Grand final weekend is upon us once more and while it might not feature the two teams the majority of us expected to be left standing, both teams have proven they deserve their chance at AFL glory this season.
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Alastair Clarkson’s Hawks and their high-octane attack, up against Ross Lyon’s Dockers and their swarming, pressure-filled defence.
It promises to be an absolute thriller.
We’ve broken down all the action scheduled for this weekend in our complete guide to the grand final with all the need-to-know details, viewing information, analysis and prediction.
The Roar will also be providing live commentary on the day.
Read on to see how the weekend ahead could unfold.
Date: Saturday, September 28, 3013
Time: 2:30pm AEST
TV: Live via Channel Seven
Radio: Triple M, 3AW, SEN, ABC, ABC Grandstand (depending on location)
Recent form: Hawthorn
Hawthorn finished the season in fine style – winning the minor premiership – and proved their finals credentials with a stirring victory over defending premiers the Sydney Swans to book a spot in the semi-finals.
The Hawks then followed that up with a narrow victory over Geelong last week to break the ‘Kennett Curse’, as they came from behind to record a five-point win.
Recent form: Fremantle
Fremantle came into the finals this year somewhat under the radar of the big three (Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney), but soon dispelled any questions about their potency with a sensational victory over the Cats at Simonds Stadium.
Playing their first home semi-final in history, the Dockers then showed just how dominant they can be against one of the best teams in the league, smashing the Sydney Swans in a midfield masterclass to book their spot in the club’s first ever grand final.
Last five meetings
R4, 2013: Hawthorn 18.10 (118) def. Fremantle 11.10 (76)
R8, 2012: Hawthorn 17.17 (119) def. Fremantle 9.9 (63)
R19, 2011: Hawthorn 13.17 (95) def. Fremantle 6.8 (44)
R11, 2011: Hawthorn 17.9 (111) def. Fremantle 13.11 (89)
2EF, 2010: Fremantle 14.10 (94) def. Hawthorn 8.16 (94)
Key match-up: Sam Mitchell (HAW) versus Ryan Crowley (FRE)
With Hawthorn suffering a number of injuries to key players this season, Mitchell has again proved his importance to the club with a slew of stirring performances – including incredible night last week against Geelong.
The defender-turned-midfielder picked up 38 disposals and 11 clearances against the Cats, and will be looking for a big performance in this one.
However, if any man is capable of shutting down the red-hot Mitchell, it’s Crowley, who has done superb tagging jobs over the finals series so far on Steve Johnson and Kieran Jack respectively.
If Crowley can keep Mitchell quiet early in this one, the Dockers could be primed to launch one of the most thrilling upsets in grand final history.
Three facts to consider
1. Overall, Hawthorn holds a 20-7 head-to-head advantage over the Dockers.
2. There are 23 Hawks players listed who have played in a grand final before, but only two Dockers players have grand final experience (Zac Dawson at St Kilda and Danyle Pearce at Port Adelaide).
3. The last five times that the best attack in the league has played the best defence in the league in a grand final, the defence has won (1992, 1994, 1997, 1998, 2012).
Prediction
With all the emotion and pressure on grand final day, this one will remain a pretty tight affair.
The Hawks have been the best attacking team all year and will be the deserved favourites, but there’s something about the Dockers.
Fremantle were ultra-impressive against the Swans last week and if they can win the midfield battle on Saturday, they stand a huge chance at pulling off an upset.
I’ve underestimated the boys from the west in both their finals games this year (and have been proven wrong both times), and while it might not be the natural prediction, they might just get up here.
They don’t have any expectations on them – being the outsiders and playing in their first grand final – and will be under far less pressure than the Hawks.
It’ll be a thriller and, just maybe, we might see an upset this weekend.
Dockers by two points.
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