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Much is made about the magic of the FA Cup; the romanticism of how a lowly team from Chelmsford can go up against the might of Manchester United in a game people will talk about for years.
But this doesn’t happen in rugby, for two reasons.
For starters, lowly teams like Senegal (up to 41st in the world) never get to play any of the tier one nations. When I say never, I mean never.
Australia have only ever played 20 different countries in their history, which means teams as highly ranked as Georgia (16th) are unbeaten against the Wallabies.
The IRB would go a long way to developing the sport around the world with weakened provincial teams playing against some of the developing nations. But that’s a thought for another day.
The point of this article is to refer you to the fact that of the nations that do play each other, the standard is so similar that a team ranked seventh in the world can beat a team ranked third and no one would consider that a shock.
Aside from New Zealand, and maybe South Africa, teams from England in third all the way down to Wales in seventh can beat each other.
Each one of Wales, England, Ireland, Australia and France will feel that they are good enough to be named third best in the world, and that they are the best chance of beating South Africa and maybe upsetting New Zealand.
Which brings us to this weekend’s game – Ireland v Australia.
Ireland are ranked sixth in the world, to Australia’s fourth. Recent history between the teams is close, with two wins to each side in the last five games and a draw.
Australia haven’t beaten Ireland in Dublin since 2005, with Gordon D’Arcy, Rory Best, Tommy Bowe and Tatafu Polotau-Nau the only survivors from that contest with a chance of playing at the weekend.
The most recent game – a 15-6 win to Ireland in the Rugby World Cup 2011 – counted as an upset, but would a victory for Ireland this weekend also be treated as one?
I would argue it isn’t. Australia’s record in Dublin isn’t great, and their 2013 record is dreadful.
Ewen McKenzie has brought a bit of spark back into the Wallabies with 18 tries in their last four games, although if you take out the two seven-try drubbings, they’ve only scored 13 tries in their 10 other games in 2013.
Ireland’s record in 2013 isn’t great either, with a dismal Six Nations all the way back in February/ March ending Declan Kidney’s reign.
A lot of time has passed since then. The leaders among the Irish squad were in Australia, where Sean O’Brien, Paul O’Connell, Jonny Sexton, Conor Murray, Tommy Bowe, Brian O’Driscoll and Jamie Heaslip all played a part in a victorious Lions Test series.
Meanwhile, Peter O’Mahony, Fergus McFadden, Ian Madigan, Paddy Jackson, Mike Ross, Devin Toner and Mike McCarthy played parts in Ireland’s tour of the US and Canada.
Joe Schmidt has brought a freshness to the squad, and there was an air of calmness as they went about their business against Samoa, with no hang-ups on form or worries about the pressures to win.
If the papers are to be believed, Ireland will target the Wallaby lineout and scrum, and the battle of the breakdown will be fierce.
For years Ireland haven’t had a “genuine open-side”, instead using the breakdown talents of Cian Healy, Rory Best, Paul O’Connell, Jamie Heaslip and Brian O’Driscoll. Michael Hooper will have a lot on his plate.
Australian media expects Ireland to use the ‘choke’ tackle that served them well in 2011 to go after the Wallabies in the scrum time and again. While this will no doubt be a tactic, I suspect that they will use another alternative style of tackling to get as many offloads as possible.
Ireland have been trying the chop tackle technique against Samoa; so much so that attentive listeners to the referee’s microphone on Saturday could hear shouts encouraging them to tackle low so the next man in could get over the ball quickly.
This helped to win 12 turnovers in open play, and a few other penalties for holding on.
Some Irish players will be making their first appearances against Australia – namely 6’10” Devin Toner or Mike McCarthy in the second row, Fergus McFadden the versatile winger who never stops working and Jack McGrath.
McGrath got man of the match in his debut last week. When he comes on for Cian Healy, Australia will be faced with a young prop who can scrummage well, is a powerful runner and effective breakdown worker.
There’s a case to be made to bring Luke Marshall into the 12 position over Gordon D’Arcy. If he plays, Australia will see a second five-eighth with a complete set of skills.
His upbringing from flyhalf has honed his distribution, playmaking and kicking skills, while his size makes him a solid defender and willing runner who makes great lines.
While Australia don’t have to worry about Stephen Ferris this week, they will have to face Peter O’Mahony, the current Munster captain.
A fiery character, O’Mahony was outstanding last week, leading the Irish charge in the opening half with some early turnovers, and uplifting carries.
He is a big game player who leads from the front, and if he keeps his emotions in check, Genia will have a similarly tough game to 2011.
The weather is set for cloudy with a good chance for rain, which sets up an intriguing Test match. While Ireland wouldn’t lose too much confidence with a loss, a win wouldn’t be classed as an upset.
Bring on the Aussies.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.