AFL 2013 season preview: Part I
Josh Jenkins of the Crows over Arryn Siposs and Ben McEvoy of the Saints (Slattery Images)
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With the AFL season just an agonising two months away, we take a look at the contenders and pretenders for the 2013 flag, in alphabetical order.
First up are the Adelaide Crows.
Adelaide Crows
The Adelaide Crows are an interesting team to start out with for my 2013 AFL season previews. They were unfortunately on the wrong end of the biggest off-season football scandal, and they lost one of their better players.
However, this is a young team, already one of the best in the AFL, with a great, young coach. They should definitely make some noise in the late finals.
Can they go one better to the MCG on the last Saturday of September?
If anything good is to come out of the Adelaide Crows’ off-season, it’s that they got rid of what could have been some dangerous discord in the locker-room regarding Kurt Tippett.
As good a player as Tippett is, the Crows have both Taylor Walker and Sam Jacobs to fill the void that he leaves. As far as other positives go for the Crows, they have a great young team with exciting players such Patrick Dangerfield, Scott Thompson, Nathan van Berlo.
They also have one of the best young coaches in the league in Brenton Sanderson, who plays a run-and-gun style of game. What’s not to like about the Crows?
On the minus side, they lost Kurt Tippett, to one of their biggest competitors in the league. And they didn’t get anything back.
As big a cancer as Tippett could’ve become, he was still a very good player who provides mismatches wherever he plays. To make matters worse, they did not get any compensation for him.
Despite the scandal Tippett went through, he was still at high demand. If the Crows had’ve had the opportunity to trade Tippett during trade week, they could’ve gotten a few players and/or draft picks and become an even bigger premiership threat. That’s a big chance lost.
Despite the disappointment of losing Tippett for nothing, the Crows are still in a very strong position. They have a good, young team and some of the best players in the league, and a great coaching staff. Nothing should stop the Crows finishing in the top three.
Prediction: 3rd.
Brisbane Lions
The Brisbane Lions had another disappointing year sprinkled with bright spots in 2012. One was the play of young stars such as Jack Redden, James Polkinghorne and Daniel Rich in a year where captain Jonathan Brown was again decimated with injuries.
With not too many off-season moves, and Michael Voss still in the head coaching role, the Brisbane Lions don’t look like they’ll be taking any steps towards the greatness they achieved in the early naughties.
The Lions are a good team – they did add Brent Moloney, who is a good midfielder at his best. They blooded plenty of young cubs with big ceilings this season, such as Dayne Zorko and Josh Green, and did well working them into the core of young future stars.
Next year, everyone is a year older, a year more experienced, a year more developed and has had another pre-season together. Things can only get better from here.
If they can keep Jonathan Brown on the field for most matches this year, they can definitely exceed expectations, and I hope they do.
Unfortunately for Lions fans, the front office is still unwilling to part with Michael Voss, after he has repeatedly proved he needs a superstar-studded lineup to have any chance of competing in the AFL. Yes we love to respect club legends, such as Vossy, but the best for the team needs to always be in mind.
And of course, this Lions club is still young and developing. The Lions need to focus on mixing some more veterans in with their young core, and they have started to do that by bringing in Moloney, but more is needed next year.
If the Lions can gather required veterans to get their team into the finals, they can hopefully send Jonathan Brown out respectably, as lengthy injury time away from the game has certainly shortened his career.
The Brisbane Lions are an encouraging team, as they are close to the bottom of the ladder, but still on the rise. They have plenty of young pieces and a good environment that free-agents will want to come to in future years.
If they develop their young kids whilst Brown is still around, bring in some more vets and send Vossy packing, the Lions can be as good as they make themselves.
Prediction: 13th.
Carlton Blues
The navy Blues certainly had an old, dark year in 2012. They finished off the year being the victims of the Gold Coast Suns’ greatest win ever, and capped off the year by firing Brett Ratten.
However, their off-season was one of the best in the league, bringing in multiple premiership and grand-final coach Mick Malthouse to lead the troops.
Chris Judd has also surrendered the captaincy, signalling the Blues are flying the flag of change. It should be an interesting year for the Blue baggers.
The Blues have everything to be excited about.
Mick Malthouse is one of the all-time coaching greats, and the Blues community will be hoping he can lead them to the promised land that they were supposed to reach a few years ago. It can only be up from now on for the Blues.
