The Crown Oaks holds pride of place as the feature race on the third day of the Flemington spring carnival, but in truth, the race-winner seldom goes on to scale any great racing heights.
You can make the case that last year’s winner, Dear Demi, has already gone on to become a better race-mare than any Oaks winner we’ve seen in years.
The consensus is that this year’s field is a little on the thin side, and history tells us that it’s a favourites race – nine of the last ten winners have started at $5 or less, with most of those having either won the Wakeful Stakes, or dropping back from a Group 1 against the older mares.
Let’s look at each runner individually to see if we can find the winner.
1. May’s Dream
This filly was deposed as Oaks favourite after Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes, for while she still ran a very nice trial for the race, she didn’t have the class to go with the winner, Kirramosa.
Out of She’s Archie, most famous for running second to Makybe Diva in her first Melbourne Cup, staying the distance shouldn’t be a problem, and she has the weight of statistical history on her side – eight of the last ten winners have placed in the Thousand Guineas on their way to the Oaks, and she is the only one in this race to lay claim to this, when she gave Guelph a brief fright in this year’s edition.
I would like to have seen her savage the line a bit better than she did in the Wakeful though.
2. Arabian Gold
Another filly with Guelph form, she hasn’t put in a bad run this prep, and it’s doubtful she’ll do so here either.
She’s run well in both Sydney and Melbourne this campaign, and has the benefit of two 2000m runs as grounding for the 2500m of a Crown Oaks. Her jockey, Hugh Bowman, could well be the best rider of stayers in the land.
Her problem is that the quinella from the Wakeful both sat behind her in the run and ended up in front on the line, and she also couldn’t catch third place-getter Solicit, even though she was entitled to do so.
It’s hard to see her turning the tables on all three.
3. Kirramosa
The deserved Oaks favourite after her last-to-first win in the Wakeful on Saturday, defeating almost all of her main rivals while doing so.
Taking the win at face value, it’s going to be a very tough ask for any of them to turn the tables.
If we’re looking for queries on her, she might just not quite extend as well on a firm track as one with the cut out of it, and her sire was Alamosa, a miler, but she’s the one to beat.
4. Gypsy Diamond
Another honest filly, also coming out of the Wakeful, she made as much ground in the straight as any runner behind Kirramosa.
She has found herself a few lengths shy of the A-graders this prep, and if there are doubts about Alamosa as a sire, Gypsy Diamond is by a sprinter who never won beyond 1200m.
I’m not sure she’ll go the distance and even if she does, I expect she’ll be finding one or two better at doing it.
5. Solicit
Another horse to finish behind Kirramosa in the Wakeful, this filly is as tough and honest as any of them, preferring to race up on the speed and grind her way to the line Polanski-style.
She looked gone a few times on Saturday, but the way she found again in the shadows of the post was pleasing for those wanting to see her get 2500m.
She is yet to run worse than third this campaign, and has already claimed the scalps of some nice horses in her sprint wins.
She’ll definitely be in front at some point in the straight, and it won’t surprise if she can defy them all.
6. Quayside
The horse with the most unusual prep in the race, she’s only raced once beyond 1400m, and is yet to have a start in Melbourne.
You’ll have to go back many years to find a horse that either part true, let alone both.
She certainly won her last start, in very restricted grade, like a horse that appreciated the step up in distance, but she’s a tough one to get too keen on.
7. Every Faith
The rank outsider of the field, she hasn’t been running poorly this campaign, just a level or two below the horses she’ll be taking on in this race.
She may end up making a nice mare over time, but it will be a surprise if she’s figuring in the finish.
8. Zanbagh
This filly is the second favourite for the race, despite only coming off wins at maiden and 0-64 level, albeit against older horses.
Her last win was by five lengths over 2000m, but it must be noted that it was on a heavy track against poor horses, so it’s hard to read too much into it.
The horse she beat into second proceeded to run last at its next start.
The punters and bookies must be thinking that Kirramosa’s Wakeful win was so strong that nothing from the race can beat her, so the only way is to look at other formlines.
I don’t think so. She’ll be around $5, but I couldn’t back her at 20s.
9. Melaleuca
Another who has proven to be not quite up to the level, either behind Arabian Gold in the Ethereal or Kirramosa in the Wakeful, although she did make some okay ground in the former.
Her only win has been on a heavy track, and she’s another sired by a sprinter, so there are enough question marks to make us think she won’t be having an impact.
10. Tear Gas
The most lightly raced horse in the field has won a tick under $10,000 in prizemoney, but she can triple that by finishing seventh or eighth in this ten horse field, and that might be the best she can hope for.
Rarely does Joel Selwood have as physical an outing as she had in the Wakeful, so the case can be made that she should have finished much closer, but that sort of battering could take its toll on a filly with so few starts.
Selections: 1. Solicit 2. Kirramosa 3. May’s Dream 4. Arabian Gold
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