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The bookmakers have installed Hawthorn as favourites for this year’s AFL premiership, but one big question will cloud them in the lead-up the season: can they move on from Lance “Buddy” Franklin?
It’s been three-and-a-half months since the Hawks defeated Fremantle to win their second flag in six years, and three months since Buddy turned the AFL world on its head when he announced that he was to join the Sydney Swans on a multi-million dollar, nine-year deal starting this season.
His shock defection to the Harbour City club was one of the biggest stories of the year, just behind the Essendon supplements scandal and the Melbourne tanking controversy.
However, in the same way Geelong were able to move on from the departure of Gary Ablett Jr for the Gold Coast Suns, Buddy’s departure from Glenferrie Oval isn’t expected to affect the Hawks’ chances of successfully retaining their flag.
In fact, the year after Ablett packed his bags for the holiday strip and Mark Thompson returned to Essendon to take up an assistant role under James Hird, the Cats stayed at the top of the ladder and took out the flag – and both Ablett and Thompson missed the chance to become part of a third premiership team in five years.
After three years on the Gold Coast, including a phenomenal 2013 in which he took out the Brownlow Medal for the second time in five years, Ablett is expected to guide the Suns further up the ladder in 2014, after they recorded eight victories and recorded a 14th place finish in their third year in the AFL.
Finals remain a realistic possibility for Guy McKenna’s men in 2014, though whether they can take the next step forward will be a big question itself.
I will look at their chances in a later article, but back to the main topic now and as has already been predicted, Buddy’s departure from Hawthorn is not expected to affect their premiership favouritism for season 2014.
The Hawks already have a permanent replacement at full-forward in Jarryd Roughead, who topped not only the club’s goalkicking in 2013, but also overall in the league, culminating in him being crowned the Coleman Medal for the first time.
Their goal-kicking options in 2014 won’t be restricted to just him – there are also some others in the forward line, namely Jack Gunston and Luke Breust, both of whom have played their role in the Hawks’ reign at the top of the ladder over the last two seasons.
In addition to Roughead kicking 72 goals in the year (including in the finals series), Gunston and Breust each kicked 46 and 40 majors respectively, and collectively, all three kicked seven goals in the grand final against Fremantle, with Gunston leading the way with four.
That’s already proof enough Hawthorn are more than ready to move on from Buddy’s departure; what must be remembered though is that he, in tandem with Roughead, played a very big role in the Hawks climbing up the ladder between 2004 and 2008 (from second-last on the ladder to a flag).
In only his fourth year at the top level, he became the first man since Tony Lockett in 1998 to kick a ton during the regular season (and the first since Fraser Gehrig in 2004 to kick a ton in a year, even if it took him until the finals series to do so), and in 2012 booted his 500th career major.
The Hawks can this year draw on what the Cats were able to achieve in 2011 – move on from the loss of one of their most important players to achieve more premiership success.
But in the same manner in which Gary Ablett missed out on a third premiership at the Cats while his Suns took the wooden spoon in their first year, a third premiership medal may also go begging for Buddy.
However, his arrival at the Sydney Swans will also boost their premiership odds and keep their premiership window open.
The Swans have been the most consistent side over the last two decades, reaching the finals for 15 of the last 18 years and splitting their four grand final appearances in this period as well, winning flags in 2005 and 2012.
With Franklin’s presence in the side, another flag within three years remains a very strong possibility for the Sydney Swans.
But unlike Gary Ablett Jr, whose arrival at the Gold Coast Suns in 2011 did not guarantee instant success due to the severe inexperience of the young kids he was to play alongside with, Buddy’s presence in the well-experienced Swans side will guarantee not just more on-field success, but also large crowds and memberships, just in time for the unveiling of the new northern stand at the SCG.
Thus, if the Cats were able to move on from Gary Ablett Jr after 2010, then there is no reason why the Hawks can’t after losing Buddy Franklin last year.
But unlike before the 2011 season, when the Cats were written off as premiership contenders after having also lost ‘Bomber’ Thompson to Essendon, the Hawks will still remain the team to beat in 2014.
It’s a significant loss the Hawks will suffer from here onwards, but it’s only one man and it won’t affect their performances on the field, as was proven this season when Jarryd Roughead topped the goal-kicking list ahead of Franklin.
In fact, it could deliver another premiership, just like it did when Geelong lost their two most influential men after 2010, a year in which they lost their premiership defence to Collingwood, whose crown would be taken back by the Cats the following year.
A Buddy-less Hawthorn and a Swans forward line loaded by two recent imports, the man himself and Kurt Tippett, will without a doubt be two major talking points this season.
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