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Once again the overall victor of the Tour Down Under will be decided on the slopes of Willunga Hill. With just 14 seconds between current race leader Cadel Evans, of BMC, and third placed Diego Ulissi, of Lampre-Merida, anything could happen yet.
All eyes will be on the battle between Cadel Evans, of BMC, and second placed Simon Gerrans, of Orica-GreenEDGE for the Ochre Jersey.
However, the Australian duo cannot afford to take their eyes off the Italy’s Diego Ulissi while fighting it out for the prize.
After almost winning both intermediate sprints during yesterday’s fourth stage, there are once again six bonus seconds up for grabs out on course. Will Orica-GreenEDGE go chasing after the two intermediate sprints for a second consecutive stage?
Claiming four bonus seconds would allow Gerrans to snatch the Ochre Jersey by at least a second if he wins atop Willunga Hill.
However, there is a great argument to be had around whether Orica-GreenEDGE and Gerrans should waste valuable energy chasing bonus seconds ahead of Willunga Hill.
The peloton will again climb Willunga Hill twice, with the decisive showdown between Cadel Evans and Simon Gerrans for the Ochre Jersey anticipated to happen during the second, and final, ascent.
Usually a climb for explosive Puncheurs, Willunga Hill features an average gradient of 7.4% spread over a distance of three kilometres.
If the old saying that a great offence is a great defence holds true then perhaps Cadel Evans’ best strategy could be to put Simon Gerrans under pressure during the first half of Willunga Hill, where some of the highest gradients are.
While Ulissi’s explosiveness will also be a massive threat on the slopes of Willunga Hill.
After successfully defending his King of the Mountains jersey for yet another stage, the pressure will be on Adam Hansen, of Lotto Belisol, to doggedly stick with the race favourites over Wilunga Hill.
With both ascents of Willunga Hill gifting 16 points to the first cyclist across the line, Hansen will need to score points to keep his jersey safe from the likes of Evans, Gerrans, Axel Domont of AG2R Le Mondiale and William Clarke of Drapac Pro Cycling.
Given Simon Gerrans propensity to claim either the stage or overall victory on Willunga Hill, the Victorian will surely head in to Stage 5 as the prime favourite.
Whether Gerrans can wrestle the Ochre Jersey off of Cadel Evan’s shoulders in the process however is difficult to predict. In its relatively short history as a stage finish victory on Willunga Hill has always been decided by a mano-a-mano sprint.
Second favourite to claim the stage victory on Willunga Hill will, rightly or wrongly, be Cadel Evans.
During Willunga Hill’s short history as a stage finish the top two of the General Classification have never finished outside of the podium positions, and given Evans’ current form it is difficult to see that stopping now.
While lacking the explosiveness of Gerrans, that means little if Evans can manage to once again crack Gerrans through sheer intensity and endurance.
I suspect Diego Ulissi will quite likely be a rank outsider for the stage victory for most people. However, he is in my opinion the third favourite to claim the stage victory.
Ulissi has an explosive kick suited to Willunga Hill and when on form, as he seems to be currently, he often places well in one day races of similar or harder difficulty when team leader.
A dark horse for today’s stage could be Richie Porte, who Team Sky have been constantly attempting to set-up for success in spite of Geraint Thomas better standing in the General Classification.
After not quite reaching the lofty heights anticipated prior to the race’s beginning, victory on Willunga Hill would allow Porte to conclude on a more positive note.
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