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In a dystopian world, the territory is divided up into districts. Every year representatives of each district are selected to participate in a televised fight to the death.
It’s part entertainment, part self-inflicted torture as hordes of people cheer for their own, often in the face of astronomical odds that their champion will emerge victorious.
No, I’m not talking about the world smash hit, The Hunger Games. It’s Super Rugby that has you hooked.
Already, just five rounds into the competition and a clear pecking order is emerging.
The chances are, based on what we’ve seen so far and know about the cut-throat fight that is Super Rugby, your team already doesn’t stand a chance.
But here you are looking forward to the weekend and wondering whether you’ll go to the game or watch it on TV.
You are trying to see what potential match-ups your side can exploit. You are looking for a way the rot can be stopped or how this week might kick start a championship side.
I’ve run a cold eye across the log for you and over the next couple of posts will give a definitive run down on where each team sits in the pecking order.
Already there are contenders, pretenders and those sides who still sit in the ‘bubble’ for one reason or another.
For a moment, take the wide-angled view and let’s see where each team lies.
You will see if your side, like Katniss Everdeen, is putting together a fairy tale trip to stardom, is hiding in the trees like the deceptive Rue or already lying dead in the open field on opening day?
Today, the pretenders.
Highlanders
A dirty little secret of mine was that I secretly loved the Highlanders when it wasn’t cool. I then picked them to surprise people at the start of last season.
They turned into an entertaining but also a violent team last year. It was exciting to watch them attempt a ludicrous attack from their own goal-line and then the next minute deliver bonecrushing defence – a team after my own heart.
So to watch them comprehensively removed from the Hunger Games equation so early on has been a bit sad. They are one of early deaths as teams were only beginning to pick their weapons.
Last week was their best performance of the year so far and they still didn’t win. Hosea Gear is a bright spot and is enough by himself to get me to turn onto the Highlanders – watching him run through people this year has been delightful.
Apart from him there isn’t much to sing about down at the southern tip of civilisation.
Southern Kings
I looked at the Kings first few games of the year and a confidence building win against the Force followed by holding the Sharks pointed towards a platform to build on as the year progressed.
Then, last week they went and tried to play the Chiefs in the rugby equivalent of a track meet.
Sure, they weren’t dictating all of the speed and were doing a lot of the chasing, but it wasn’t like they displayed the same rigidity that had marked their opening games.
I don’t think the Sharks will win too many more games this year, but I hope they manage to return to the belligerence that got them their first one and stifled the Sharks for much of that clash.
They can build on a strong defence and make the most of counter-attack and forcing mistakes.
That’s the blueprint Jake White would be preaching were he in charge of the Kings.
Rebels
With one win from their first four matches the Rebels are relying on points from a bye to keep a respectable points total.
They now travel away to the Sharks and Cheetahs and the Force on the way back to Melbourne for their next three games.
You could be watching (or not watching as the case may be) a Rebels team host the Kings on April 13 trying to get their second win of the season. It might even be a fight for the Super Rugby wooden spoon at that point.
These are ugly thoughts for fans of the third-year Rebels.
The Rebels certainly didn’t get a good weapon to set themselves up with and perished right at the start.
They’ve got one early scalp to show for their effort, but how many more can they take?
Waratahs
I get the feeling this is how the Waratahs fans feel about their team right now. First, they are glad Michael Cheika has been sifting through the players at his disposal and isn’t afraid to pick on form.
However, the problem is the weapons in the armoury just aren’t very good this year. He’s good at getting the best players available on the field, but that doesn’t seem to be good enough yet.
They’ve already played themselves into a very difficult position from which to win the competition.
They’ve dropped points to in-conference opposition and looked very shaky in getting their single win of the season.
I can’t see them threatening.
As I wrote earlier in the week, it’s a time to study the finer points of the game and look for signs of improvement for the Tahs supporters.
Force
The Western Force managed to go home with a big scalp in the Reds last week. But it still almost felt like a foregone conclusion that the Reds were somehow going to drop that one.
It was so easy to watch that game and completely believe the Force, winless this year, were going to walk away with victory. It was all very strange and surreal.
Now they are home they will be a lot more stable for the rest of the year, but their problem is similar to the Cheetahs – how often do they get wins against sides like the Brumbies, Waratahs or Rebels?
Nowhere near often enough to make any real noise.
Their season isn’t completely over. They have a real chance to finish higher than the Waratahs and Rebels on the ladder.
That would be an achievement, even with no chance of finals rugby.
Heck, in The Hunger Games, most contenders are pretenders by the end of the first day. If that’s going to be your lot you might as well be the best of a bad bunch.
Cheetahs
It’s been a fantastic swing through Australasia for the men from Bloem. But let’s face it, a side that can’t get enough points against their own conference isn’t going anywhere in this competition.
They can keep coming to Sydney and take years off my life by beating the Waratahs year after year, but until they can go into Durban, Pretoria or Cape Town and stand up to the physicality of a South African derby and come home with the bikkies they can’t be taken seriously.
Want to see how far from contending the Cheetahs are? They lost 29-22 against the Sharks in round two, who just got beaten 29-10 by a good team in the Brumbies.
Go home and beat the Sharks.
I will say that the Cheetahs pose one of the bigger threats of making a huge leap up the contender standings because of their good haul on tour this year, but I remain confident they won’t get the job done in conference.
Tomorrow I’ll look at the ‘bubble’ teams – those that are lurking in the shadows or hiding in trees.
It’s hard to tell right now whether they’ll make a run for glory or fade into the same oblivion as the ones we covered today.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.