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2014 TDU Stage 6 preview: drama on the last day?

Marcel Kittle will like his chances of taking out Stage 1 if it comes down to a sprint finish. (Photocredit: David Hill)
Roar Guru
25th January, 2014
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Sitting tenderly upon the shoulders of Orica-GreenEDGE’s Simon Gerrans, could the Ochre Jersey change hands yet again during the 2014 Tour Down Under’s finale?

With just five seconds separating first place Simon Gerrans from third place Diego Ulissi, the Tour Down Under could still have a few surprises up its sleeve.

Not only are there nine bonus seconds available out on course via the three intermediate sprints, but during last year’s finale several splits occurred in the peloton during the bunch sprint.

Such fine margins means Gerrans, Cadel Evans and Diego Ulissi shall have to remain alert throughout Stage Six. One slightest lapse in concentration could potentially cost Simon Gerrans and Orica-GreenEDGE the overall victory and see the Ochre Jersey back on Evans’ shoulders.

Contrary to Stage Four of the 2014 Tour Down Under, Orica-GreenEDGE will be under no pressure to control the breakaway in the interests of winning the intermediate sprints. Although Evans and Ulissi could potentially attempt to overturn Gerrans’ advantage, Orica-GreenEDGE should have enough fire-power to mop up the time bonuses through the likes of Matthew Goss and Michael Matthews.

With no categorised climbs on the 18 lap 4.75 kilometre long circuit the King of the Mountains classification will see no changes today. The same should, if I have my calculations correct, be true of the points classification, where Simon Gerrans should have an almost unassailable lead over Diego Ulissi.

Similar to the fourth stage of the 2014 Tour Down Under, the peloton will once again be required to navigate their way through two 90-degree turns within 700 metres of the finishing line. As the cyclists travel back up Flinders Street towards the finishing line they will make a left turn in to Hutt Street with 650 metres remaining before turning right in to Bartels Road 100 metres later to sprint 550 metres for the line.

With both Flinders Street and Hutt Street being utilised to ferry the peloton towards and away from the finishing line these two roads will be divided in half, minimising the space available to the peloton.

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With space at a premium approaching the finishing line positioning shall be key leading in to the bunch sprint, with the road potentially widening when the peloton turn on to Bartels Road.

Acceleration out of the corners will also be a key determiner in deciding who emerges with the stage victory.

The lead-out trains will find it difficult to maintain a high speed through the two corners, and just 550 metres of finishing straight will make it difficult for the sprinters to achieve their maximum speed before the line without an explosive kick.

Lotto Belisol will be the team to defeat when it comes time for the battle of the lead outs, and will almost certainly keep Andre Greipel to the very front of the peloton. After claiming victory during the fourth stage of the 2014 Tour Down Under, the Belgian team and their German sprinter shall be confident of making it two victories from three attempts.

Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel shall be looking for revenge after seeing his hopes of claiming victory on Stage Four dashed by the efforts of Orica-GreenEDGE during the crosswinds. The German sprinter has the acceleration required to scorch by his rivals, however, he will need to be well positioned to ensure he has sufficient road remaining before the line.

Cannondale’s Elia Viviani has the potential to upset everyone in the bunch sprint, however, his poor positioning degrades his chances. Should the Italian sprinter be able to keep himself with a few positions of the front of the peloton his blistering speed and acceleration could see him claim a unforeseen victory.

I suspect Orica-GreenEDGE’s intentions will be firmly focused on protecting Simon Gerrans’ Ochre Jersey, so we may not any of the Australian outfit’s sprinters contest for the stage victory. Should Michael Matthews or Matthew Goss receive permission to have a crack at the stage victory they may even be left alone to their own devices without a lead out.

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The shorter criterium-like nature of Stage Six means Caleb Ewan could be a dark horse for a podium position if he can repeat his performance from the People’s Cycling Classic.

Should Ewan be able to freelance his way on to the correct backwheel, the Australian could easily compensate for the lack of a world class lead out. In a conflict of blistering acceleration, rather than just top end speed, the youngster may even have an outside chance of usurping Kittel and Greipel.

Other outside sprinters hoping to upset the apple cart and snatch a surprise stage victory include; the Van Poppels or Fabio Felline of Trek Factory Racing, Mark Renshaw or Julian Alaphilippe of Omega Pharma – Quick-Step, the erratic Roberto Ferrari of Lampre – Merida, Steele Von Hoff of Garmin – Sharp and Jonathan Cantwell of Drapac Pro Cycling.

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