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The current AFL broadcast rights deal runs from 2012-2016, so early 2014 will see the AFL begin to look in earnest at the next TV deal.
The last deal struck in 2011 was lucrative, partly because:
• the number of TV options is so great these days and the audiences so fractured that big TV sporting events are the only events that attract big audiences which are attractive for advertisers and TV stations;
• the AFL is a national competition across three time zones with multiple games in every State and Territory capital;
• the AFL has added an extra game, boasting nine games per round with four free-to-air and five exclusively Pay TV;
• Channel 7 gets a near guaranteed blockbuster every Friday night; and
• Pay TV show all games in High Definition as distinct from SD on free-to-air.
It begs the question about what the AFL can offer next time that will add to the next TV rights deal. Perhaps it will be more offerings in the pay-per-game area, or more multimedia/internet/NBN access.
There appear to be fewer options on the new team front as the two expansion teams are bedded down and Pay-TV subscriptions stubbornly plateau.
Is this a problem for Gill McLachlan to solve if he takes over from Andrew Demetriou in 2014 after the expiration of the alleged “Kirribilli succession agreement” they signed in 2012?
For the next TV deal in 2022 onwards, the conference system I outline below is a possibility to get TV networks and other content providers interested.
It is unashamedly borrowed from US Major League Baseball, NFL, NBA, NHL and Super Rugby, and in some regards is already being used in the NEAFL competition in the northern states.
This scenario is based upon State Governments being the beneficiaries of AFL fans’ willingness to travel, and therefore more State Government assistance being offered to the AFL.
There will be four conferences of five teams each. Teams play each other once (19 games) and they play an extra game against their intra-conference teams to get 23 games.
The top two in each conference get in the finals meaning nationwide interest.
Conference A (West)
West Coast Eagles
Fremantle Dockers
Adelaide Crows
Port Adelaide Power
Third Perth team
Conference B (South A)
Five Victorian teams
Conference C (South B)
Four Victorian teams
Tasmanian team
Conference D (North)
Brisbane Lions
Gold Coast Suns
Sydney Swans
GWS Giants
One Victorian/Tasmanian team that changes each year (decided by ballot, but every club gets a turn in an 11-year rotation)
South Conferences
The makeup of the South conferences requires work.
The 10 Victorian teams would be split between the conferences by previous year results so that:
(a) There would be a difficult conference with all the top teams which would make blockbusters a certainty (if you can rely on previous years form flowing through to the next year) and
(b) a weaker conference which would have a greater chance for weaker clubs getting to the finals.
The risk is that a team does well in the weaker conference one year and gets promoted to the top conference the next year, yet they may not deserve the promotion.
We are only talking about four easier games than four harder games out of 23 to decide ladder positions, so teams will have to prove their worth against good opponents in either conference.
Alternatively the teams would be split by Victorian/Tasmanian finishing order – ie; 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 in one conference and the even numbers in the other conference (bearing in mind that one Victorian/Tasmanian club would play in the North conference for a year).
For the South Conferences, the Tasmanian Government (a significant backer of any Tasmanian team, one assumes) would be happy as all their Victorian clubs supporters would travel across the Strait for more games.
There would still be blockbusters under either system – Carlton and Collingwood would play each other at least once, for example – but they wouldn’t necessarily be in the same conference every year.
Expatriates and State Government tourist boards will be thrilled. For example, Essendon supporters get the opportunity to travel to Sydney every year (either GWS or Swans home game) and Bombers supporters in Sydney get to see their team at least once a year.
The Victorian clubs get to play each other more often, which means less low drawing interstate clubs playing in Melbourne.
On complaints that it is a return to ‘the VFL and the rest’, four conferences dilutes that criticism to some extent and gets away from the alternative – two conferences split into Victorian and the Rest.
The beauty of the four conference system is that the team that’s lying fifth in their conference during the season is closer to the finals than at 20th in an eight-team finals scenario, so fans should be interested longer into the season.
Fans of those teams that don’t make the finals may follow the teams from their conference that do make the finals (Power fans following the Crows?).
It may also add spice to the draft as clubs may be reluctant to trade players to teams in their own conference – less so in the southern conferences, where the makeup of your conference is unknown from year to year.
The main point is that it guarantees teams from all over Australia playing in the finals, if only for one week.
There are some issues though.
Domination in a conference
There will be a problem if the West Coast Eagles (or any team in any Conference) dominate the West, although draft and free agency should help.
North Conference
The Victorian/Tasmanian team that has to play in the North conference may feel aggrieved that it is out of the main action, but they would still get to play nine games against other Victorian/Tasmanian teams and five against teams from the West.
It is for one year only after all, and some may crave for that northern exposure.
That Victorian club may play two away games in two weeks to maximise the chances of a northern winter holiday – again getting more Queensland and New South Wales Government assistance for AFL – and the North conference may maximise their exposure for sponsors in northern markets, which are home to 60 percent of Australia’s population.
South Conference B
If this conference were made up of the weaker teams for the previous year, then they would get to play eight games against similarly weak opponents (which happens to some extent now) but 15 against the other teams, or 65 percent of games.
Teams 1 and 2 would end up in the finals, however, and might be unworthy. Perhaps the South A conference could get three finalists and the B conference one finalist to offset the A conference playing top teams.
This may mean that the option of the South conferences being based on Vic/Tas seeding is better, but that would mean less blockbusters during the season. No system is the magic bullet.
People become conference-centric
A complaint in the US is that people only follow their regional conference and don’t follow other regions.
The Super Rugby have both an overall competition table and regional tables to overcome this and in the US, because of midweek games, people in the East tend to ignore Western results because they occur after they go to bed.
The AFL, however, is played over the afternoons and early evenings in the east and as there are no late games in the west, 11.15pm Friday is the latest finish in the wast.
Tanking and priority picks
If the South conferences are based on previous wins, then there maybe a incentive for top division teams who are struggling at the end of the season to tank to get into the bottom division for the following year.
Still, the top division may be where the big games, sponsors and home crowds are. And as we found with Melbourne, while the club may wish to ‘play within themselves’, young and old players in a struggling club are playing for careers and contracts so lack the incentive to ‘coast’.
Priority picks would still be based upon number of wins, but obviously South Conference A strugglers would be ineligible as the AFL would undoubtedly take into account performances over several years.
The conference system isn’t perfect, but to maximise regional interest, prolong teams’ final aspirations longer in the season and to maximise advertiser interest I think this is a possibility.
The mini bust in Western Australia perhaps means the third WA team is further away than two years ago, but certainly this is a way to get Tasmania into the AFL.
This format means that the State Government could invest in the team legitimately to make sure Victorian club fans travelled to Tasmania for a game and holiday during the low Tasmanian tourist season, rather than Hawks and North playing Perth or northern teams with fewer flying supporters.
Whether the team is based in Launceston or Hobart is another story…
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