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The NRL 16: Where they will finish

Matt Moylan has led the Panthers on a five game winning run going into the finals (AAP Image/Action Photographics, Renee McKay)
Roar Rookie
25th July, 2013
5

It’s mid-winter, the byes are all done, Origin is over and there’s a seven-game stretch to the finish line awaiting the NRL’s sixteen teams.

The make-up of the top eight will go a long way to determining who will make the big one in October, so rounds 20 to 26 take on vital importance as the teams scramble to clinch the coveted finals spots.

It’s on all league fans’ minds (except perhaps those of Parramatta supporters, who have most likely given up on this year) so for the little it is worth, here’s my take on the finishing order of the NRL’s participants.

Sydney Roosters

Currently: 2nd (30 pts, +221 diff)
Run home: Newcastle (a), Penrith (a), Canberra (h), Wests (a), Cronulla (a), Gold Coast (h), Souths (a)

Could it happen for the Roosters? Definitely. With a kind run home and the Roosters firing on all cylinders, I can see the men from the East having a perfect run from here on in. They’re fit, in form and have a knack of pinning down sides; they have not conceded a point so far this month. A mouth-watering Round 26 showdown with Souths could end up being a big test for the side but at this stage I would back them to beat the Bunnies and take out top spot come the end of the regular season. From there, anything’s possible.

Prediction: 1st

South Sydney

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Currently: 1st (32 pts, +190 diff)
Run home: Gold Coast (a), North Qld (a), Melbourne (a), Manly (h), Canterbury (h), Wests (a), Sydney (h)

Their once-secure lead atop the ladder no longer looks completely safe courtesy of the Bunnies’ tight loss to St George Illawarra on Monday night, coupled with Sydney’s 40-point demolition of the Sharks. No Greg Inglis for the next few weeks spells trouble in the warren. I can see Souths getting through the last seven matches of the season with five wins, slipping up against Canterbury and Sydney , the latter match which may well decide the minor premiership. If this happens though there will be nothing minor about Souths’ late-season fade-out which may have a negative impact on their state of mind heading into the finals and could indirectly result in a season which promised so much delivering so little.

Prediction: 2nd.

Manly Sea Eagles

Currently: 4th (25 pts, +145 diff)
Run home: Wests (a), Parramatta (a), New Zealand (h), Souths (a), Canberra (a), Melbourne (h), Penrith (h)

The Sea Eagles have flown into form in recent weeks and appear to have timed their run perfectly. A less-than-stellar mid-season stalled their momentum for a while but they appear to have rediscovered the spark that drove them during the first couple of months of 2013 and for most of the past couple of years. Save for the unfortunate Joe Galuvao and Jason King, their players are slowly returning to the deck and will be more than a handful for many of their opponents. The match against Souths away from home in Round 23 is the only game I can see them dropping between now and the finals and I can even see them toppling Melbourne at home in the penultimate week. A strong finals showing beckons.

Prediction: 3rd

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Melbourne Storm

Currently: 3rd (27 pts, +88 diff)
Run home: New Zealand (a), Canberra (a), Souths (h), Newcastle (a), Parramatta (h), Manly (a), Gold Coast (h)

The past five or six weeks have been a yo-yo for the Storm, a considerable part of which can be attributed to State of Origin and the effect it has on the club with three of the game’s best players. They have three big weeks ahead of them with games against the Warriors, Raiders (both away) and Souths (at home). Unfortunately for Storm fans I just can’t see them bringing home the goods in any of these matches. They will return to form against Newcastle and by and large hold onto it until the end of the regular season; I think they will hold onto a top four spot but Manly may well overtake them for third.

Prediction: 4th

Canterbury Bulldogs

Currently: 6th (22 pts, +10 diff)
Run home: Parramatta (h), St George Illawarra (a), Gold Coast (h), Canberra (a), Souths (a), Penrith (h), Brisbane (a)

It’s tough to know what to make of this mob. They started the season so poorly but have found their way (mostly) in recent weeks. That big win over the Storm was a highlight. But I feel it may end up being the highlight of the season. Too many of their players aren’t playing to their potential. They will hover around the top four and despite winning five of their last seven (dropping games against their two Queensland opponents) I think they will end up in fifth spot, which doesn’t put them completely out of the picture but it’s a tough place to make a grand final from.