The only thing that could be playing on Carlton’s mind is last year’s results. With a virtually unchanged playing squad, they’ll need to pick up the play monstrously from last year if they’re to return to relevancy. Obviously a healthy Marc Murphy will help, but they can’t afford any injuries if they want to hang with much younger, fitter healthier teams.
On the surface, the Blues’ season looks to be a positive one. If they can get everything together, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be contending for a premiership, perhaps for the next few years. They have champion players, a champion coach, and are a champion club looking to return to football relevancy.
But that’s what we all said last season.
Prediction: 6th.
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January 23rd 2013 @ 8:29am
AllSports said | January 23rd 2013 @ 8:29am | Report comment
None of these teams will make the eight.
January 23rd 2013 @ 8:33am
Redb said | January 23rd 2013 @ 8:33am | Report comment
I think Adelaide will make the 8. Sure they have lost Tippett but their midfield is improving and I think Walker will relish being the main forward target.
February 3rd 2013 @ 9:36am
vocans said | February 3rd 2013 @ 9:36am | Report comment
There’s a lot of improvement left in this young team. Remember they went down to the Hawks by only 5pts. Finals experience adds to them. The young backs should be even tougher this year. The competition for a place is enormous and that adds significantly to attitude on the ground, and the options open to the coach. The 8 certainly and should be a flag contender. Top 4 and even no. 1.
January 23rd 2013 @ 8:32am
aggregated drupe said | January 23rd 2013 @ 8:32am | Report comment
The crows will. They have a good coach and a good team and have got rid of Tippett.
January 23rd 2013 @ 9:08am
Redb said | January 23rd 2013 @ 9:08am | Report comment
I think the ladder positions are pretty close to the mark.
I see Adelaide as 3-5th.
Lions as high as 9-10th.
Carlton 5-8th.
January 23rd 2013 @ 11:17am
Matt F said | January 23rd 2013 @ 11:17am | Report comment
I think you’re pretty spot on here Redb.
Adelaide will be about the same as last year. They’ve got a young list that will improve but a tougher draw, and the loss of Tippet will probably mean they’ll finish around 3-6. Probably 12 months away from have a real crack at the flag.
Carlton will improve but they’re not a Top 4 side yet. They have some key holes in their list. Mick will get them back on track and they should make the 8 but I can find at least 4 teams better than the Blues at this stage.
Brisbane will be pushing the Top 8 though they will probably fall a bit short. They showed a lot of improvement last year, particularly in the second half of the year but I think the Top 8 will be just beyond them. They finished four games out of the finals last year and I think they’ll close that to one or two games. They do have arguably the best draw in the competition so that could push them into the finals if everything goes right.
January 23rd 2013 @ 9:28am
Bigrig said | January 23rd 2013 @ 9:28am | Report comment
Brisbane will be very hot and cold this year. They just have no forward line. With Browny getting older or concussed every 2nd week they just dont have the firepower.
January 23rd 2013 @ 3:32pm
Myles said | January 23rd 2013 @ 3:32pm | Report comment
Precisely why they have only garnered a 13/18 on my ladder
January 23rd 2013 @ 10:15am
TomC said | January 23rd 2013 @ 10:15am | Report comment
Getting in early, Myles. I like it.
I see the Crows as more likely to be a part of a scrap for positions in the bottom half of the eight. Leaving aside their excellent season last year, I don’t think they have the depth or quality of Collingwood, Hawthorn, Sydney and West Coast. Certainly plenty of great young players, and with the likes of Kerridge, Crouch and Lyons to be injected over the next couple of seasons, there’s more to come. However, I think they played near the very top of their ability in 2012, with the benefit of a good draw, and they’ll probably level off a bit in 2013. Not enough depth in the key positions, and probably still short one or two damaging midfielders.
I don’t know if 2012 was a particularly disappointing year for Brisbane. I don’t think many people expected them to win ten games at the start of the season. 2013 will reveal a lot about how much can be expected from the current crop of players. Young players like Green, Polec, Karnezis, Beams, Banfield, Lisle, McKeever, Harwood, Lester and Golby have all shown glimpses of their talent, but need to step up and become regular contributors. If that happens, then the Lions could push up toward the top eight, but on the flip side if they get a couple of key injuries (particularly amongst the talls) then they could find themselves floundering in the bottom four again. 13th is probably a safe, conservative guess of where they’ll finish, but anywhere between 7th and 16th wouldn’t surprise.
