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Ewen McKenzie’s announcement that he is leaving the Queensland Reds at the end of the Super Rugby season to go somewhere is a clear case of throwing his hat into the ring for the job of Wallabies coach.
As Wayne Smith in The Australian pointed out, McKenzie is now available if the ARU wants him or if, say, Ireland who need a new head coach after a poor Six Nations tournament make him an offer he can’t refuse.
The point about the Ireland job, for which McKenzie would be a shoo-in to be offered, is that even the possibility of it might be enough to galvanise the ARU into claiming McKenzie for Australian rugby.
This is what John O’Neill as CEO of the ARU in 2011 did with Robbie Deans. He signed up the Wallaby coach for two more years with an option for four in total even before the 2011 Rugby World Cup tournament.
The key to Deans’ re-appointment at the end of the season, with him and the ARU taking up the extra two-year option until after the 2015 Rugby World Cup tournament is a series win against the British and Irish Lions.
No series win, end of the Wallaby coaching job contract. It’s as simple and as complicated (in terms of winning) as that.
Even if the Wallabies win the season, it is not a sure thing that Deans will get his extra two years. He has powerful enemies with agendas inside the Australian rugby community who resent the fact that he is a New Zealander.
Bill Pulver, the new CEO, has being talking about the need for all the Australian teams, including the Wallabies, to play smart, attractive, running and winning rugby.
The implication in his remarks has been that the Wallabies, as well as most of the other teams, especially the Waratahs, had not played in this preferred style in recent years.
The further point here is that in 2011 the Reds did do that and won the Super Rugby tournament for the first time with their expansive and spectator-friendly style of play. It must be noted though that this season, particularly, the Reds have been less attractive in their play.
But then they have missed until last week Will Genia, arguably the best halfback in world rugby, to set the backs and forwards running on spectacular break-out plays.
It is interesting, too, for those of us who like to read the rugby’s political tea leaves to see the promotion of Jake White as a candidate for the Wallabies coaching job. This promotion, of course, has been sparked by White’s admission that he wants to get back at some stage to coaching an international side.
White has also stated that he will honour his contract with the Brumbies that ends in 2015.
What this means, I believe, is that if McKenzie does not get the Wallaby coaching job in 2014, he will not get it in 2016.
White is creating a Brumbies side that should win at least one Super Rugby title in the next three seasons (and this includes this season). If he does this, he could argue after the 2015 Rugby World Cup that he took an Under-21 Springboks side which won a world tournament to winning the 2007 Rugby World Cup. T
he Brumbies would be the equivalent of his championship-winning Under-21 Springboks side.
This would be a powerful argument. It is something that Rod Macqueen did with his Brumbies when he coached the Wallabies, even though he never actually won a Super Rugby title with the Brumbies.
This saga of the Wallaby coach going into the 2015 Rugby World Cup has a long way to run, obviously. What McKenzie has going for him is a Super Rugby win in 2011, powerful supporters on the ARU board and the fact that the Australian rugby community seems to favour an Australian coaching the Wallabies, when all other things are equal.
But there is the rub. If Deans can coach the Wallabies to a series win against the Lions, then he must be in the box seat to continue to 2015.
If he doesn’t win the series, McKenzie – in the absence of White – is the obvious successor.
White comes into the picture in 2016. But by then, who knows? Michael Cheika might have turned around the Waratahs into a championship-winning side.
If this happens, White might have to look outside Australia for his international side.