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2014 Australian Open: Men's final preview

Roar Guru
24th January, 2014
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After 13 days and 126 gruelling matches of jam-packed action, culminating in 126 men leaving the tournament progressively, finally the Australian Open will reach its summit when Rafael Nadal and the new Swiss number one go head-to-head for the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup on Sunday night.

To reach the final, Nadal had to beat his other Swiss rival, Roger Federer, who after being the Swiss number one for so so long will finally relinquish that title to the man Nadal will face in the final, Stanislas Wawrinka.

Nadal will enter this championship match on an absolute high after devastating Federer for the 23rd time in 33 career meetings to notch up his 11th consecutive win to start 2014, while Wawrinka will still be riding a wave of emotion after producing inspired tennis to not just end the title defence of Novak Djokovic, but also send home a nervous Tomas Berdych in the semi-finals.

But history will be against him as he chases his first Grand Slam title – he will have to overcome not just a lopsided head-to-head record against Rafael Nadal, but also a terrible statistic – from 12 career meetings, the Swiss prince has yet to even claim one set.

Let’s now take a look at what is expected to be a fascinating men’s final to decide who becomes the 2014 Australian Open champion.

Rafael Nadal (1) versus Stanislas Wawrinka (8)
Head-to-head: Nadal 12-0
Last meeting: Nadal 7-6 (7-5) 7-6 (8-6), round robin, 2013 ATP World Tour Finals

Rafael Nadal
Road to the final:
Round 1: defeated Bernard Tomic 6-4, retired
Round 2: defeated Thanasi Kokkinakis 6-2, 6-4, 6-2
Round 3: defeated Gael Monfils (25) 6-1, 6-2, 6-3
Round 4: defeated Kei Nishikori (16) 7-6 (7-3), 7-5, 7-6 (7-3)
Quarter-finals: defeated Grigor Dimitrov (22) 3-6, 7-6 (7-3), 7-6 (9-7), 6-2
Semi-finals: defeated Roger Federer (6) 7-6 (7-4), 6-3, 6-3

19th career Grand Slam final
Previous best Australian Open result: Won (2009)
Previous best Grand Slam result: Won 13 times (Australian Open 2009, French Open 2005-8, 10-present, Wimbledon 2008 and 2010, US Open 2010 and 2013)

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Stanislas Wawrinka
Road to the final:
Round 1: defeated Andrey Golubev 6-4, 4-1, retired
Round 2: defeated Alejandro Falla 6-3, 6-3, 6-7 (4-7), 6-4
Round 3: defeated Vasek Pospisil (28) walkover
Round 4: defeated Tommy Robredo (17) 6-3, 7-6 (7-3), 7-6 (7-5)
Quarter-finals: defeated Novak Djokovic (2) 2-6, 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 9-7
Semi-finals: defeated Tomas Berdych (7) 6-3, 6-7 (1-7), 7-6 (7-3), 7-6 (7-4)

1st career Grand Slam final
Previous best Australian Open result: Quarter-finals (2011)
Previous best Grand Slam result: Semi-finals, 2013 US Open

Ladies and gentlemen, what a treat we will be in on Sunday night when the world number one, Rafael Nadal, meets the new Swiss number one, Stanislas Wawrinka, in what promises to be one of the most intriguing finals in recent memory.

The Spaniard has picked up where he left off from last year, and has wasted little time in suiting in well into the new year with a title victory in Doha, that marking the first time that he had won a tournament in the first week of the new season.

And he has taken that form to Melbourne Park, returning for the first time since suffering one of the most heartbreaking losses of his Grand Slam career against Novak Djokovic in the final of the 2012 Australian Open.

But he still has great memories of his 2009 title triumph here, when he defeated Roger Federer in five thrilling sets to claim what was the first hard court Grand Slam title of his career, and it’s those memories he will look to emulate on Sunday night against the other Swiss, Wawrinka.

His path to the final has been mostly straight forward, and he couldn’t have asked for a better start when Bernard Tomic was forced to retire after the first set of their highly-anticipated first round showdown due to injury.

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Then, in his first completed match he defeated Thanasi Kokkinakis in the second round but despite the lopsided scoreline, the young Aussie earned praise, not only from the media but also even Nadal himself, for his commendable performance against such a highly-ranked opponent.

But it was in the third round in which Nadal would display his true title credentials, thrashing French showman Gael Monfils for the loss of just six games.

Then, faced against Kei Nishikori in the fourth round, the Spaniard dropped serve for the first time in the tournament, but still won in three tight sets, two of which were tiebreaks.