Bit confused by the description of James Polkinghorne as a ‘young star’. I see him as a fringe player who hasn’t really capitalised on his early promise. Has some footy smarts but doesn’t get enough of the ball.
Like you, I see a few reasons to be bullish about the Blues. Squad consistency is usually a good thing, and hopefully it can lead to consistency on the field, which was their biggest problem in 2012. We shouldn’t forget that their best last season was as good as anyone. Mick Malthouse has a history of getting the absolute most out of his players, and while I think it’s likely to take him a few years to build the team he wants, he’ll have some kind of immediate impact. There are still a few list issues to work through, particularly with the talls, but I’d agree that 6th is around about the mark.
January 23rd 2013 @ 3:35pm
Myles said | January 23rd 2013 @ 3:35pm | Report comment
Thanks for your comment, TomC.
I agree with most of what you have to say. However, I hardly see Polkinghorne as a fringe player. Yes he has a ton of footy smarts, and he is a skilled player, he certainly doesn’t get enough ball, but I think he has potential to be a fixture in Brisbane’s best 22, probably off the bench in years to come, but still a very viable player.
January 23rd 2013 @ 11:07am
LK said | January 23rd 2013 @ 11:07am | Report comment
You say “things can only get better” for the Lions, then pencil them into 13th, which is exactly where they finished last year. Last year they finished on ten wins, up from six in 2011 (I think!). They have traded in decent players to fill gaps on their list and I think they can improve on 2012. The Lions have a relatively easy draw with double up games against the Doggies, Suns, Dees, North and home games against the Giants and Saints. They are a big chance to play finals in my opinion.
January 23rd 2013 @ 11:21am
Matt F said | January 23rd 2013 @ 11:21am | Report comment
They are a bit low but I’m not sure if they’re a finals team just yet, though you’re right about the draw. It’s arguably the best in the competition.
While they had ten wins, the benchmark for the top 8 has changed. 12 wins no longer does it. You need at least 13 and the Roos won 14 last year to finish 8th. They improved a lot last year but often teams near the bottom rise to mid-table very quickly. Getting from that 10th-13th ranking into the top 8 is a lot tougher. They could make finals if absolutely everything goes right but I think they’ll finish 1-2 games short. They’re definitely on the right track though.
They could finish anywhere from 7-12 but I think they will end up around 9 or 10
January 23rd 2013 @ 2:20pm
LK said | January 23rd 2013 @ 2:20pm | Report comment
That’s a fair enough reply. However, it isn’t unprecedented for a team to come from the lower part of the table to the top 8 or higher. For example, look at the Swans in 2009-10, Eagles 2010-11 or Crows 2011-12, all these teams went from 12th or lower to 5th or higher in a season. In fact WCE went from wooden spooners to top 4. How many people tipped them to make such large improvements? I’m not certain the Lions are going to be that team this year, but they seem to be underrated.
January 23rd 2013 @ 2:32pm
Redb said | January 23rd 2013 @ 2:32pm | Report comment
The Lions weakness has to be their forward line, Jono Brown God love him is losing his pace (not to mention his face), who is going to kick their goals?
January 23rd 2013 @ 3:38pm
Myles said | January 23rd 2013 @ 3:38pm | Report comment
Redb, I think Cornelius has the potential to. He’s a good strong marking forward who leads well, and can only thrive under the tutelage of Jono. Will be interesting to see how the Lions handle him.
January 23rd 2013 @ 4:54pm
TomC said | January 23rd 2013 @ 4:54pm | Report comment
The problem for Cornelius is he doesn’t really fit into a conventional forward mould. He’s not big enough or physical enough to be a crash-and-bash tall forward, he’s not agile enough to be a leading full-forward, and he doesn’t have the endurance or all-round-game to be a flanker. He can find some space and take a mark, but that’s about it really.
He’s the kind of forward who dominates at reserves level but has limited upside in the seniors, similar to Mitch Morton.
I’d like to see Jordan Lisle get more of a chance for the Lions this season.
January 23rd 2013 @ 11:22am
TomC said | January 23rd 2013 @ 11:22am | Report comment
Four wins for the Lion in 2011.
