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Take a look at the starting XV for Australia’s must-win match against Argentina on Saturday in Perth.
You will see that missing from that list is a name synonymous with all things positive in Australian rugby during the last few years: Will Genia.
Prior to ex-Wallaby fullback and journalist Greg Martin’s scoop that Will Genia was to be dropped to the bench (confirmed the following day when the official starting line-up was announced), I am sure very few Australian (or Argentinean) rugby fans could have predicted it.
Dropping Will Genia is McKenzie’s biggest gamble yet – especially when you consider Genia’s outstanding performance under McKenzie’s tenure at the Queensland Reds.
It seems like a reckless move that could easily backfire for a multitude for reasons.
Firstly, Will Genia is the world’s best scrum-half.
His performances over the last few seasons for club and country have been excellent.
He was ever-present during the Reds’ 2011 Super Rugby triumph, with his try against the Crusaders a real highlight.
To drop Genia in such an important game is a baffling decision, akin to dropping Shane Warne or Glenn McGrath in the fifth Test of an Ashes series with the scores tied 2-2.
Though Genia hasn’t been great during the Rugby Championship, he hasn’t been awful. When you look at the Wallaby team, there are certainly other players that should have been dropped instead.
Quade Cooper didn’t have his best game against South Africa and was lucky not to have been dropped, but Australia’s other fly-half Matt Toomua has struggled as well, though to be fair when to have his first two Test matches against the All Blacks was certainly a tough ask.
Another change McKenzie should have made was in the front row: Prop Benn Robinson was unlucky to be omitted from the Rugby Championship squad.
It’s easy to see why he should have been in the squad – mainly because he is an expert in the scrum, and this is the one area where the Pumas could do some real damage to Australia, since the Wallabies can be chronically weak when it comes to scrum time.
The Argentineans would have taken note of Australia’s difficulty against the South Africans in Brisbane when it came to the scrum and breakdown. The Springboks were physical, able to produce several turnovers in the ruck, as they committed more men and were able to turn the ball over with ease at times.
It is no secret the Pumas’ scrum is their bread and butter, and in Hamilton last week gave the All Blacks a good contest.
The inclusion of Robinson could get help negate or at least degrade the potency of the Argentinean’s scrum.
It is well known the Pumas use their pack to win penalties when it comes to the scrum, use the penalty to try and gain good field position within the opposition half, or rack up points with their goal kicking.
Genia being dropped could backfire badly, as it looks like Australia is underestimating the Argentineans, which would be a bad idea.
New Zealand acknowledged the Pumas gave them a good game at Waikato Stadium last week, despite being in atrocious condition.
As well as the obvious potency in their scrum, the Puma loose forwards are one of the most underrated in world rugby and are excellent at the breakdown, not to mention extremely physical.
20-year-old Pablo Matera was excellent against South Africa in Mendoza, and made 13 tackles against New Zealand.
Juan Manuel Leguizamón took his try well as the Pumas capitalized on a rare mistake by the All Blacks, while captain Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe was in the forefront at the breakdown, as he always is for Argentina.
The Pumas’ back line are no slouches, with accurate goal-kicker Nicholas Sanchez at fly-half, as well as mercurial fullback Juan Martín Hernández, who is sublimely assured under the high ball.
Argentina also have another emerging talent in their backs that could cause Australia real problems: winger Juan José Imhoff.
The 24-year-old had an excellent season with French Top 14 side Racing Metro, and is a lethal finisher, scoring seven tries in 12 Heineken Cup games.
If Australia gives Imhoff time and space then he can easily beat his man, as he did last year when Australia faced the Pumas on the Gold Coast, rounding Nick Phipps with consummate ease. Australia was lucky to win.
Considering all this, dropping Will Genia is a really surprising decision to make.
It can be compared to Warren Gatland omitting Brian O’Driscoll from his 23 man squad altogether in the third Test of the Lions series against Australia in July.
Gatland relied instead on his Welsh players, which ultimately worked because they won comfortably, but at the time O’Driscoll’s omission was a huge shock to many.
To be fair, Genia’s replacement Nic White is a good player who had an excellent season for the Brumbies. But to drop the best scrum-half in the world for an important game is a big call – which might turn out to be the wrong one.
It’s possible McKenzie is sending a message to his players: no one’s spot is safe, and to be a Wallaby you must earn your place or be dropped.
If they beat Argentina twice and avoid ending bottom of the Rugby Championship, then McKenzie will be vindicated.
If not, then it truly will have been a dreadful summer for the Wallabies.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.