In the quarter-finals, he was faced against first-time Slam quarter-finalist, Grigor Dimitrov.

The boyfriend of Maria Sharapova wanted to make a statement early and threatened an upset when he took the first set 6-3 over the shellshocked Nadal, before the Spaniard regrouped to win the next two sets in tiebreaks, and then run away with it in the fourth set.

The semi-finals saw Nadal opposed to Roger Federer for the 33rd time, 11th time at a Grand Slam and third at the Australian Open.

After a closely contested first set which Nadal claimed in a tiebreak, the Spaniard would win the next two sets by 6-3, 6-3 to record only his second straight-sets victory over Federer in a Grand Slam match and move on to his third Australian Open final and 19th Grand Slam final overall.

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By contrast, his opponent, Stanislas Wawrinka, will enter his first Grand Slam final at the age of 28 on the back of only four completed match victories.

After his first round opponent, Andrew Golubev, fell victim to the stifling heat in the opening round, Wawrinka celebrated his first completed victory when he defeated Alejandro Falla in four sets, and then walked into the fourth round when Vasek Pospisil withdrew before their third round showdown due to a back injury.

He would then record his only straight-sets victory of the tournament by defeating 17th seed Tommy Robredo in the fourth round, of which two sets were decided by tiebreaks.

His coming of age would then come in the quarter-finals. He was not only faced against defending champion Novak Djokovic but also a 14-match losing streak against the Serb, having not beaten him since 2006.

Two heartbreaking five-set losses at the Australian and US Opens last year were also fresh in his mind, but those would spur him onto arguably the greatest victory of his career, finally knocking Djokovic off the perch of Melbourne Park in five sets, the final set lasting 16 games.

And finally, in the semi-finals, he pounced on Tomas Berdych’s nerves and defeated the Czech in four sets, with a break in the middle of the first set ultimately proving the difference as Stan the Man finally moved into his first Grand Slam final.

And so what a final it will be on Sunday night.

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Stats that matter:
* This will be their thirteenth meeting overall; Nadal has won all twelve of their meetings in straight sets, including four times last year.
* This will be their third meeting at Grand Slam level, Nadal won their previous two losing just six games in each of them.
* Win or lose, Stanislas Wawrinka is guaranteed to become the Swiss number one for the first time ever, displacing Roger Federer who had been the top Swiss since 2001.
* This will be Nadal’s 19th career Grand Slam final, while for Wawrinka this will be his first.
* Wawrinka joins David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych and Mariano Puerta in having Nadal as an opponent in their first Grand Slam final.
* Only Roger Federer (twice, at Wimbledon in 2006 and 2007) and Novak Djokovic (Wimbledon and US Open 2011 and Australian Open 2012) have beaten Nadal in a Grand Slam final.
* Victory for Nadal would extend his head-to-head record against Federer and Wawrinka combined to 36-10.
* Victory for the Spaniard would see him become the first man in the Open Era to achieve the double Career Grand Slam, and also see him equal Pete Sampras on 14 Grand Slam titles.
* Those would also see him stake his claim to greatness over Roger Federer, who has only won the French Open once, and Sampras, who never won at Roland Garros let alone reach the final.
* Wawrinka is the first man other than Federer, Nadal, Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray to have reached the final here since Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2008.
* No non-Big Four member has won the Australian Open since Marat Safin won in 2005; likewise, no non-Big Four member has won a Grand Slam title since Juan Martin del Potro won the 2009 US Open.
* Apart from Roger Federer and Martina Hingis, no other man or woman from Switzerland has won a Grand Slam title.

The verdict
As David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych found out at Roland Garros last year and Wimbledon in 2010 respectively, inexperience will be costly when it comes to facing one of the all-time greats of the game in Rafael Nadal in your first Grand Slam final.

Ferrer could only manage eight games in his first Grand Slam final last year, while Berdych fared slightly better, managing 12 games.

Thus, the interesting question will be how many games Wawrinka can win in his first Grand Slam final. Though he has never won a set against Nadal, six of them have gone to tiebreaks, including three of the last four.

But in the end, it will be the Spaniard’s experience that will be the telling story, as he tries to join Serena Williams in becoming the second active player, male or female, to achieve the double Career Grand Slam.

Can he not only enter the history books, but also increase his lead at the top of the rankings? Victory would see him lock up the world number one ranking until at least Wimbledon, where he can pick up points at will having lost in the first round last year, and make life for second-ranked Novak Djokovic very difficult.

Prediction
Rafael Nadal in straight sets.

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