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Evaluating McKenzie's first year as Wallabies coach

Roar Guru
1st December, 2013
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Is big Ewen McKenzie to blame for the Wallabies Bledisloe failure? (Image: AFP)
Roar Guru
1st December, 2013
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2118 Reads

7/10. That’s my score for Ewen McKenzie in his first year as coach of the Wallabies.

This may seem quite generous for a coach with a 50% record and no wins against higher ranked teams, but if we put a few things into context, I think this score is justified.

All Blacks
Let’s face it, we were never going to beat them this year and hindsight only confirms this.

The current All Blacks team is one of the greatest, if not the greatest, in a history of great teams. The fortitude they’ve shown to remain unbeaten in 2013 is nothing short of remarkable.

They have been in a class of their own this year with daylight between them and a resurgent Springboks outfit, who rightfully own second spot in world rankings by a significant margin.

I’ll admit that I was on the bandwagon of optimists following Ewen McKenzie’s appointment, confident that we’d perform like we did in Bledisloe three as opposed to Bledisloe one and two.

Reality then stepped in and my hopes were hung, drawn and quartered with swift precision.

Two weeks is just not enough for any coach to step in and resurrect the team from a humiliating loss to the Lions – not enough time to pick a squad, get to know unfamiliar players, develop entirely new game plans, work out who is best to execute those plans and prepare for the even bigger challenge of facing the All Blacks in back to back Tests.

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Particularly this All Blacks side.

Springboks
Following Robbie Deans’ largely successful record against the Springboks, and the fact that we hadn’t lost to South Africa in Brisbane since 1971, expectations falsely surged before a sharp fall after the 26-point thumping at Suncorp.

That hurt.

But let’s put this into context. This was not the South Africa we faced under the senile clown that is Peter DeVilliers, this is Heyneke Meyer’s Springboks and they are good.

Very good.

Let’s not forget that even under Deans’ watch (the man who apparently knew how to beat the Springboks regularly), Meyer’s Springboks trounced the Wallabies by 23 points in only their second attempt.

While they’re not quite in the All Blacks’ league, in my view the Springboks were better than the Lions and would’ve probably beaten them 2-1 while the All Blacks would’ve cleaned them up 3-0.

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The point here is that the All Blacks and Springboks are currently exceptional teams (All Blacks being exceptionally exceptional!).

Given the very short time that McKenzie has been in charge, his results against these teams should not be considered a failure.

The reality for Australia is that we cannot “expect” to beat these teams, but that’s not to say that we cannot or should not do so in the future, just that we need to be realistic about our position in the pecking order at this point.

Argentina, England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales
This is where things start looking a little better.

Aside from the controversial blip against England (who were ranked above us at the time), we’ve comfortably knocked over all lower ranked teams and put together a four-game winning streak going into 2014.

If nothing else, this at least proves the Wallabies were not in decline or suddenly inferior to these lower ranked teams as claimed by many Roarers. You know who you are. And you were wrong.

On the contrary, this is the first time in at least 10 years that we’ve managed to keep a clean sheet against all lower ranked teams in a calendar year. Food for thought.

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Team culture and selections
Results aside, there are other factors that need to be considered when evaluating McKenzie’s first year in the top job.

First, let’s look at selections. On the whole, I think McKenzie has done well here.

The backline looks threatening in attack and solid in defence. Remarkable considering two of our most talented attacking players in recent times (James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale) have been kicked out of the team.

The forwards still need some work but have improved significantly since the start of the season. My only gripe is McKenzie’s continual selection of Ben Alexander.

What he’s thinking here is beyond me.

This alone almost warrants dropping McKenzie’s rating to 6/10 but I’m in a good mood after the Wales game so he gets the benefit of the doubt (for now).

My preference would have been to bring Scott Sio on this tour and give him the opportunity to develop his game against the Northern Hemisphere packs.

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Secondly, let’s look at the Wallabies’ culture. This can be a hard one to assess as I can’t claim to know what’s really going on in camp Wallaby.

McKenzie’s public damnation of the “Dublin six” was criticised by some but praised by the vast majority of supporters, ex-players and coaches alike.

Nevertheless, some unsavoury rumours have surfaced since then, and if there is any truth in them, it could easily undo all the good work done to date.

Having said that, it would appear team culture is as strong as ever based on what we saw against Wales. This was full throttle rugby played at breakneck pace.

It was a level of intensity that simply could not be reached by a team that wasn’t fully committed to each other and their coach. On that basis, I’d cautiously dismiss the rumours and suggest that the core of this team is in a good place, and the Wallaby’s environment is far from “toxic”.

Looking forward to 2014
The important thing here is not to get too carried away. McKenzie still hasn’t won a game against New Zealand or South Africa, and it would be naïve to assume we’ve closed the gap enough to beat them.

What we can and should expect is further improvement. But be patient fellow Wallaby supporters, this may not translate into wins immediately as New Zealand and South Africa will field an equally strong All Blacks and even stronger Springboks side to what we’ve seen this year.

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McKenzie has truly faced a baptism of fire, and it won’t get any easier next year, but my confidence in his ability to meet the challenge is growing.

My prediction for next year: 2/3 wins against France in the June internationals, 3/6 Rugby Championship games, a win in the third Bledisloe, and 4/5 on the EOYT.

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