With a new year comes a clean start and fresh ambitions. And for the big players in Australian horse racing, those ambitions centre on the 70 Group Ones to be decided in 2013.
Inevitably, opportunities will present themselves for Peter Moody and Luke Nolen to add to Black Caviar’s 12 victories at the highest level.
But you can be just as sure that new blood will emerge to taste Group One glory for the first time.
And perhaps that’s where the real excitement lies – because searching for the next Black Caviar is probably just as enjoyable as watching the great mare run.
So here is a list of horses that I think will break their Group One maiden in 2012.
1. Puissance de Lune (five-year old horse, trained by Darren Weir at Ballarat)
Predicted duck-breaking Group One victory: Melbourne Cup (3200m, handicap, Flemington, first Tuesday of November)
Well there’s no prize for putting the big grey stallion, Puissance de Lune, as my number one selection because this is the most promising horse in the land.
In 12 months spent on Australian soil the former French galloper progressed from a narrow restricted grade victory at Warrnambool in May to the performance of the Spring Carnival when cantering to victory in the Queen Elizabeth on the final day of Cup week in November. He will continue to improve!
Puissance will enjoy a soft autumn – purposefully catered to ensure his handicap stays low – before being aimed at the Melbourne Cup in the new season.
Never in my lifetime has there been such a strong Cup favourite so far out from the race. I’m on the bandwagon.
2. Shamal Wind (three-year old filly, trained by Robert Smerdon at Caulfield)
Predicted duck-breaking Group One victory: Robert Sangster (1200m, fillies and mares, Morphettville, April)
Well Shamal Wind could be anything. She’s only been to the races twice and hasn’t been troubled.
On debut she walked in by five lengths at Ballarat in a maiden. But it was on Oaks Day last November that she really announced her arrival on the big stage.
On that occasion she produced a withering turn of speed to destroy a top quality field of fillies at Listed level over 1200m. It was the emergence of a star.
Behind Shamal Wind, five horses have since won – most of which were beaten by more than five lengths at Flemington. But chasing Shamal Wind into second and fourth place were the Stakes performed fillies Brave Soul and Meidung – horses with Group One formlines themselves.
Shamal Wind should improve from her maiden campaign to the extent that by the time 2014 rolls around, she may be Australia’s top sprinter.
I’m tipping a late autumn return to racing culminating in her maiden Group One victory in Adelaide’s Robert Sangster. If you haven’t black-booked this girl, do so know.
3. Fiorente (five-year old horse trained by Gai Waterhouse at Randwick)
Predicted duck-breaking Group One victory: BMW (2400m, weight-for-age, Rosehill, April)
Fiorente is an English import that ran second in the Melbourne Cup on his Australian debut for Waterhouse.
In the English winter, the lightly-raced brown stallion proved his class with a Group Two victory on a wet surface over 2400m (beating, among others, Red Cadeaux). But in a show of versatility, Fiorente produced a sharp turn of speed on a quick track to claim the runner’s up position in the Melbourne Cup.
It was a remarkable result at Flemington because Waterhouse only had Fiorente in her care for a few weeks before the great handicap. I’m certain he will be an improved racehorse in his next preparation.
Gai’s getting this guy ready for races like the Australian Cup (2000m) in March. But I think he’s going to be best suited over the mile and a half of the BMW. And against our average stayers, I expect him to be right in commission.
4. Zydeco (three-year old filly trained by Anthony Freedman at Flemington)
Predicted duck-breaking Group One victory: Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m, three-year old fillies, Rosehill, April)
Zydeco looks a pretty safe pick (at this stage anyway) to break her Group One maiden in the Vinery Stud on Golden Slipper Day.
She’s already won over the 2000m distance when emphatically claiming the Wakeful at Group Two level against fillies on Derby Day in the spring.
She followed that up with a strong second placing behind Dear Demi five days later in the Oaks. Providing Zydeco improves off her first campaign, I expect her – and the likes of Dear Demi and Summerbliss (who was third in the Oaks) – to have a big say in the autumn fillies features.
5. Better Than Ready (three-year old colt trained by Kelly Schweida at Eagle Farm)
Predicted duck-breaking Group One victory: TJ Smith Stakes (1200m, weight-for-age, Randwick, April)
It seems fitting to tip the 1200m Randwick track-record holder to win the only 1200m Group One held at Randwick. Better Than Ready has got a super acceleration on him. He used it to pick off a series of wins in Brisbane in the early spring before coming south for a Listed race in Sydney.
And what an impression he made. Launching from midfield he won Randwick’s Brian Crowley Stakes in the last stride. In doing so, he not only posted a new mark of 1:08.19 but he beat Jolie Bay and Brave Soul.
Jolie Bay went to Melbourne and ran Nechita to less than a length in the Group One Coolmore Stud (1200m, three-year olds) on Derby Day. Brave Soul, on the other hand, was second to Shamal Wind on Oaks Day. That’s some serious form.
I’m not sure whether Black Caviar has the TJ Smith on her program (if she does, a victory for Better Than Ready in the TJ seems a little farfetched) but in any case, this Queensland son of More Than Ready is going to be a horse to follow in 2013.
In my next article I’ll profile another five horses that can break their Group One duck for the first time in 2013.
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