A hurting Wallabies team under the fresh captaincy of Ben Mowen will have too much firepower for the Pumas in Perth tonight, and should win by nine points or more.
The Pumas will be sniffing an opportunity and will go all out to upset the Wallabies. Expect emotions to be high and the Pumas to be messy rather than dominant at the breakdown.
Regardless of whether they enjoy some dominance or not, referee George Clancy is not a referee to favour dominant sides and will adjudicate according to specific criteria around ball release and players going off their feet – as evidenced by his punishing of Wales in their game against Italy last year.
The Pumas love going off the ball and also tend to isolate their runners.
The penalty count will be higher, the pace slowed to suite the Pumas’ preferences, but expect the Wallabies to win the penalty count by a good measure.
Christian Lealiifano’s boot will punish the Pumas, and heighten their frustration. If anything, expect the Pumas to collect at least one card during the match.
The referee; forwards James Slipper, Stephen Moore and Scott Fardy; alongside Ben Mowen’s committed leadership will at the very least give Nic White and Quade Cooper more space than the Wallabies enjoyed against South Africa and New Zealand.
White is good at clearing fast ball. If he concentrates on his strengths – fast ball and maintaining continuity – rather than trying to be a game changer in the vein of Will Genia, he will get fast ball to Cooper.
White is a more physical halfback, and his ability to withstand intimidation from the Pumas should stand the Wallabies in good stead.
Given more space by White, I would expect Cooper to make good use of the additional freedom.
While Gonzalo Tiesi and particularly the clever and experienced Felipe Contepomi are class acts, Cooper should be able to use the pace and angled running of Adam Ashley-Cooper and Lealiifano to break the gain line.
On the wings there isn’t much to compare between the teams. Nick Cummins and Horacio Agulla are both very strong, direct runners, while both James O’Connor and Juan Imhoff tend to be more creative – though O’Connor has a more intelligent boot, which should give him an edge out wide.
In reality, I don’t expect to see much of a contest between the wingers, or even fullbacks Israel Folau and Juan Martín Hernández. The Wallabies will give away fewer penalties than the Pumas, so Nicolás Sánchez will be largely limited to a linking role.
In brief then, a core of Wallabies forwards, and the way Clancy rules the breakdown, should give the Wallabies enough space for Quade Cooper to exercise his own creativity and unleash his centre pairing.
I expect the dynamic between Cooper and his centres (if he uses them) will decide this game.
There is one thing which could see it all go to custard for the Wallabies: their ability to hold the Pumas at scrum time.
They can look to limit mistakes to reduce the scrum count, but if the Pumas are dominant enough in the scrums they will put the Wallabies under pressure even in their own put-in.
The perfect storm for the Wallabies?
Clancy’s penchant for ignoring breakdown dominance; dry conditions; fewer errors; and White’s ability to get clear ball and ensure continuity.
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