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Australia is on top but still some distance from wrestling this Test match from England.
With the weather and the fighting spirit of this England team, there are major obstacles to Australia avoiding the calamity of losing the Ashes after just three Tests.
The weather for Sunday looks fair and a full day of cricket should be played. The weather for Monday looks decidedly average and the chance of a full 90 seems highly unlikely.
It doesn’t seem fair on the Aussies but this is Old Trafford and it would be unheard of to get five fair and sunny days. It just doesn’t happen in Manchester.
Take that as a given and this game has become one of ‘cricket roulette’ for Michael Clarke and one where he will need to be at his cunning best to mould a positive outcome. In simple terms, Australia will need to be in a winning position at the end of day four or it is curtains.
On England’s part, they will just want to absorb as much time as possible and in an ideal world at least get to the lunch break.
Of course their first priority will be to avoid the follow on, and with Matt Prior and Stuart Broad at the crease, and with Graeme Swann’s ability to swing the bat that should be safely negotiated. If England musters another 75 or so, that will do nicely leaving them in the order of 150 behind.
If the scenario eventuates, 150 is not quite enough for Australia to take the bold step of forfeiting and crucial time will be taken up. Australia will probably want at least to set 250 for England to chase but given the circumstances may need to settle for something in the order of 220 or 230.
Either way getting another 80 to 100 runs, and with Alastair Cook having the luxury of setting defensive fields, it will still probably take 20-30 overs.
If England uses up 25-30 overs and Australia about the same, there might be just one session of 30 odd overs for Australia to get into a winning position.
That is where this Test will be decided and if England are set something between 220 to 250, make a good start (remembering Clarke will need to attack) and get to the end of the day with 70 or 80, then the possibility of an England win cannot be ruled out.
Chasing another 150 on the last day with rain around is still an uphill task but this is an England team that knows how to win.
Of course the shoe will be on the other foot if Australia can get 3 or 4 wickets prior to day’s end and then they will cross their fingers and toes that they at least get 40 overs to get the remaining wickets.
Weather, obdurate English batsman and the rub of the green will all play their part. Intriguing stuff but at the current odds of 24/1 England might still worth a small spec. This delusional Englishman thinks so.
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