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Can Vincenzo Nibali best Chris Froome?

Roar Rookie
14th January, 2014
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Astana racing has fallen from grace. (Image: La Gazzetta dello Sport).
Roar Rookie
14th January, 2014
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1525 Reads

Last May, I watched Vincenzo Nibali ride away from his rivals on stage 20 of the Giro d’Italia after beating everyone by a minute two days before in an uphill time trial.

It was a domineering ride where he crushed all comers.

A month and a half later I got a strange feeling of déjà vu, the only difference was the fact it was the Maillot Jaune dancing away from the rest of the peloton and not the Maglia Rosa – oh, and it was sunny.

The two rides by Chris Froome and Nibali had a lot in similar; they both raced aggressively, took time on the mountains and time trials and managed to win by at least four minutes.

But one key difference stood out – the depth of field Froome beat was far greater than the field Nibali was facing.

It transpired by the end of the Giro that Nibali had no real competition. Bradley Wiggins was far from his imperious best of 2012 and lost so much time on the deserts that even if he was on top form it wouldn’t have mattered, the defending champion Ryder Hesjedal was struck by illness half way though and Cadels Evans entered originally to use it as preparation for the Tour.

The fact Nibali never lost any time on any summit finish and didn’t lose more than 30 seconds to the master time triallist that is Wiggins speaks volumes about his competition.

Froome on the other hand had much stiffer competition to tackle. Nairo Quintana was in top form and able to put Froome under pressure, Joaquim Rodriguez made the Tour his primary target of the year and Alberto Contador raced incredibly aggressively, even though he clearly didn’t have the legs to worry Froome.

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Yet Froome still won by more than four minutes, even though he lost considerable time on the final two summit finishes and a minute to Contador on a flat stage.

The point is that even though the two victories looked similar, they were far from it.

Nibali didn’t put a foot wrong and was able to beat a depleted field by four and a half minutes, whereas Froome beat a field stacked full of big names by a similar margin, even though he made mistakes and faded quite drastically toward the end of the race.

This shows just how much stronger Froome was in the middle portion of the race and if he can stop a similar fade in performance this year it is hard to see him being beat.

Onto the 2014 Tour de France route itself and, with five summit finishes and a long time trial, it appears to suit Froome perfectly, assuming he comes with the same form as last year.

Whether Nibali would be able to take time on Froome on the summit finishes is up for debate but at both the Tour of Oman and Tirreno Adriatico summit finishes Froome beat Nibali and in the 2012 Tour, when both were on top form, Froome was able to beat Niabli. Nibai has undoubtedly improved since then, but surely Froome has too.

One stage that will definitely favour Froome is the long time trial. Nibali’s position is a lot better this year but I would still expect Froome to take at least a minute over 54km.

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Assuming Nbali can’t win a one-on-one duel with Froome on the Hautacam or take time on the final time trial, the only way Nibali could win is by attacking Froome like he did at the 2013 Tirreno Adriatico.

He won that race by taking Froome by surprise and it appears that is one of his only options come July.

Nibali is most certainly a better descender and bike handler, which will put him at an advantage come the cobbles. He is also a lot more tactically astute than Froome and is not afraid to take the race to his opponents and it is no secret he likes bad weather and Team Sky don’t.

It’s clear Nibali will have to ride aggressively if he wants to beat a Chris Froome on the same form as last year, but the great thing about cycling is these predictions could be completely wrong.

Come July, Contador could be back to his best, dancing away from both Froome and Nibali on the Pla D’Adet, or – God forbid – one could end up in a ditch in northern France.

That’s why we watch the Tour, because it’s completely unpredictable. Although I think we all want to see these two incredible athletes go toe-to-toe in a fair race.

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