Good post, Matt.
January 25th 2013 @ 5:37pm
Dan said | January 25th 2013 @ 5:37pm | Report comment
Last year the Lions won 8 games against the bottom 5 sides, with 2 good(close) wins against top 5 sides. However they got slapped around by the majority of the comp, and while they’re heading in the right direction, they wont get the need 13-14 wins to make finals.
Also not sure how the Lions could consider a North double up easy.
January 23rd 2013 @ 12:25pm
swannies05 said | January 23rd 2013 @ 12:25pm | Report comment
I think you are around about the mark Myles. You are also a very brave man doing your predictions this far out, hats off to you.
The only problem with this is you are only doing three teams a day… I was just getting into the swing of it and then that was it! For the remaining 15 teams, any chance fo upping it to 5 per article?
January 23rd 2013 @ 12:37pm
Redb said | January 23rd 2013 @ 12:37pm | Report comment
lol must agree, do five next time.
January 23rd 2013 @ 1:46pm
Strummer Jones said | January 23rd 2013 @ 1:46pm | Report comment
…and include something about Greater Western Sydney in each review to rev things up a little in the comments
January 23rd 2013 @ 2:30pm
Redb said | January 23rd 2013 @ 2:30pm | Report comment
Go you Giants!
January 23rd 2013 @ 4:18pm
TW said | January 23rd 2013 @ 4:18pm | Report comment
Giants really rolling along now – Members as of today Jan 23 – 7801 – They will easily get to last years total of 10,241 by June 30. And the naysayers said it will never happen.
January 23rd 2013 @ 4:30pm
langou said | January 23rd 2013 @ 4:30pm | Report comment
And end each article with why Aussie Rules is a better sport than soccer/league/union
January 23rd 2013 @ 9:15pm
Strummer Jones said | January 23rd 2013 @ 9:15pm | Report comment
Agree. Should be compulsory from now on that each article includes:
1. GWS
2. Israel Folau
3. Why Aussie Rules is going to take over the world
Guaranteed you will always hit 130+ comments
January 24th 2013 @ 8:31am
Redb said | January 24th 2013 @ 8:31am | Report comment
I think we need an article on the AFL International Cup.
January 24th 2013 @ 9:08am
Brewski said | January 24th 2013 @ 9:08am | Report comment
I can help ……. Lots and lots of stuff happening in NZ …..
http://www.worldfootynews.com/
January 23rd 2013 @ 3:40pm
Myles said | January 23rd 2013 @ 3:40pm | Report comment
If you don’t mind waiting a little longer for each article, then sure. Five it is. I’ll get them up as quickly as possible.
January 23rd 2013 @ 3:57pm
Redb said | January 23rd 2013 @ 3:57pm | Report comment
No worries keep up the good work.
January 23rd 2013 @ 12:37pm
Brian said | January 23rd 2013 @ 12:37pm | Report comment
History says that more often than not 3 teams leave the 8 and 3 teams come in. 2013 looks like a season with definitely some disappointments. The top 8 from 2012 were Syd, Haw, Ade, Coll, WC, Fre, Geel, NM.
Of that you would reasonably predict only NM to drop out. Than before you consider a bolter Ess, Carl, Rich & Brisbane would all have serious designs on playing finals next year.
Even if we rule out North & Brisbane (both of whom have credible claims) that still leaves 10 teams and only 8 spots.
For what its worth I’ll tip the top 8 to be Syd, Haw, Ade, Coll, WC, Ess, Carl, Geel I have left out both Fremanatle & Richmond but only because they seem to fail more often than not and I do not know who else to leave out.
January 23rd 2013 @ 4:12pm
TW said | January 23rd 2013 @ 4:12pm | Report comment
Like your top 8 except I think Freo will definitley make it – Ross Lyons put the fear of god into them over the Christmas break over their fitness apparently if local media can be believed. He is changing that club.
And there is always a team from out of the 8 forces their way in- Perhaps the Tigers – They sure deserve it. There is something about that club whch has a huge following.
January 23rd 2013 @ 4:34pm
langou said | January 23rd 2013 @ 4:34pm | Report comment
I honestly think we (Freo) will be pushing for a top four position this year. The way we ended last year, the quality coach we have and a good mix of experience and young players.