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Prediction: 5th

Cronulla Sharks
Currently: 7th (22 pts, -41 diff)
Run home: Penrith (h), New Zealand (a), Newcastle (h), St George Illawarra (a), Sydney (h). North Qld (h), Canberra (a)

The spectre of ASADA still looms over the club’s head but they have performed admirably for most of the season. They’ll end the season well enough but I see them losing to the Warriors away, Sydney at home and Canberra away. Needless to say, much depends on the fitness and form of Gallen and Carney; their long injury list certainly doesn’t help matters. This team is at the better end of middle-of-the-road but if not for an interrupted year due to Origin and injuries, they could have finished much higher. But them’s the breaks.

Prediction: 6th

Canberra Raiders
Currently: 8th (22 pts, -44 diff)
Run home: St George Illawarra (a), Melbourne (h), Sydney (a), Canterbury (h), Manly (h), New Zealand (a), Cronulla (h)

The Raiders’ season never really hit any great heights, did it? A 32-10 first-round loss to Penrith gave way to some brilliant moments but overall they were few and far between. They’ll win four (against St George Illawarra, Melbourne, Canterbury and Cronulla) and lose three of their last seven. For a club that cops so much off the field (to the point of being everybody’s second-favourite team; the ultimate insult!) and having to put up with the Dugan-Ferguson debacle this year though, they haven’t done too badly. It’s remarkable that they’ve managed to reach the finals as often as they’ve missed out over the past decade or so, but regrettably it’s usually been in the lower reaches of the top eight and they’ve been able to do much damage. I sense a repeat this year.

Prediction: 7th

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Newcastle Knights
Currently: 5th (22 pts, +95 diff)
Run home: Sydney (h), Brisbane (h), Cronulla (a), Melbourne (h), North Qld (a), Brisbane (a), Parramatta (h)

I had to rub my eyes when I saw that Newcastle were in fifth place after last weekend’s action. Didn’t they sneak up quietly? Their big win over Penrith ensures they shan’t be taken lightly, but despite a reasonable run home I fear a string of wretched results. Bennett’s four-year job is expected to yield a premiership but it won’t be this year. A meek eighth place will be the result of an up-and-down year in Steel City, but in positive news Wayne still has two years to weave his magic.

Prediction: 8th

New Zealand Warriors
Currently: 11th (20 pts, -71 diff)
Run home: Melbourne (h), Cronulla (h), Manly (a), Penrith (h), Gold Coast (a), Canberra (h), St George Illawarra (a)

Starting your season with a 40-10 loss to Parramatta doesn’t exactly set the wheels in motion and it was four weeks before the Warriors finally posted a win. They’ve not at any stage been right up there with the best half-dozen teams in the league but on their day they can beat anybody home or away (as strong results against the Broncos, Sea Eagles and Roosters have shown). Mt Smart is a fortress for them and I can see them smiling after each of their four remaining home games, but they will lose the others and finish the season just outside the eight although differentials might come into it. It must be frustrating being a Warriors fan; so much potential never seems to yield results, and for all their promise they’ve not won a grand final in nearly two decades of trying. Maybe soon but not this year.

Prediction: 9th

Penrith Panthers
Currently: 9th (20 pts, +47 diff)
Run home: Cronulla (a), Sydney (h), North Qld (h), New Zealand (a), Brisbane (h), Canterbury (a), Manly (a)

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To be kind is to say the Panthers have an unfashionable squad. On the face of it this season might be written off by some as another disappointing one, but for who they have in their line-up (and who they’ve lost since 2012) they haven’t done too badly. It’s good for them that they’ve been able to re-sign Kevin Kingston, but who knows what Jamie Soward will bring to the table in 2014. Despite being capable of maybe a little more the Panthers have never really been a threat this year and will finish the season outside the eight; I can see them beating the Cowboys and the Broncos but other than that they’ve got a pretty tough run ahead.

Prediction: 10th

Brisbane Broncos

Currently: 12th (16 pts, -38 diff)
Run home: North Qld (a), Newcastle (a), St George Illawarra (h), Parramatta (h), Penrith (a), Newcastle (h), Canterbury (h)

Not making the finals is considered a failure in the Phil Gould-proclaimed League Capital of Brisbane, and given that is all but certain to happen, not much more can be said about the Broncos of 2012. Recruiting Scott Prince has proven to be a mistake and the ongoing ripple effect of Corey Norman’s departure might hurt the club in the seasons ahead. They have the backline and forwards to match it with most but their halves are a problem area and their bench isn’t a strong enough point of difference to be concerning for other teams. They’re a few years of development away from returning to the summit yet. A glut of home games at the end of the season could lift their placing a little bit but it won’t disguise what has been a well-below-par year for the Broncos. But at least they’ll finish the best of the Queensland teams.

