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Will Solzhenitsyn be able to equal Umrum’s 13-year record and win consecutive Toorak Handicaps? Join us from 4.30pm AEDT for a preview, live blog and post-race analysis of the 2013 Toorak Handicap.
The Toorak Handicap is a Group 1 open handicap held over 1600m. It is regarded as the second best mile handicap event on the Victorian racing calendar behind the Group 1 Emirates Stakes.
A number of recent quality milers have taken out this event including, More Joyous, King Mufhasa and one of my favourites Divine Madonna back in 2007.
When looking back at the history of the race it seems the race suits those horses down in the weights, although more recently the likes of More Joyous and King Mufhasa have won the race carrying a hefty 58kg’s.
Solzhenitsyn currently heads the betting at $5 ahead of Bass Strait, Linton and Speediness at $7. The Tony McEvoy 5yo is the only other horse under double figure odds at around the $9 mark.
For a 17 horse field there is not a great deal of speed in the race with only Budriguez and Dany The Fox looking to lead from their wide draws.
From barrier seven Solzhenitsyn looks to sit handy and could get the box seat, while we could see a change of tactics with December Draw who has drawn wide and seemed to have no turn of foot when he sat midfield last start.
When Solzhenitsyn won this race last year he carried only 52kg’s, he has to carry an extra 6kg here but his opposition is slightly inferior.
His run in the Rupert Clark Stakes was great, almost identical to his lead run in the same event last year. He has drawn nicely in barrier seven and is going to be difficult to beat.
Stradbroke handicap winner Linton is also at the top of the weights and is currently equal second favourite.
His run in the Rupert Clark was enormous, sat three wide throughout and still kept fighting to the line to finish fifth. Not sure what the tactics are going to be with him from barrier 2 but he will definitely be somewhere in the finish.
Speediness has always had the potential to be a Group 1 winner and his two runs so far this prep have shown he is ready to win today.
In both races he sat almost last before unleashing his devastating turn of foot to win the Bobbie Lewis and finished 4th in the Rupert Clarke. Craig Williams is suspended and is replaced by booming young jockey James McDonald which will be no disadvantage.
The best roughie in the race is the Jarrod McLean trained Blackie. He produced fantastic sectionals from last in the Bobbie Lewis behind Speediness before winning at Mooney Valley over 1500m defeating Sertorius and Lord of Brazil. Good each-way value.
Brad Durrant’s tips
1. Speediness
2. Solzhenitsyn
3. Blackie
4. Linton
Justin Cinque’s tips
1. Ferlax
2. Mouro
3. Solzhenitsyn
4. Bass Strait
Andrew Hawkins’ tips
1. Trevieres
2. Bass Strait
3. Solzhenitsyn
4. Mutual Trust
Cameron Rose’s tips
1. Speediness
2. Linton
3. Solzhenitsyn
4. Ferlax
Alfred Chan’s tips
1. Trevieres
2. Bass Strait
3. Mouro
4. Linton
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After week eight
Alfred Chan: 31
Justin Cinque: 30
Cameron Rose: 29
Andrew Hawkins: 27
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