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2013 Caulfield Cup: Full preview, tips - and a roughie

18th October, 2013
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Morphetville takes centre stage this weekend. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
18th October, 2013
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The first of the big majors, the Caulfield Cup, has finally arrived. It will be the last race of a meaty ten-race card.

It looks a race of two tiers, with seven or eight main chances, followed by a very solid lot of stayers who are all capable of running big races, but probably without a legitimate winning hope.

Let’s have a look at each horse individually.

1. Manighar
The best weight-for-age 2000m – 2400m horse in the country in the autumn of 2012, but hasn’t produced that sort of form since. Respectable runs in the Makybe Diva and Underwood, but we needed to see more than that for him to be a chance in this carrying 58kg’s.

2. Dandino
Has form around the likes of Sea Moon, Reliable Man and My Quest For Peace of the horses we’ve seen in this country, plus he ties in okay with Fiorente through a horse called Joshua Tree which has raced against of a lot of internationals that come to Australia.

Wide barrier may not be an issue, as overseas horses often are happy to roll along wide, and Craig Williams will ensure a perfect ride.

3. Ethiopia
Trainer Pat Carey enjoys light preparations with this horse, so we don’t see as much of him as we’d like. Mixes up his racing pattern too, so it’s hard to get a proper line on him, but based on what we’ve seen recently, he’s poorly weighted in this field.

Hard to make a genuine case, but his fourth in the last year’s Cox Plate lingers in the memory.

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4. Waldpark
Has run okay in all three runs in this country without threatening to win, and it’s hard to see him finally saluting here.

Does drop six kilograms from his respectable Benalla Cup run, but that’s not exactly the lead-up race we think of when finding a potential Caulfield Cup winner.

5. Glencadam Gold
Failed in this race last year as favourite, and hasn’t really been the same horse since.

Showed signs of his best in the Hill Stakes two starts back, but that was against the second tier Sydney horses who were well handled by Hawkspur previously.

Not convinced he has the class it takes to win this event these days.

6. Mr Moet
Another who has run just okay in the key lead-up races without showing enough to demand inclusion in the winning chances here.

Has a touch of class, but we haven’t seen quite enough of it away from his home state of Western Australia.

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Needed to finish closer than five lengths behind Mourinho in the JRA Cup to not be called a disappointment.

7. Fawkner
The first of the live chances, he’s been building beautifully with three very good runs this campaign, each more impressive than the last, culminating with a third in the Turnbull – always a key lead-up race to the Caulfield Cup.

He doesn’t come without his queries though, having never raced further than 2000m, and he’s rarely seen outside the bigger Flemington and Randwick tracks.

Three times in the last two years he’s been beaten favourite racing at the tighter Moonee Valley, Caulfield and Rosehill.

8. Jet Away
Has been a key player in Caulfield Cup markets from the outset, and despite having a delayed campaign and thus only seen once under race conditions this spring, he remains a major player.

His return in the Turnbull was very good, but he does meet Hawkspur 1.5kilograms worse for finishing a length behind him in that race.

Sure to be right there in the finish.

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9. Kelinni
Usually a very honest, consistent type, but ran last in the Craven Plate last start after suffering a set-back in the weeks prior.

His run in the Chelmsford before that was a cracker, much better than it looked on paper. Despite that, it’s hard to see him figuring. Not the worst bolter though.

10. Moriarty
Couldn’t go with Hawkspur in the Chelmsford, but wasn’t alone there, and subsequently won the Hill Stakes and ran very well in the Metrop.

Has built an excellent career since arriving in this country, and improves with every campaign.

Waller will have him ready to fire – he’s one of (if not the best) roughie in the race.

11. My Quest For Peace
His fifth in last year’s Caulfield Cup was his first run in this country, and also probably his best, as he hasn’t gotten any closer to victory since then, albeit racing in several unsuitable races.

This is his distance, and he does love a good track though. A deserved roughie, but one with place claims.

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12. Hawkspur
The deserving favourite and key runner in the race.

