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Leaning against a wall in Mark Neeld’s office is one of those “Keep Calm and Carry On” posters. At least, there usually is. Perhaps he took it to the Melbourne board room yesterday.
According to reports, that meeting was supposed to be the end of Neeld.
Instead, calm prevailed and he survived, although clearly not by much — president Don McLardy’s statement was not a vote of confidence.
Even though the Dees are playing too badly for the board not to have the discussion, calm is not a bad outcome.
As unsexy as it might seem, it was in fact the right response.
“Melbourne were always going backwards this year. Always.” I wrote that in April and despite the time since, still critics don’t understand how limited the Demons’ potential was this season.
They lost 1050 games of AFL experience in the break yet only added 384 games worth. More than a third of their list had not played a game for Melbourne at the start of the year.
Neeld and the footy department had clearly decided they were starting from scratch.
That “recruiting spree” everyone talked about was a handful of moves to avoid completely hitting the self-destruct button — by replacing 1050 games with anything less than 300 — and to give young players the sort of guidance that doesn’t immediately reveal itself on the field.
Of course, it helps that Chris Dawes is starting to show his worth, but if you thought this was a team capable of true improvement you had it horribly, horribly wrong.
It was never going to happen.
Now, if you take a team that won four games — propped up by wins against expansion teams — and then accept they will go backwards, what do you think they’re going to look like?
Obviously, pretty darn awful. That shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Their percentage after ten games last year was 54.6. Their percentage after ten games this year is 51.4. We shouldn’t be losing ourselves over this.
Yet, yesterday afternoon, like moths to a light bulb, there we all were waiting for an answer. Most of us, it seemed, content with the idea Neeld was gone.
Yes, yes, I’ve heard. “There’s been no improvement” and “the message isn’t getting through”. Of course. When a bad side plays bad, that has to be it.
But Round 2 against Essendon genuinely appears as though it was this team’s rock bottom.
In Round 2, they laid 35 tackles. Since then, they’ve laid less than 50 only once.
In Round 2, they had 28 inside 50s. Since then, they’ve had less than 40 only twice.
In Round 2, they had 11 scoring shots. Since then, they’ve had less than 17 only once.
It’s true, this means every now and then they lapse. It’s true, 17 scoring shots isn’t a massive hurdle to clear.
But it comes back to expectations. It’s completely normal for a side like this to lapse and the hurdles we set for them can’t be too ridiculous.
This perspective doesn’t sell papers, but the fact is you don’t go from that horrid Round 2 performance to challenging the flag favourites in eight weeks.
You go from that horrid game to a slightly less horrid game. Then the next week you’re slightly less horrid again and perhaps good enough to sneak a win against a GWS.
Then you have some ups and downs, which might include a backward step on a long road trip to Perth. Forgivable. Then, maybe then, you can win a quarter against the flag favourites despite still being flogged because, I don’t know, maybe they are the flag favourites for a reason.
That is what “improvement” looks like for a team like Melbourne.
If I’m the Dees board, keeping calm is my mantra from now until the end of the season.
That does not mean sticking with Neeld at all costs. If the side creates a new rock bottom by being comprehensively destroyed to the scale of that Bombers defeat again, that’s when you know the message isn’t getting through.
Similarly, a percentage in the 50s at season’s end probably won’t cut it.
Indeed, with twelve coaching changes in the past three years leaving ten experienced coaches without a senior gig, at either of these points pulling the trigger becomes sensible.
But the more one digs into the facts of this situation — such as those from the off-season or performances since Round 2 — the more one realises the storm isn’t fully justified.
Melbourne have been really bad, but the claims against Neeld haven’t always been with foundation. And all along, the spotlight needed to be shared between him and the entire footy department, who it’s fair to say haven’t really provided Neeld an A-grade list to work with.
At yesterday’s meeting, interim CEO Peter Jackson — who will now be in the job until the end of 2014, rightly — recommended exactly that. He outlined changes to the structure of the footy department that need to take place, changes the board approved of. It was a case of better late than never.
As for Neeld, going forward, the fixture provides a fair and reasonable judging ground.
The Dees have played teams from the current bottom five just twice. In the second half of the year they have five games against them.
Give Neeld the chance to navigate that draw. See what happens.
Until then, carry on.