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While the Rose Bowl might get all the attention leading up to New Years Day, it is not the only BCS Bowl being played on Wednesday.
The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl will take place on Wednesday night between the University of Central Florida (UCF) Scarlet Knights and Baylor Bears.
The Fiesta Bowl may not have the pomp and ceremony of the Rose Bowl but it is always an exciting, free flowing affair and this year will be no different with Baylor’s high powered offense taking on the 11-1 Scarlet Knights.
Baylor’s offense seemed to be an unstoppable force until Oklahoma shut them out in their tenth game of the season.
Their offense is ranked number one in the nation, per NCAA.org, proving too strong for all bar Oklahoma State and every team apart from Oklahoma State has struggled to slow them down.
Teams have struggled to slow Baylor down because the Bears have an accurate quarterback in Bryce Petty who is able to exploit the man coverage which comes with running a unique spread offense.
The Bears regularly spread the field so wide that all four receivers are standing on or outside the numbers.
Not only does this lead to man coverage in pass defence, but it spreads the linebackers and safeties which opens up running lanes for running backs Lache Seastrunk and Shock Linwood, as well as quarterback Bryce Petty.
This then creates a vicious cycle for opposing defences, do they fill the box and stop the run, leaving four defensive backs in man coverage or do they help the defensive backs in pass defence and risk Baylor running right through the middle?
So far, Oklahoma State is the only team to have found a suitable solution. UCF must take note of the Cowboys strategy and try to replicate it.
The cowboys plan started from the first whistle.
By coming out of the gates quickly and shutting down the Bears in the first quarter, Oklahoma State forced the Bears into panic mode, Baylor abandoned the run on first down and repeatedly attempted the home run pass rather than trying for small gains in a long drive.
Throughout the match, Oklahoma State generally kept their safeties back in deep zone coverage, had the two cornerbacks playing man and matching the linebackers with any remaining receivers.
If this meant two linebackers were drawn out of the tackle box to play man defence, these linebackers would often cheat a little bit by staying a few yards inside the receiver in order to allow them to close in on the running back if the Bears ran it.
While this style of defence did allow for 5-6 yard runs it prevented the big passing play.
If the Scarlet Knights want to win on Wednesday night, a similar style of defence should be adopted, safety help provided to linebackers and cornerbacks in man coverage and linebackers cheating their man to help stop the run.
UCF is not a bad defensive team by any means, the 19th ranked defence in the nation; however it will be a tall order to shut down the Bears offense.
While the Baylor offense has received all the accolades throughout the season, the Bears’ defence has also been pretty stout throughout the year. They are the 17th best defence in the nation and regularly held teams to under 20.
However the Scarlet Knights are no slouches on offense, led by quarterback Blake Bortles and his 3280 yards and 163.3 quarterback rating and running back Storm Johnson’s 1015 yards. UCF uses a much more conventional offense than the Bears but it has been effective throughout the season.
The team relies on a strong rushing attack laying the platform for Bortles and the passing game.
Storm Johnson provides this platform while Bortles’ accuracy allows him to pick out open receivers and hit them regularly. Slowing Johnson will be vital to Baylor’s chances of overcoming UCF, if they slow him they will be able to pressure Bortles into throwing into tight windows.
Conversely, if UCF gets their running game going, Bortles will have much more time in the pocket and will be able to pick apart the Baylor secondary.
The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl is shaping up to be a high scoring offensive showdown.
The match is likely to come down to which defence step up and make a play in crunch can time, the final two minutes of the match.
I think that the Baylor offense will ultimately prove too strong for the UCF defence. Be sure to come back later in the week for my take on the Sugar Bowl between Alabama and Oklahoma.
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