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According to the “Peter Principle” people are promoted in their career until they eventually reach their level of incompetence and can progress no further.
For rugby players this means a transition through schoolboy, age-group, club and representative levels, to professional Super Rugby contracts and ultimately, for a select few, national honours.
For many, the Peter Principle kicks in early – for some third grade suburban club players, second grade is a bridge too far.
For others, the Richie McCaws of this world for example, the Peter Principle never applies. One imagines that if another level of rugby existed, perhaps an intergalactic series between earth and other rugby playing planets, McCaw would handle this with the same ease he handles Test rugby.
In the aftermath of the opening two Bledisloe Cup contests, analysis of the Wallabies performances from within the team and those outside has canvassed a wide range of possibilities.
Weak or incompetent refereeing failing to adequately punish cynical All Black play, too many mistakes, missed tackles, lateral backline attack, lack of mongrel, no impact from the bench, too little kicking, poor kicking, faltering line-out and an underpowered scrum are among many failings identified.
In the case of the All Blacks some of the same complaints apply.
But because the Blacks were more incisive at crucial times, able to convert opportunities to the tune of eight tries to three and because they actually won – the spotlight is directed towards Ewen McKenzie rather than Steve Hansen.
More rational and sober assessment of the Wallabies under McKenzie can be made as his side moves on to face opponents other than the world No 1 side.
While settling for second best is on nobody’s agenda, and with no disrespect meant to South Africa and Argentina, who will offer stern challenges in their own right, the Wallabies now get the opportunity to flourish outside of the intense pressure cooker that the All Blacks provide.
Whatever their collective faults, skills deficiencies and lack of depth in some positions, this is not a poor Wallabies side – they are capable and spirited and it is fair to expect happier days ahead for Wallabies supporters.
That is, assuming that the Peter Principle doesn’t apply.
The New Zealand squad includes a number of new or nearly new All Blacks, players such as Steven Luatua, Charles Piatau, Dane Coles, TJ Perenara and so on. Some who may go on to be great All Blacks, others who may simply be shorter term Test players.
On the evidence provided so far by Luatua and to a lesser extent Coles, and the promise of the other players, it would be a brave person who would suggest that none of these new All Blacks belong in Test rugby.
Even Tom Taylor, called in at late notice for his debut, looked for all money like an accomplished Test rugby player.
Yet incredibly, it’s possible that we may never see him in a black jersey again or, at least for some years, until injury or time is called on those ahead of him in the pecking order.
By contrast, the Wallabies squad includes players under strong suspicion of not being of Test quality.
Fullback Jesse Mogg did some good things in Saturday’s second Test, particularly in the first half. He secured an attacking turnover by chasing a kick and turning Israel Dagg in the tackle, and was very close to repeating the dose minutes later.
His kicking inconsistencies have been well documented, and similar errors under pressure at the business end of the Super Rugby season raise valid questions about his place at this level.
But for this writer, it is one particular failing, which above all else, brands him as a notch below Test match quality.
It is not sufficient at Test level to be competent. The basics should be a given and are just that, a base or starting point.
What Mogg lacks is either the ability or confidence – or both – to take players on. To beat them with a step or a dash or an audacious dummy.
By contrast, All Blacks full back Israel Dagg stuttered through a Super Rugby season where at times he looked variously disinterested, unconfident and downright ordinary.
But there can be no doubt in anyone’s mind which of the two players belongs in Test rugby.
Similar queries also apply to some of Mogg’s colleagues, most notably Matt Toomua and Christian Lealiifano, These are quality players who enjoyed strong Super Rugby seasons, who deserve their spots in the Wallabies squad.
They are also very young in terms of Test match experience, and it is far too soon to be writing them off. That said, Test match rugby cruelly does not provide concessions for inexperience – you either cut the mustard or you are found out.
It is time for both to show that they can actually create play and put pressure on Test level defences, and to organise backline attacks which provide Israel Folau with some of the opportunities gifted to Ben Smith.
Of all the frustrations expressed by exasperated Wallabies supporters, surely none are greater than this disparity.
Disregarding Smith’s short-side, turnover try in Sydney, how can it be that the All Blacks have provided him with four clear overlap tries, against no such opportunities for Folau or James O’Connor?
For the Wallabies this simply must change, in attack and defence, otherwise their wait for the Bledisloe Cup will be much longer still.
To illustrate the point, I enjoyed watching Nick Phipps help his University club side finish over the top of Manly in Sunday’s Shute shield play-off.
Phipps is a tough, willing competitor who has provided great value for the Melbourne Rebels in recent seasons.
Yet he is living proof of the Peter Principle. With Will Genia sidelined last year he assumed the starting role at halfback and now has 14 Test caps to his name.
Test match rugby however is an unforgiving beast, the toughest of tough schools, and Phipps, like many others before him, was unable to stamp himself as a true Test match player.
It is the number of these types of player relative to the All Blacks, which symptomises the Wallabies position.
Talk from the Wallabies camp is that Mogg’s time may already be up. For the sake of Toomua, Lealiifano and others, they will need to show more over the balance of the Rugby Championship to establish their Test credentials, lest they too succumb to the Peter Principle.