Prediction: 11th
Gold Coast Titans

Currently: 10th (20 pts, -23 diff)
Run home: Souths (h), Wests (h), Canterbury (a), North Qld (a), New Zealand (h), Sydney (a), Melbourne (a)

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Haven’t these guys fallen away? Mid-season they were pushing the top four for all they had and finals footy seemed a fait accompli. Now it’s a pipedream. A very tricky run home doesn’t help and I can only see them besting Wests and New Zealand before season’s end. Letting Scott Prince go to the Broncos has turned out to be a good move but the club has failed to fire when it was needed most; a prerequisite for any top-eight team. Such a disappointing season on the Strip.

Prediction: 12th

North Queensland Cowboys

Currently: 13th (16 pts, -45 diff)
Run home: Brisbane (h), Souths (h), Penrith (a), Gold Coast (h), Newcastle (h), Cronulla (a), Wests (h)

They were tipped for big things by many back in February. A win over Canterbury in Round 1 appeared the perfect start until two things happened: the Bulldogs proved to be a rabble and the Cowboys lost the plot. It’s hard to point out where it went wrong exactly; 2013 was shaping as the year the club would build upon its impressive 2012 and push for its first silverware. Thurston must be wondering what more he needs to do to win a premiership. They should beat their two Queensland cousins but it won’t be enough to get them above their local rivals on the table let alone anywhere near the top eight.

Prediction: 13th

St George Illawarra Dragons

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Currently: 14th (16 pts, -111 diff)
Run home: Canberra (h), Canterbury (h), Brisbane (a), Cronulla (h), Wests (h), Parramatta (a), New Zealand (h)

What can be said about their season? Not much. They’re in fourteenth spot now and I can’t see much changing. Bragging rights over the Tigers and Eels in the battle to avoid the wooden spoon is all they have left to shoot for this year; they should beat these two teams and then maybe the Warriors in Round 26. Next year they should be top-eight team with their new signings and Josh Dugan more fully integrated into the squad, but nothing can save them for this year. It’s hard to believe they won a premiership just three seasons ago.

Prediction: 14th

Wests Tigers
Currently: 15th (16 pts, -181 diff)
Run home: Manly (h), Gold Coast (a), Parramatta (a), Sydney (h), St George Illawarra (a), Souths (h), North Qld (a)

It’s hard to believe they beat the Storm just a month ago. That will prove to be the highlight of a shockingly upsetting 2013 for Tiger lovers. Their squad is capable of so much more it’s scary. Adam Blair has not performed since moving from the Storm post-2011, Robbie Farah all too often ends up carrying the team, Lote Tuqiri has been a waste of money and salary cap space and the Benji Marshall saga has taken up a lot more column inches than are available here. What’s the answer – is it a new coach, new halves, new forwards or playing more games at Leichhardt even??? Whatever the case, Tigers fans should start planning for 2014 and grit their teeth through the remaining seven games because I cannot see them winning a single one.

Prediction: 15th

Parramatta Eels
Currently: 16th (10 pts, diff -242)
Run home: Canterbury (a), Manly (h), Wests (h), Brisbane (a), Melbourne (a), St George Illawarra (h), Newcastle (a)

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Supporting Parramatta nowadays appears to be not so much a pastime as it is something torturous to endure. They are comfortably the worst-performing team in the league across season 2013 and that will not change come round 26. The imminent arrival of 2011’s wunderkind Will Hopoate and Brisbane young gun Corey Norman: will it work? Or will the emotional damage caused by Ricky Stuart’s decision to jettison almost half of the 2013 squad be too tough to overcome? Who knows. Parramatta used to be the fans’ favourite team of the West but with the club’s seemingly endless poor fortunes on and off the field and the rise of the Western Sydney Wanderers, it’s hard to see any highlights in the near future for the Eels. Unless a possible win against local rivals (sort of ) Wests in Round 23 counts as a highlight. Last place for Parramatta will make it a brace of wooden spoons for the once-proud club.

Prediction: 16th

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