January 23rd 2013 @ 4:56pm
wisey_9 said | January 23rd 2013 @ 4:56pm | Report comment
I agree. Freo look ominous.
January 23rd 2013 @ 5:15pm
TomC said | January 23rd 2013 @ 5:15pm | Report comment
Good post, Brian.
I’m not quite sold on the Dockers just yet, myself. I think once you get past their top half-dozen players (Pavlich, Fyfe, Barlow, McPharlin, Sandilands and Mundy) the quality falls away quite a bit. They got excellent output in 2012 from second tier players like Pearce, Johnson, Crowley, Ballantyne and De Boer but personally I don’t think there’s a lot of candidates to step up and become big performers in 2013. Walters and Hill, maybe, but they don’t seem likely to be 25+ possession players.
January 23rd 2013 @ 5:36pm
Brian said | January 23rd 2013 @ 5:36pm | Report comment
It was harsh to leave them out but like you Tom they seem most vulnerable to injuries to top line players. Geelong too maybe except Bartel, Johnson, Chapman never seem to be injured when it counts. The others just seem to have too much quality for it all to go wrong.
As I said not saying Freo will drop out just can’t see anyone in that 8 who is less likely.
January 23rd 2013 @ 6:05pm
aggregated drupe said | January 23rd 2013 @ 6:05pm | Report comment
North Melbourne and Fremantle will be in the top eight. Carlton and Essendon won’t.
January 23rd 2013 @ 5:30pm
AP said | January 23rd 2013 @ 5:30pm | Report comment
Crows could be big sliders with a less favourable draw & one of their forward twin towers lost. Surely Geelong, who Freo defeated in the finals, must be more vulnerable to falling out of the 8 than the Dockers given the structure of the list?
January 23rd 2013 @ 9:20pm
Strummer Jones said | January 23rd 2013 @ 9:20pm | Report comment
True but Walker is looking pretty scary. 23 this year, that bloke could be an absolute superstar of the game (yes, I know we’ve heard it all before …….a mate once said Jesse White would be the new Wayne Carey!!!). Adelaide to hold a top 8, barring any major injuries throughout the team, for mine
January 23rd 2013 @ 5:31pm
Lroy said | January 23rd 2013 @ 5:31pm | Report comment
Nice article. Crows without Tippet, I really rated him as a player, he didnt kick a swag each week, but he still kicked 2-3 consistently, his absence might be the difference between winning and losing some of those big matches against top sides. They traded Knights to the Tigers? Wow, his replacement must be great, cos he was really really good IMO.
Pies, probably have more good players across the board than any club, I lose count of how many guns they have, but letting Dawes go to the Dees?? Hmm.. when they won the flag they had 3 big forwards who could all kick a few goals, meaning they spread the oppositions defence, no backup ruckman to Jolly, if he goes down long term their season might be over? Lynch is a better forward than ruckman… hope he does well, was one of my favorite players at the Eagles.
I support WCE and for some bizarre reason the Lions always seem to play well against the Eagles, they won ten games last year, have a decent draw, barring injuries you would think they could win 12 this year right? Should be enough to make the 8.
Carlton… something about them just doesnt make sense… they are either underperforming or overperforming IMO.. I dont rate them up there with Sydney or Hawthorn or even Collingwood as a top 4 side.. but who knows, with Malthouse as coach they should toughen up a bit, I honestly dont think they are as good as some of the media has made them out to be, but if Gibbs plays in the centre he will probably win the Brownlow, so they will at least have something to celebrate in Sept.
Essendon, another side Im not sold on, they had an easier draw in 2011 than 2012, we have been talking about potential for a couple of years with then, suspect James Hird and his boys need to deliver in 2013 if they are to be taken seriously. Dont rate them as a top 4 side..I like Jetta (forget which one he is).
Fremantle (cough, choke, deep breaths) , they are unfortunately my dark horse, they had a horror run with injuries last year and still made the 8. they have some serious talent those blokes, and if Pavlich plays up forward, a potent forward line, guys like Mayne can pop up and kick a couple here and there, they will be hard to match up with i think. They have a very good midfield, leagues best ruckman, and an underatted backline. I think they will suprise a lot of people and finish top 4. Is anyone going to KO Hayden Ballantyne again this year?
