A prediction for the AFL's top eight

Roar Guru

29th May, 2013

4619 Reads

Anyone can contribute to The Roar and have their work featured alongside some of Australia’s most prominent sports journalists.

Steve J

Roar Guru

29th May, 2013

4619 Reads

How many hours have I wasted … I mean spent productively on the AFL ladder predictor over the years? Mostly I admit in trying to devise a way that Fremantle could possibly make the finals.

Well I’m at it again and with the confidence gained from an average of seven from nine in my tipping this year I’ve decided to see which teams outside of the eight can make it and which teams currently in the eight will drop out.

I have a method to my madness. If the teams are close then I will go with the home side, especially if the visitor is coming from out of state.

Case in point this weekend. There will be close match-ups between Adelaide (H) and Freo, Sydney (H) and Essendon, Pies and Lions (H), Bulldogs (H) and Port (sorry Port you are not that far above the bottom six as a lot of people may think), and Eagles (H) and Tigers.

For all their yo-yoing this year I would expect the Pies to account for the Lions. For the rest I am tipping the home side.

For games where there is a clear difference (say three wins on the ladder) I will tip the higher-ranked team. When it is two teams from the same state and they are close on the ladder I have gone with my gut instinct.

So in the remaining rounds I have picked Essendon to beat Carlton, Cats to beat Hawks, and Freo to beat West Coast (based on Fremantle having won nine of the past 12, and the last two by an average of seven goals, West Coast fans!).

So here’s my final eight:

Geelong – 21 wins
Hawthorn – 19 wins
Essendon – 17 wins
Sydney – 16.5 wins
Fremantle – 15.5 wins
Carlton – 14 wins
Collingwood – 14 wins
Adelaide – 13 wins

Of the current eight I am swapping West Coast (out) for Collingwood (in).

I have West Coast and Richmond missing by a game on 12 wins each, with the Lions a further game behind. For both West Coast and Richmond to finish on 12 that means they will get only seven wins from their final 12 games. So which are their possible five losses?

For West Coast I have selected the following as losses; Geelong (Patersons), Freo (Patersons), Hawthorn (Etihad), Adelaide (AAMI), Collingwood (MCG).

West Coast have a tougher second half of the season than the first and need more than just Nic Naitanui to drag them across the line, especially as the final 12 rounds only sees them play three teams that are ‘out of contention’ in Gold Coast, St Kilda and the Doggies.

The Tigers have some pretty tough assignments to come against West Coast (Patersons), Norths (Etihad), Freo (Etihad), Sydney (SCG), Adelaide (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Carlton (MCG) and Essendon (MCG).

Of those I picked them to beat Freo, Adelaide and Carlton. The other games should cost them their finals chances.

Of course any of those results reversed could see West Coast or Richmond making the final eight. The West Coast v Adelaide/Collingwood/Richmond match-ups and Richmond v Adelaide/Carlton/North could be the games that decide the make-up of the 8 in 2013.

And of course North could be the big spoilers if they can turn their narrow losses into wins. But that would mean 10 wins from their final 12 matches to get to the magical 13 I think will be required.

It should be a cracker of a final 12 rounds.

And yes, I am a biased Freo supporter.

Join the conversation

Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.