The record of the Liston Stakes, now known as the P.B Lawrence, has fallen away in recent years when it comes to being a key pointer to the major spring races.
Connections generally prefer to wait for the Memsie Stakes over the same course and distance a fortnight later.
That said, the list of winners over the last decade is a roll-call of classy sprinter-milers and 2000m horses, each of them stars at one time or another.
The only horse that probably doesn’t fit that bill in recent times was last year’s winner Second Effort, who will be defending his title.
None of the horses in this year’s edition fit the profile of the classier winners, and there’s not a weight-for-age horse to be seen among them.
Puissance de Lune is a horse with star presence however, and rarely has a boom lasted as long as the one this Darren Weir-trained galloper is carrying. I had to watch his Queen Elizabeth Stakes win at Flemington again to make sure his five length victory wasn’t twenty-five, which I’d thought it must have been considering the reaction since.
His only start since was in the Autumn, following the Melbourne Cup-winning Green Moon path, sharing the Blamey in a dead heat with Budriguez, grinding his way to the line. With his main target being 82 days away over more than twice the distance, you won’t catch me going anywhere near the easing $2.30 on offer about him in this race.
Second Effort is ever-consistent at his right level in the right conditions, and will no doubt be thereabouts again. The softer the track the better for him, and it’s hard to see him missing out on a top three finish from barrier four on dead or worse ground.
Launay is the 1400m and second-up specialist of the field, and he gets both of these in his favour tomorrow. He’s been around for a while, never having more than a handful of starts each campaign, and although he’s never saluted beyond Listed level, this looks like the race for him. His third behind Second Effort in the Bletchingly was a perfect lead-up for this.
His Caulfield record is solid, and also better than it reads on paper. This is an honest horse and proven weight carrier that meets the right race at the right time. Currently $7, in from $8.50, with Sportsbet, he’s an each-way special on dead ground or better.
Under the Sun comes down from Sydney to provide nuisance value for the Gai Waterhouse stable, and should make his presence felt settling at the front with the two four year olds, High Esteem and Ajeeb.
Under the Sun has Mic Mac form, albeit with a significant weight pull, and shouldn’t be taken lightly.
It won’t shock me to see Ajeeb knock all of these off, as it feels like that sort of race, but I will be slightly surprised. It would certainly be the first step towards telling us that last year’s three year olds can take all before them.
Pago Rock is another who has claims in an open race, a horse in good form that throws in the odd poor one, disappointing his supporters in the Bletchingly.
Selections (first and second to be swapped on slow or worse)
1.Launay 2.Second Effort 3.Under the Sun 4.Puissance de Lune
Recent winners of the San Domenico have mainly gone on to scale greater heights, with several three year olds going onto be group 1 performers, either winning or placing at the highest level, often against older horses.
While it would appear to be an obvious starting point for many Golden Rose runners, only one horse has completed the double. One of the reasons for this is the race has been the domain of genuine sprinters, rather than those who are at their best over longer than six furlongs.
All but one horse is first-up from the Autumn, so having a bet can be something of a guessing game when we don’t know exactly which horses have come on from their two year old year.
Sidestep is the class horse of the field, having won almost as much prize money as the rest of his competitors combined, courtesy of a second in the Golden Slipper. Third favourite for the Caulfield Guineas and with a Cox Plate nomination beside his name, will he be speedy enough with 58.5kg’s on his back? He might be a false favourite at $3.30.
Kuroshio looks value at $10, and has been steady with Sportsbet since opening. He looks a genuine sprinter who puts himself in the race. His best has been reserved for Caulfield and Flemington in his short career, but he did run into wet tracks when failing in the Sydney Autumn.
Whittington finished alongside Kuroshio in the Slipper, and has trialled twice leading into this race, as is the way with Waterhouse runners. The form behind his wins is still questionable, but he’s a speed horse that will surely be in it for a long way.
Whiskey Allround is the Queensland visitor from the Tony Gollan stable, returning to Sydney after a second behind Sweet Idea in the Silver Slipper and failure in the Todman when he’d come to the end of his prep. Another with two trials under his belt, he’s been the best backed runner in the early markets, $8 into $6.50.
Windjammer is the only runner with the benefit of a run this prep, an authoritative win at Rosehill two weeks back. He was a couple of lengths off this sort of field in the lead up to the Slipper, but may have made them up over his break. He’ll appreciate a 3kg drop from his win, and is right in the mix.
Of the other horses in the race, Never Can Tell and Va Pensiero have form around Whittington, Cluster is highly rated within the Anthony Cummings stable, while Fast Dragon is a Kiwi winner over a mile who would be the only horse to shock.
Frankly, this race is something of a lottery, so I’ll be looking for value, but history tells us the winner is one to watch, and the form strong.
Selections
1.Whittington 2.Kuroshio 3.Sidestep 4.Whiskey Allround
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