As for the Eagles, well it depends on injuries doesnt it… Add Lecras, Nicoski who can kick 40-50 goals a year apiece, and Wellingham who adds class to the midield to last years lineup and it begins to look like an iniviting story.. they could also be a serious contender… but NicNats groin might be worse than first predicted (still) and Lynch might be a bigger loss than people realize… its hard to know. They will make the 8 for sure… but need a top 4 finish to seriouly have a tilt.
As for the rest, every year we hear “its going to be the Tigers year” ..yawn.. and I have a buddy who says the Demons will have a red hot go in 2013… hmm.. you have to admire his enthusiam.. cant see it happening… same for anyone supporting the Dogs, Power, Gold Coast and that mob that play at Skoda stadium… what is a Skoda anyway?
Saints fans will growl, make funny noises and remove their teeth when drinking beer, but not much to get excited about for the red black and whites, they will win a few games, upset someone like the Pies or an interstate side at the G, but will lose too many games to lesser sides to finish top 4.. probably finish 9-12.
North… they might be a bit better than I gave them credit for, I think they will stay in the 8 and will cause headaches for a few top clubs dont see them wining a flag, but who knows. They certainly are fit. I watched a few of their pre season vids out of curiosity, dont know what a Brazillian is?, well it isnt a lithe olive skinned latin doing the samba. Its a Roos routine that involves, dips in the dirt, push ups, guys hitting each other, sprinting and vomit.
Cats, we say it every year, their old legs are going to catch up with them, but they still win games. I cant see them making top 4, and frankly, they could drop to tenth, but any team that can beat Hawthorn as often as they do cannot be taken lightly..
Hawks, what to make of these guys? on paper they should have been premiers last year, they talented and tough, can be brutal inside when they want to be, they will chew some sides and spit them out in 2013, with Buddy and Roughead up forward, you would have think they are going to be right amongst it this year, but thats the rub, both those guys spend long periods in the midfield, hard to kick goals from the half back line… still, their good enough to be there at that last day in September (hopefully against that other bird of Prey, the EAGLES!!)
But if I had to make a prediction now, I think the Swans are still going to be the team to beat… frankly, they have a lot more class than anyone gives them credit for, O’Keefe would have won a Brownlow by now if he played for a blue blood melbourne club, actually, a few of them might have
Hannebury, like that guy, where did he come from again? Kennedy, best player in the league??? Its hard not to like the Swans, in fact if they hadnt of beaten us in the 05 GF, I probably would!!!
If I didnt mention your team its because they will finish somewhere with the Skodas.
January 23rd 2013 @ 9:25pm
Strummer Jones said | January 23rd 2013 @ 9:25pm | Report comment
Hannebury played the game of his life in the GF, and probably went close to the Norm Smith. Unfortunately though, he really was making some pretty bad disposal errors before the GF, and on a consistent basis. Some Swans fans were calling for him to be dropped for a few weeks can you believe. Hopefully it can continue his excellent GF form in 2013.
January 24th 2013 @ 12:16am
Lroy said | January 24th 2013 @ 12:16am | Report comment
Mate,I like Hannebury. He was very unlucky not to get the Norm Smith. With Tippet in the lineup, the Swans, barring injuries should be right up there come the pointy end of the season. Good luck
January 24th 2013 @ 8:00am
AllSports said | January 24th 2013 @ 8:00am | Report comment
Wow Lroy love your predictions. Im certain it will be Swans, Hawks, Pies, Eagles top four, with Dockers an outside chance for fourth. You can name about 6 other teams for the remainder of the 8. It will come down to who gets injured.
January 24th 2013 @ 11:18am
Lroy said | January 24th 2013 @ 11:18am | Report comment
@ AllSports – Cheers mate, I didnt mean to make it so long, began to get into it and bingo, bobs your uncle
January 24th 2013 @ 8:16am
Redb said | January 24th 2013 @ 8:16am | Report comment
Leroy Jetta.
Big improvers at Essendon are likely to be Zaharakis & HIbberd, Jetta is exciting to watch but inconsistent.
January 24th 2013 @ 11:25am
Lroy said | January 24th 2013 @ 11:25am | Report comment
@Red, sounds greatd. As a non Bombers fan, I think Jetta works harder than he is given credit for, hope he has a good year
January 24th 2013 @ 12:21pm
Redb said | January 24th 2013 @ 12:21pm | Report comment
Jetta does some great work but tends to fade later in the season.