Barring any awful training mishaps, we all know who will be running on in both red and gold on Saturday night. There’s no more scope for the endless speculation around team selections. At least not for this Test.
But with the announcement of the teams, the speculation has now turned to how each team will play – what tactics will be employed?
I’d like to present my thoughts, and in particular how I think the Wallabies can beat the Lions in this first Test.
Firstly, in defence the best option for the Wallabies will be to continually rush up, shut down the Lions backline before the ball gets out too wide and a ‘move’ can be executed. With their forward momentum they must also stay on their feet and pressure the breakdown. Picking the ball up after they have driven over the top should be the general rule.
Sounds easy when you type it out, but the trick will be coming up in a line, and there are many players in this Wallaby squad who aren’t used to playing with each other. So I hope they’ve been practicing this.
If the Wallabies do win a turnover in their own half – and a break isn’t on immediately – they must employ the tactic that worked for the Brumbies – kick long and keep play up the Lions end of the field.
If the Wallabies get a turnover in the Lions half, anything goes. If a break isn’t on immediately from turnover ball then retain possession and mix up forwards driving forwards in pods, pick-and-goes and backline plays. The backs must be conscious of their support and body height in the tackle.
The Lions will have tried to address this, but all of our Super sides had success spreading the ball wide and going around the rushing Lions defence.
I think James O’Connor will look to run a lot of the time, get stuck in the ruck. A key here will be how, where and when Barnes injects himself.
Adam Ashley-Cooper doesn’t have the best of passing games. If Barnes injects himself in the backline, either he or Lealifano might be the ones to throw the long pass over, or fast-and-flat in front of the Lions’ outside defender(s).
I think bombs and other kicking in behind the Lions is something else that should be employed, albeit sparingly and intelligently. The Wallabies need to ensure they have (a) chasers ready and (b) a genuine chance to regain the ball before they execute this.
We mustn’t mindlessly box kick, chip or grubber possession away. The Lions will be too good at counter-attacking from anything like this. Either that or they will boot the ball long themselves.
We’re not going to dominate in the scrum, so we should be trying to avoid them with quick taps when we have the option. When we don’t, getting it in and out quickly should be the objective.
Palu will need to be on his game the way Kimlin was on Tuesday night – dive in there and get it; be strong over the ball; keep Mike Phillips at bay.
We must challenge in the lineout though – at least in the Lions half. In the Wallabies half I think the Lions will consistently look to go straight into a rolling maul from their lineouts, so we may need to concede them and sack the maul before it can get rolling.
As always the breakdown will be the key. Although many have accused the Brumbies forwards through the season as leaking penalties, I think they are actually very intelligent about it.
You have to push the boundaries and figure out what the ref’s interpretation is on the day, and there are times when conceding a penalty is preferable to a try.
I think Mowen and Hooper will do this. I’m actually more worried about Horwill, Douglas and Palu on the penalty front. They are all good players – and Horwill in particular I hugely respect – but I think all three of them get fired up, block out the warnings of the ref and have a hard time resisting temptation.
While Vunipola and Cole are fantastic assets to have on the Lions bench, I think the rest of their bench is a fair step down from their starting side. But I’m more worried about our bench. We don’t really have any impact players like Higginbotham or McMeniman to bring on.
Beale might add some spark in the backs if needed, but Gill is the only forward that could conceivably come on and rip into the breakdowns if our forwards are flagging.
Use of the bench will be an interesting component in the outcome of the game as well. I have a feeling Deans will keep the starting 15 on the field deep into the second half unless forced into a change through injury.
Finally, and on the plus side for the Wallabies, leadership will also be key. While the Lions have some very savvy veterans – in particular Brian O’Driscoll – on the field, there are three Wallabies with leadership written all over them who will need to be exerting it out on the field.
Will Genia will need to be very vocal with James O’Connor and others in a completely new backline. The Lions know he is a key player and will be definitely targeting him.
Where possible they will look to tie him up in the bottom of rucks and the like – all totally legally of course! He mustn’t let that stifle his own running game though. Nor should he resort to the ‘safety’ of box kicks.
James Horwill will need to keep his forwards fired up while ensuring discipline is maintained – his own and theirs! Hooper will help out in this regard. Horwill must also keep in the refs ear to ensure, among other things, that those totally legal measures the Lions take against Genia don’t stray into something else.
And Mowen must maintain his own intensity around the field and be particularly astute in the lineouts.
On a man-for-man basis I maintain that the Lions have an edge over the Wallabies. We can’t claim that we have established combinations, whereas they are only recently thrown together. Tactically I think the Lions coaching staff have the wood on ours too. So the Wallabies are definitely the underdogs in this match…
But I think the Brumbies did us all a favour the other day. Rather than getting a wake-up call, I think the Lions’ confidence will be a little dented.
I’m hoping there will come some moments in the game when the Lions look up and see guys like Hooper, Mowen, Horwill and Genia are not bowed. The Welsh contingent (and captain) in particular will remember last year when they were also favourites to win, and a little bit of doubt will creep into their minds.
Only time will tell though. Bring on Saturday night!
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