He brings together the best of the Sydney and Melbourne form, having won at WFA at Randwick, and then producing the run of the race in the Turnbull at Flemington, a fast-finishing fifth coming from near last despite getting stopped in his tracks several times along the way.

The form behind him over the Queensland winter continues to stand up, and the only query is a lack of exposure to Caulfield.

Barrier 16, probably jumping from 14, shouldn’t be an issue. The one to beat.

13. Julienas
Lightly raced for a seven year old, there won’t be a fitter horse in the race, and probably not one in better form either, albeit at an inferior level.

A stayer in form is a tough nut to crack, as is any Gai Waterhouse runner. He’ll roll forward and give them something to catch when he leads around the turn. Good roughie.

14. Mr O’Ceirin
A solid Group 3 stayer, especially on ground with the cut out of it, he’s not going to be quite up to this level, as we saw in the Turnbull, let alone on a firm track.

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With a forecast of 27 degrees, the track will surely be rock hard by race 10, and he might as well stay in the shade of his stable. His main job is to go forward from a wide gate and ensure a genuine tempo.

15. Silent Achiever
The Kiwi mare is five from nine at home, but has only registered one win from eleven Australian starts.

Second in the BMW earlier this year confirms her 2400m credentials, and her Turnbull run was an eye-catcher indeed.

She meets Hawkspur 1kg worse from the race though, and he came from behind her to finish in front, despite him stopping and starting several times while she had full momentum.

She’s drawn to get the absolute dream run, but funnily enough every one of her best races has been when she’s been ridden completely cold.

16. Royal Descent
It’s a pity we didn’t get to see her best in the Turnbull to really line her up against the other contenders, but she was flying in her three Sydney runs, ultra-impressive in each one.

She’s a bit under the odds for mine as second favourite, but is one of the clear and present dangers to stablemate Hawkspur.

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17. Tuscan Fire
Won his place in the field through his dominant Mornington Cup win back in February.

He started this campaign with a win at 100-1, but has finished further and further from the winner at each start since.

It’s great for the connections to have a runner in the Caulfield Cup.

18. Dear Demi
After having what seemed like sixty or seventy runs as a three year old, Dear Demi has returned very well into her four year old year with three pleasing runs in the lead up to this.

Her best performance was a third in the Underwood Stakes, followed by a decent run in the Turnbull. I’m not sure she can turn the tables on all of her rivals from that race.

Forgotten Voice (first emergency)
His win over Lost in the Moment two months ago suggests he can run a nice fifth or sixth if he sneaks into the field. Hearing a bit of spruik about him, so keep an eye on him in the Geelong Cup.

Sneak a Peak (second emergency)
Running solidly up in Sydney, and getting closer to a win if he can find his right race. Maybe the Moonee Valley Cup. Eighth in this last year, and can repeat that if he gets in.

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Oasis Bloom (third emergency)
No chance of getting in, but her seconds to Sea Moon and Atlantic Jewel this prep say she’d be competitive with only 51.5kg’s on her back.

After looking at the race over and over during the last few days, it’s hard not to keep coming back to Hawkspur.

The Turnbull form is usually the strongest, he was the run of the race by a long, long way, and he meets every rival better at the weights.

He could be anything, and it won’t surprise to see him win by two or three lengths.

Dandino is his biggest danger, especially with the good recent record of internationals and jockey Craig Williams in the race.

Other big chances are Silent Achiever, Jet Away, Fawkner and Royal Descent.

Best roughie is probably Moriarty.

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Selections
1.Hawkspur 2.Dandino 3.Jet Away 4.Fawkner

Looking for something from one of the other races, Bring Something must be a massive chance at around $7 in the Norman Robinson.

He’s coming off clearly the best run in clearly the best lead-up race, the Stutt Stakes.

First and second from it both filled the placings behind Long John in the Caulfield Guineas, so the form is well and truly franked.

It’s an exciting time of the year, and the next month provides the best racing that Australia has to offer.

What a day we’ve got to kick it off, and what a Caulfield Cup it should be. I reckon we’ll see the arrival of a new star.

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