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Here is the first fearless prediction from the non-gambling Bondi Junction Greek: France will win the 2013 Six Nations tournament.
The tournament, the second strongest rugby international tournament after The Rugby Championship, begins this weekend with Wales v Ireland at the Millennium Stadium, England v Scotland at Twickenham, and Italy v France at Stadio Olimpica.
I would anticipate victories to Ireland, England and Italy. Indeed, Will Greenwood, the former outstanding centre for England, believes that Ireland will win the tournament.
He is basing his prediction, which admittedly is not stated fearlessly in the UK’s Daily Telegraph, on the grounds that the other likely suspects, France and England, are both playing Ireland at home, in the Aviva Stadium at Dublin.
In the case of England, their encounter with Ireland is in week two of the tournament. The Ireland v France encounter is in week four.
Greenwood’s point is that none of the Six Nations sides are particularly strong playing away from home. This criticism (if such an obvious point can be called this) actually applies to every international side, with the exception of the All Blacks who have a remarkable record of winning Tests away from New Zealand.
Ireland have to actually capitalise on their home ground advantage, of course. And they have to defeat Wales, Scotland and Italy away from home, starting this weekend with Wales.
A year ago Wales were riding high in European rugby. They had won the Grand Slam for the third time in eight years.
And they had a squad ready to tour Australia which was touted by the experts as being the strongest that Wales had ever sent away on a tour. It is history now that Wales lost (narrowly) the three-Test series to the Wallabies, and the subsequent four Tests.
Wales have injuries to key players, a run of consecutive losses and are without their master-coach Warren Gatland, who is preparing to lead the British and Irish Lions on their three-Test tour here in June. Rob Howley, a fine Test halfback in his day, has not been able to achieve any success so far as the sorcerers’ apprentice.
I see Scotland as a strong possibility for achieving some upsets.. But then, I usually see this possibility and am always disappointed, although last season Scotland recorded a rare victory (admittedly in bizarre circumstances) against the Wallabies at Newcastle.
Scotland, on paper, have a team that should do better than it does. The pack is big and vigorous. There is some size and pace in the backs. For a long time, though, Scotland have lacked a number 10 who can get the best out of the talent around him. This still applies.
The new coach Scott Johnson was a clever five-eighth in Sydney rugby for a few decades. He is a lively thinker about rugby. If anyone can get some magic, or even a better performance than the team has generally produced in the last few years, then Johnson is the man.
He has co-opted Dean Ryan as his forwards coach. And Sean Maitland, the Crusaders’ flier, has been dropped immediately into the side as yet another ‘kilted Kiwi’ to give the side some long-range try-scoring possibilities.
Paul Ackford, an industrious and huge second rower for England, rates Ryan as the most insightful commentator on European rugby and if this thoughtfulness can be translated into better play by Scotland’s forwards, then who knows what may happen.
Greenwood suggests that England ‘are good but they are a run of big games away from great’.
I think this is a fair assessment. The Wallabies defeated England on their northern tour last season. But then England turned around and absolutely monstered the All Blacks.
Yes, the All Blacks were at the end of a long season and some of them were suffering from a stomach virus. But the victory was based on aggressive, high-powered and skilled forward play and some powerful running in the backs.
By any measure, any team that can thrash the All Blacks, anywhere and under any circumstances, is a side that needs to be honoured. But it is true that in recent years England has pulled off the occasional brilliant victory (against the Wallabies in 2010) and then lapsed back into a sort of bully-boy mediocrity.
As A suggests, when England starts to play this well away from the security of Twickenham, then the side will be rated as a contender for Six Nations and Rugby World Cup honours.
The advantage for England in this current Six Nations tournament is that they play France at Twickenham. And this gets us to Les Bleus are their possibilities this season.
Again I go to Greenwood for a thought on this: ‘France seem to be a step ahead (of England) in terms of cohesion and consistency, and were magnificent in the autumn.’
And so they were.
Ackford, too, while suggesting he is ‘clueless’ about who will win the tournament, makes this point: ‘On form, France are a delight, still the best side in the world at combining power play with soft, deft touches.’
The bulk of the side is made up of players who performed so splendidly in the Rugby World Cup 2011 final against the All Blacks. That same side, though, also lost two matches in the Rugby World Cup 2011 tournament, aside from the final, to the All Blacks and Tonga in the pool rounds.
Here we have the mystery and magic of France. The side is capable of the best rugby, in the forwards and backs, of any team in the world. The highlights reel of best tries scored in Tests would have a predominance of tries scored by France.
The side, as well, is capable of abysmal rugby. As the adage says: ‘It depends which French side turns up to play.’
This consideration always needs to be in mind when tipping France to win any tournament. Going for them right now is the fact that they have a splendid coach (and former clever winger for France), Philippe Saint-Andre. He has given the team, according to Greenwood, ‘organisation and a sense of purpose’.
A focused, well-selected and shrewdly-coached French side is a formidable rugby beast. This is why I am predicting that they will win the 2013 Six Nations tournament.
But I am drawing the line on this prediction. I reserve the right to make a fearless prediction about a Grand Slam tournament victory until, at least, this weekend’s round of matches has been played.