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There is a healthy debate in Australian rugby about playing with style versus playing for results, but is it really important how the Wallabies win?
Rugby is a professional sport, and professional sport has one currency – winning. Secondary to that, but almost exclusively linked to winning, is profitablity.
In addition to that, you have the complication that national teams are not seen by their fans as professional sporting franchises, but an embodiment of the national character.
They have histories that, in Australia’s case, actually pre-date formal nationhood.
Spiro Zavos has repeatedly and eloquently articulated his views in detail regarding national rugby teams playing in a style that mirrors the broader national stereotypes.
Myths, history, heroes and legends are interwoven with teams like the Wallabies, Springboks and All Blacks.
Moving into the here and now, the ARU finds itself in a position of financial weakness, with inefficient development pathways, a new CEO, and a national team rapidly slipping in the world rankings.
The new CEO has publicly stated the national team should play attractive rugby that resonates with how Australians believe their sportsmen should approach the game.
So there is significant external pressure on the Wallabies to play attacking rugby, both from the weight of myth and history, and the commercial situation of the governing body.
Into this situation steps a new coach. He inherits a team that is tight, plays for one another, and has maintained a number two world ranking for most of the preceding four years.
However, it is a team that he and everybody else knows cannot make the leap to number one and will most probably struggle to maintain its current position in its current configuration.
Change and regeneration are required in the playing group.
And change is required regarding how the Wallabies approach the game, as the number of tries scored has dried up significantly in the past two seasons.
But what should they change to?
Put yourself in Ewen McKenzie’s shoes.
You are chosen because of your ability to coach attacking rugby at Super level. Your first three games are against the top two teams in the world.
You pick a team that begins to reflect the success of the Brumbies and Reds over the past three years in Super Rugby, thereby introducing a raft of newcomers to Test rugby.
You have a weak scrum, a strong lineout, and a reliable goalkicker.
Your forwards lack a dominant line-busting ball runner, or a pure fetcher, and your backs feature two smallish centres.
However, you have very strong tactical kickers at 10 (Matt Toomua) and 15 (Jesse Mogg).
Your first two opponents are the best in the world at converting turnovers into opportunist tries, have deadly goal kickers, strong punt kickers, and scrums capable of winning kickable penalties.
Your fundamental choice is this: do we place our emphasis on where we play the game, or how we play the game?
If you emphasise how we play the game, it’s obvious the outside influences will mean we play a running/passing game.
We would do this without a dominant breakdown-focused backrow, meaning that breakdown turnovers may increase and will happen within our own half.
We would do this without large centres or dominant forward ball carriers, making it difficult to consistently go forward.
And we would do this with a new team with limited combinations, increasing the chances of knock ons, and therefore scrums, and therefore kickable penalties conceded in our own half against stronger scrums.
If we emphasise where we play the game, we will use the kicking prowess of Mogg and Toomua, backed up by a strong lineout, to play the game in the opposition half.
If we make mistakes and concede turnovers, the opposition will have to work their way out of their own half to capitalise.
If the opposition makes mistakes, we have a great goal kicker, and our line-breaks will be less dependent on support play to get us over the line because we have less distance to travel.
If you were to make a dispassionate decision based on the above factors, which way would you go as a coach?
History shows McKenzie chose to play the running game in game one and was smashed. It’s hardly a surprise.
Wisely, he moved the balance more to a kicking game in game two and had a two tries to one loss.
Game three, against the Springboks, saw a move back to the passing/running game, and another record loss.
Finally, in game four, a very strong emphasis on kicking for field position saw his Wallabies record their first win under his coaching.
I asked Roar Expert Scott Allen, whether he thought the game plan in game four was only due to the wild weather.
He said he largely felt it was, but I disagree. I have no doubt the game plan would have been to kick anything in our own half no matter the weather, because that has been a winning strategy in Super Rugby and the Rugby Championship this year.
And I think it will be the game plan against the Boks this weekend.
I would love to see the Wallabies run and pass their way to victory from all over the paddock. We simply do not have the players, individually or collectively, to win playing this game plan against the top Test sides at this point in time.
And, given the choice, I would prefer to win.
Besides, I don’t think a strong kicking game plan equals boring rugby.
All of the top four NRL finals sides have very strong kicking games, and the champion Queensland State of Origin team kicks NSW to death series after series, creating pressure from repeat attacking sets and scoring tries inside the attacking 40m zone.
The NRL still produces breathtaking tries week in and week out. So the very best league teams know that winning football is played deep in the opposition half.
The All Blacks and Springboks know this too, and I am sure Ewen has now come to concede it.
While Ewen has denied it, it was surely the major reason why Nic White is playing halfback now.
With two years until the World Cup, this side has to get some wins in the short term to give them confidence and international credibility.
They need clear roles and a simple game plan that suits the current playing group to get this done.
In the meantime, they can work on developing a more sophisticated playing style as their experience grows.
I am not confident of a win this weekend at all, but if we play the game in the Springboks’ half, we will give ourselves the chance of an upset.
If we try to keep the ball in hand in our half, we will concede kickable scrum penalties, and tries from ruck turnovers, losing the game comfortably.
Let’s ‘play it smart’ by ‘dumbing it down’ this weekend.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.