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2013 Tour de France: Four big questions

4th July, 2013
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That hurts... Chris Froome cracks in tough day, behind Cadel Evans (Image supplied)
Expert
4th July, 2013
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Is Chris Froome too flighty? Is Peter Sagan staggering? Is Mark Cavendish unstoppable? Is Matt Goss gone?

The opening stages of this highly entertaining 100th edition of the Tour de France have raised many questions, the answers to which may provide us with the key to unlocking how the rest of the Tour pans out.

Let’s examine the four questions raised above and see what answers we can deduce.

Is Chris Froome too flighty?
Perhaps, but it will be to the benefit of the viewers.

Not surprisingly, given the nature of the first six stages, most of the focus has been on the sprinters. The general classification riders are yet to turn a pedal in anger, except for a brief moment towards the end of Stage 2 when a frisky Froome decided to get out of his saddle and stretch his legs in what many thought was a fruitless waste of energy on a small, meaningless hill.

True, he did gain a small break over his rivals, but it was never going to stick, and after almost misjudging a corner on the twisting descent, Froome sat up and merged back into the peloton.

He was widely criticised for his apparent rush of blood, but the criticism also came from the same people who bemoaned the boring style in which Team Sky wore down their opponents last year.

You can’t have it both ways people!

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From the moment Froome launched his mini-attack on Stage 2, cycling fans should have been rejoicing. It was the first indication that Sky’s defence of this year’s Tour may not follow the same tedious pattern as last year, whether they want it to or not.

Chris Froome is his own man. He is a bike racer who rides to win. He may be awkward, he may be accident prone, but he’ll never die wondering. With nothing (or no-one) to hold him back, expect to see more of Froome testing out the legs of his rivals, especially when we hit the higher mountain passes.

Yes, Sky will try and wear down their opponents with that almost unsustainable steady pace at the front of the group – let’s face it, they still have the team to do it – but Froome, if he is feeling good, may just try and ride off into the sunset anyway.

Whether he wins the Tour or goes down in a flaming heap, you can rest assured that, even if we can’t work out the theory behind his tactics, he will ride with more panache than Sir Bradley Wiggins did before him.

In fact he already has. In that short couple of minutes of apparent madness on Stage 2, Froome has already been more exciting than Wiggins was throughout the entire 2012 Tour.

Is Peter Sagan staggering?
Has wonderboy’s form finally plateaued?

Probably not, but some questions do need to be asked.

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Two seconds and a third are good reward for any cyclist, but for the Cannondale team leader who has a dedicated band of merry men dancing around him, protecting him from the elements, it may not be enough.

Sagan is not a pure sprinter, although he is a damn good one. His favourite parcours is one with a kick in its tail. The Slovakian is almost unequalled on an uphill sprint finish and his chance to stand on the top podium spot over the next two weeks will come.

However, one must question his timing over the frantic last few hundred metres of a sprint, and perhaps his tactical nous as well. He was beaten by marking the wrong rider at Milan-San Remo earlier this year, and had a string of minor placings in the spring classics before finally snagging a victory.

He was unlucky in Stage 2 to be beaten by Jan Bakelants’ last gasp breakaway win, but his failure to overcome Orica-GreenEDGE’s Simon Gerrans in a drag race to the line at the end of Stage 3 would have to trouble the young tyro.

Nine times out of ten Sagan should beat Gerrans in that scenario, so why didn’t he? Was it bad positioning leading into the sprint? A lack of legs? Overconfidence? A tactical error? Or just a bad day?

Two days later, he was beaten by a far superior sprinter in Mark Cavendish. Nothing surprising about that really, but consider this. The Stage 5 sprint looked to be a head to head battle between Andre Greipel’s Lotto-Belisol and Cavendish’s Omega Pharma-Quickstep, except that it was gate crashed by two ring ins.

Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen, led out beautifully by Gert Steegmans, timed his run perfectly and weaved his way beautifully through the milling throng to score himself second place.

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The second gate crasher was Sagan, and the aerial shot of the finish was quite illuminating. Sagan accelerated into the picture from nowhere, closing down the advantage of Cavendish and Greipel almost instantly. But that was where it ended. He drew level with Greipel, but without a kick or the ability to sustain the speed he had used to get there, Cavendish just waltzed away.

Sure he beat Greipel to the line, but it was another minor placing that could have been a step or two higher had he entered the final hundred metres in better position or timed his run slightly differently.

This is a harsh assessment, as Cavendish has no peer when it comes to flat bunch sprints, and I have no doubt that Sagan was riding his guts out, but perhaps this is as good as it gets for the young Slovakian?

As I said, his time will come on the more difficult uphill sprints, where his amazing strength will see him triumph more often than not, but for finishes that require a little more tactical thought or timing, Sagan may have already reached his zenith.

Is Mark Cavendish unstoppable?
No he isn’t, but only when he is sick.

Seriously though, once again Cavendish has proved just how good he is. His victory over all the main sprint contenders in Stage 5 was stunning.

In what turned out to be a head-to-head battle with Greipel’s Lotto-Belisol outfit, Cavendish made the best of a scrappy lead out to win riding away from Greipel, Sagan and Boasson Hagen. Honestly, he made it look easy.

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While he may never win another green jersey, he will almost certainly break the Tour stage win record currently held by cycling immortal Eddy Merckx.

Cavendish is all about winning bike races and I’m sure if you asked him whether he would swap his stage win for Sagan’s two seconds, a third and overall lead in the green jersey competition, the Manxman would elect to hang onto his stage win.

Pre-Tour I suggested that Cavendish could win six stages of this year’s Tour. I’ve seen nothing to suggest that that still isn’t possible.

Is Matt Goss gone?
If he isn’t than he is haemorrhaging badly.

No doubt the Australian is trying his hardest to break his run of poor form, and no one would be more frustrated than him at his below-par performances.

Whether it is from the weight of expectation, illness, a lack of conditioning, attitude or just plain bad luck, it is hard to pinpoint exactly where things have gone wrong for Goss.

Stage 5 neatly summed up the situation for the Orica-GreenEDGErider. He wasn’t the only rider to drop off the pace on the small, uncategorised climb that appeared with just 12 kilometres to go, but he was the only one of the major sprinters not to stay in touch with the peloton.

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Even Cavendish, a notoriously dodgy climber, made it and with enough energy to spare to go on and win the sprint from Boasson Hagen, Sagan and Greipel.

Whether Goss is in shape or not, his confidence must be taking a battering. Not making the finish of Stage 5 confirms that he is not the rider he once was, and as a result Orica-GreenEDGE will be looking for other options in the sprints to come.

He is lucky his team has had such a successful start to the Tour, otherwise the glow from the blowtorch would be absolutely blinding.

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