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Spring Carnivals are often shaped in August but very rarely are definitive statements made in winter.
It’s especially the case in the history of the PB Lawrence (1400m, Group 2, weight-for-age), a race whose winner has not gone on to win any of the three spring majors in the last 20 years.
So here are the two most interesting questions for racing fans to answer in the wake of Puissance De Lune’s breathtaking victory in Saturday’s Lawrence: Does Puissance De Lune have a mortgage on both the Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age) and Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap) as his odds of $5 for both races suggest? Or is the $5 quote the greatest example of ‘unders’ in the history of Cups betting?
You could argue that Saturday’s renewal of the Lawrence was particularly weak. For a Group 2 weight-for-age race, there was no genuine Group 2 weight-for-age horse in the field, save for Puissance De Lune.
The detractors of Puissance De Lune (which translates to a meaning of ‘power of moon’) will argue that any horse threatening for the Melbourne Cup had to dispose of that field.
Having then seen Puissance De Lune win with such ease, perhaps those same detractors would also argue that Puissance De Lune is too far forward in his preparation. It’s only August and he needs to be peaking in November. After all, no horse has ever done the Lawrence-Melbourne Cup double.
On top of that, Puissance De Lune is a hot favourite to win the best two races in Australia, the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup, without ever having met a genuine Group 1 animal on the racetrack.
You can form a decent argument to pot Puissance De Lune. Anyone doing it wouldn’t be enticed by the pre-post odds especially when there’s still nine Saturdays standing between today and the Cox Plate.
But against all the negatives, I’m prepared to believe in Puissance De Lune. Surer than I ever have been, I think he could win the Cox Plate and probably will win the Melbourne Cup.
In fact, I think he’s on-track to be the shortest starting-price favourite in the Melbourne Cup since Redcraze finished second in 1956 at odds of 7-4 ($2.75).
If Puissance De Lune arrives at Flemington an undefeated horse this campaign, remembering that he’s likely to be favourably handicapped with 54 or 55kgs, he’ll be so short odds of $5 will look like 50-1.
On Sunday morning, I sat down and re-watched every Australian start Puissance De Lune has had since arriving from France. I concluded that only three things can beat Puissance De Lune in a Melbourne Cup: an injury; bad luck during the race or failure to run-out the 3200m.
Puissance De Lune hasn’t run a bad race in Australia. I think the big grey has one of the best engines in the country. He always closes off powerfully.
The scary thing is, regardless of whether he’s been ridden close to the speed or back near last, without fail he lengthens beautifully in the straight. Nine times out of ten, he’s the strongest finisher in the race.
For a horse that has only competed in handicap races before Saturday, Puissance De Lune should make light work of the transition to weight-for-age racing. And, as a feat, that shouldn’t be underestimated.
Handicappers don’t often make the weight-for-age cut, especially at carnival time. Those horses are either beaten by the rise in standard or rise in weight they have to carry.
But not Puissance De Lune. He is simply too classy. And it showed on Saturday, when at his weight-for-age debut, he make easy work of his rivals and the 59kgs he was allotted.
It will get harder as the opposition gets better but if Puissance De Lune doesn’t win the Cox Plate, I don’t think it will be because he isn’t up to weight-for-age racing.
So as a weight-for-age horse, how good does Puissance De Lune look with 54 or 55kgs in the Melbourne Cup? He looks a weighted certainty.
Tactically Puissance De Lune is bombproof. Because if there’s genuine speed in a race, Puissance De Lune can be positioned in midfield or worse, yet he can also lead or be cushioned behind the speed without it affecting his finishing spurt.
Having won the Queen Elizabeth (2600m, Group 3, handicap) so impressively from the speed last spring, one can assume Puissance De Lune can stay a decent trip.
But if Glen Boss was worried about the grey’s ability to run-out the Melbourne Cup’s 3200m journey, he could easily settle the grey in midfield in an attempt to help Puissance De Lune finish the race off.
Who knows if Puissance De Lune has a 3200m issue. But if he does, his versatility gives him every chance to overcome it.
Is there any weakness in Puissance De Lune’s game?
The only thing I can put my finger on is his big size which has seen him get into trouble twice in his career when positioned next to the inside rail.
Puissance De Lune was beaten narrowly at Warrnambool as a $1.20 favourite last spring because he was put off-balance on the home turn when jockey Brad Rawiller attempted to shove the grey out of a pocket.
And in the Blamey (1600m, Group 2, set weights and penalties), this autumn, Puissance De Lune was denied outright victory, having to settle for a dead-heat, because he only saw daylight 200m from the finish.
Such is his considerable size Puissance De Lune isn’t very agile. Maybe he’d be vulnerable around the tight Moonee Valley circuit if he drew an inside marble in a Cox Plate. Maybe I’m plucking at straws.
In a Cox Plate it’s more likely Puissance De Lune encounters trouble in the form of the undefeated Atlantic Jewel or her stablemate Super Cool. Like Puissance De Lune, they go in search of champion status this spring.
Australian racing may be weak at the top but that just means the throne is there for the taking. There is no shortage of potential suitors. And perhaps Puissance De Lune is the best placed of all them.
The fact that plenty will disagree with that last statement is particularly exciting.
There is no shortage of interest in the 2013 spring. Puissance De Lune is polarising Melbourne Cup opinion in August. It’s probably unprecedented.
More so, it’s fantastic for racing. We are at the dawn of a great spring.
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