the next few months, especially with the fast bowlers. And the fringe batsmen are likely to throw up many variables.
We also need to consider what a bowling-less Watson means to the team, & his own aspirations.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:56am
Glenn Mitchell said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:56am | Report comment
It’s only a crystal ball Sheek, albeit incredibly dirty and murky!
December 29th 2012 @ 12:08pm
sheek said | December 29th 2012 @ 12:08pm | Report comment
That’s okay Glenn,
I know things are slow during the holiday season & obviously it’s helped occupy the minds of many Roarers today. It’s even allowed me to be mischievous.
December 29th 2012 @ 7:32pm
Glenn Mitchell said | December 29th 2012 @ 7:32pm | Report comment
Sure was a faulty crystal ball. Certainly did not see Hussey’s retirement coming. His absence will have a massive effect on Australia’s fortunes in the Ashes & India. It will be a very inexperienced middle order with Clarke carrying even greater pressure.
December 30th 2012 @ 11:44am
vocans said | December 30th 2012 @ 11:44am | Report comment
Spin and the loss of Hussey are the concerns for me. Lyon might improve between now and then, particularly with India ahead. The batting order will present some interesting problems, as will final selection. The openers need to be solid for winning a test match cricket series, so biff & bash will not be enough. No. 3? Pace will be fine. The test team has the opportunity to go somewhere new and different – the face is changing yet again.
December 29th 2012 @ 8:54am
The Electronic Swagman said | December 29th 2012 @ 8:54am | Report comment
I would consider Mitchell Johnston as an allrounder rather than just a fast bowler. Watson seems to be too great a liability. Not sure where he bats though.
December 29th 2012 @ 9:46am
Atawhai Drive said | December 29th 2012 @ 9:46am | Report comment
Johnston’s not an all-rounder, not with a batting average in the low 20s.
He’s a bowler who occasionally comes off with the bat, nothing more.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:11am
Rabbitz said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:11am | Report comment
He is a bowler who sometimes comes off with the bat and also sometimes(even more rarely) with the ball.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:18am
Atawhai Drive said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:18am | Report comment
Touche, Rabbitz.
December 29th 2012 @ 8:56am
Red Kev said | December 29th 2012 @ 8:56am | Report comment
Warner, Hughes, Khawaja, Clarke, Burns, Hussey as the batsmen with Watson and Cowan as backups simply because no other options exist. Henry and Doolan might be the backups for the return Ashes.
Lyon and either Holland or Maxwell as spinners.
Wade and either Paine or Nevill as keepers.
Siddle, Bird, Pattinson, Johnson, Starc, Cutting as the pace stable. I would save Cummins for the return Ashes and Hilfenhaus has just never impressed me.
December 29th 2012 @ 9:32am
Uncle Argyle said | December 29th 2012 @ 9:32am | Report comment
Morning RK,
Touch harsh on Hilfey. 2012 has been his best year with an average of 21.67, 37 wickets ane very economical at 2.3 runs an over. I think he will be an asset in England as form and experience count. I like the look of Ben Cutting and Luke Feldman but think they will be in the mix in about 18 months.
December 29th 2012 @ 9:38am
Red Kev said | December 29th 2012 @ 9:38am | Report comment
I don’t think Hilfenhaus does anything that others can’t do better, and I think English decks will suit Cutting to be honest.
December 29th 2012 @ 9:45am
Uncle Argyle said | December 29th 2012 @ 9:45am | Report comment
I think to beat England in England we will need experience mixed with youth. Sidle, Johnson and Hilfenhaus provide experience whilst Starc, Pattinson and Bird are the youth. Cutting is yet to play a test so a big call to take him on an Ashes tour.
December 29th 2012 @ 10:00am
Red Kev said | December 29th 2012 @ 10:00am | Report comment
I think relying on Hilfenhaus to beat anyone is folly. Last time we played England he was nothing but batting practice averaging 60 with the ball. Against decent batting he has nothing. If the pitch is juicy and the ball is swinging like Shakira’s hips he is decent, in any other conditions he is poor.
His 2012 figures are propped up by India’s batting. He may have done well in the UK last time but that was 3 years ago and I think Cook and his merry men will plaster Hilfenhaus all over the park if we take him.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:15am
Rob from Brumby Country said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:15am | Report comment
Wait, so the 2010-2011 Ashes series (played on Australian pitches) is relevant, but the 2009 Ashes series (played on English pitches) is not?
Why is that?
December 29th 2012 @ 11:30am
Red Kev said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:30am | Report comment
Form of batsmen for one.
Secondly it is half as distant time wise.
Cook, Bell, Trott and Pieterson will look on Hilfenhaus as medium pace net bowling machine, no threat and good for getting your eye in.
December 29th 2012 @ 11:58am
Rob from Brumby Country said | December 29th 2012 @ 11:58am | Report comment
Hmmm… So your argument is that plucking somebody out of Shield cricket (who has just over one hundred first-class wickets) is a safer bet to perform than a tried and tested swing bowler who performed well in England on his most recent opportunity, and who currently has Australia’s best bowling figures in 2012?
You are a betting man, RK! I like your moxie. Unfortunately, I don’t like your logic, and I suspect the selectors don’t either.
December 29th 2012 @ 12:02pm
Red Kev said | December 29th 2012 @ 12:02pm | Report comment
No my reasoning is that Hilfenhaus is not worth the laces on a bowler’s boot and shouldn’t be near the test squad.
People like to rag on Johnson for being erratic but Hilfhenhaus serves up more pies than Johnson does.
I know that you personally have issues with anyone who plays for Queensland in any sport, but the fact is Cutting has a better strike rate than Bird in the shield, and Burns is streets ahead of Doolan as a batsman.
December 29th 2012 @ 12:16pm
sheek said | December 29th 2012 @ 12:16pm | Report comment
Red Kev,
While I agree with you that Hilfenhaus’ days are as a test bowler are probably over, or at least very near the end, I would hardly say he is “not worth the lace’s on a bowler’s boot.”
You need to have ability to represent your country in any sport, & even more so for a country like Australia in cricket, where the competition is intense.
I know myself in the past, in order to emphasize a point, I have exaggerated my point, exactly like you have with Hilfenhaus. I’ve learnt to be more circumspect (I think)!
December 29th 2012 @ 12:53pm
Rob from Brumby Country said | December 29th 2012 @ 12:53pm | Report comment
Oh, thanks for reminding me, RK, I’ve got an anti-Queensland meeting with the rest of New South Wales at 1 o’clock. Can’t have those bloody banana benders getting ideas above their station.
So… Hilfenhaus bowls more pies than Johnson? That’s literally the only statement in your last post that reflects any kind of non-subjective judgment on Hilfenhaus at all.
I assume you have some kind of non-anecdotal evidence to back it up?
December 29th 2012 @ 1:53pm
Uncle Argyle said | December 29th 2012 @ 1:53pm | Report comment
RK
I would not consider Hilfey my strike bowler. I think he could make a very handy contribution to an overall bowling attack. He is a better bowler than last Ashes as is Johnson. You can’t fault his stats mate. He also had success against the West Indies and South Africa. He will not tear an attack apart but he can keep runs down and jag a couple. I think he was playing well up until the injury.
December 30th 2012 @ 10:43am
Red Kev said | December 30th 2012 @ 10:43am | Report comment
UA, I am not faulting Hilf’s stats, I said at the start he has never impressed me, I wouldn’t pick him. He doesn’t really need to care about impressing anyone other than the selectors.