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Can Russia's big red machine plow through Sochi?

Roar Guru
7th February, 2014
3

After analysing the medal chances of some of Australia’s top skiers and snowboarders, including Torah Bright and Lydia Lasilla, it’s time to turn our attention to arguably the most important medal of the games: the Men’s Ice Hockey gold medal.

To many Russians, Canadians and Americans, this medal is the Holy Grail – if you could win one gold medal, this is it.

The fact that these games are being held in Russia makes this medal all the more important to the Russian public.

That makes this a perfect time to delve deeper into the gold medal chances of the Russian Men’s national team.

The team, led by Washington Capitals Captain Alex Ovechkin and Pittsburgh Penguins superstar Evgeni Malkin, has been charged with the task of living up to the public’s expectations and dealing with the pressure of a home Olympics.

The team is also tasked with the job of returning Russian hockey to the glory days of the Soviet Union.

The USSR Hockey team won seven gold medals from nine Olympic Games while the Russian team has won just a silver and a bronze medal in the five Olympics since, including a very disappointing sixth place in Vancouver.

This sixth place finish not only reflects the struggles experienced by the Russian side in recent years, but also the growth of ice hockey around the world.

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Ice hockey has become incredibly competitive in recent years, especially with NHL players competing in the past four Winter Olympics, and it is harder than ever for one nation to dominate the sport like the USSR did for 40 years.

A hockey-loving nation like Russia expects a gold medal, no matter how unrealistic it may be.

The team selected to represent Russia at the Sochi Olympics is strong. As I stated, it is led by NHL megastar Alex Ovechkin and features other NHL players including goaltenders Sergei Bobrovsky and Semyon Varlamov.

The NHL talent is mixed in with Kontinental Hockey League (KHL), the Russian national competition, stars including Alexander Radulov and Ilya Kovalchuk.

In all, Team Russia includes 15 NHL players and 10 KHL players.

Russia no doubt has selected a strong side for Sochi, but there are a few notable omissions, including NHL players Alexander Semin and Nail Yakupov.

Both players were seemingly overlooked in favour of Russian based players who regularly play on the larger International Standard rinks.

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However, there is a reason that these KHL players do not play in the NHL – they’re not good enough, and experience playing on a larger rink should not outweigh talent and ability.

While Semin’s form this season has been below his lofty standards, scoring just 13 goals and 15 assists, he is still an extremely talented player with Olympic experience.

Along with the notable NHL omissions, some KHL players also have a right to feel disappointed about not being picked, notably Alexander Burmistrov and Evgeny Kuznetsov.

Burmistov played with the Winnipeg Jets in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons before returning home to Russian side AK Bars Kazan. He has 35 points in 50 games this season and has been in strong form of late.

As I mentioned earlier, the matches in Sochi will be played on full size international rinks, 100 feet wide by 200 feet long.

The NHL (and the Vancouver Olympics) plays on 85 feet wide by 200 feet long and many nations have altered their teams to meet this change.

The American and Canadian teams selected smaller, agile and more mobile players while the European teams favoured European-based players over NHL players.

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The teams have seemingly made a big deal out of a factor which will not have a big impact on the tournament.

I know I would rather have an excellent hockey player rather than an average player who regularly plays on a larger rink.

Professional players can adapt to a wider rink, an average player cannot miraculously lift his game to that of a player far superior.

The Russians, and other European teams, might think that they hold an advantage over their North American counterparts but the fact of the matter is that any advantages are minimal.

An increased rink will not play that big a part in determining the gold medallist.

Yes it will provide some extra space for attacking teams allowing them to spread the defencemen and as a result take better shots on goal and yes the European teams have experience defending on a larger rink, but the North American sides will still be able to utilise the extra space to their advantage.

Where the Russians will be able to utilise the larger ink to their advantage is the differing style of play they use compared to USA and Canada.

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Russia will play a patient style of play featuring a lot of passing until a perfect shot opens up. NHL players typically shoot even if the perfect shot is not there because it is much easier to get the puck back.

The Russians can frustrate USA and Canada by controlling possession and starving their opposition of the puck.

If the Canadians and Americans do not understand that it is harder to gain possession on a larger rink and adapt their game accordingly, the Russians could benefit greatly.

The first sign of how well the American side adapts to the larger rink will come in their pool game against Russia on the middle Saturday of the Games.

If Russia is able to control the puck and run rings around the US side, we will know that the US have not adapted.

But I can’t see that happening. Russia’s style of play me be more suited to these conditions, but I think America will be able to find a way to slow Russia.

As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, Russia finds itself in the same pool as America, the other sides being Slovenia and Slovakia.

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This will be a big test for the Russian side; the American team is loaded with NHL talent and looking to improve upon their silver medal from Vancouver.

The match is sure to ignite plenty of passion from both fans and players and Russia needs to fully utilise the home ground advantage.

If Russia wants to win this match, the key is their defence. Going into this tournament there are significant concerns surrounding the Russian defence.

The American side is incredibly deep in attacking talent and will be able send wave after wave after wave at the Russian defencemen.

Anton Belov has seemingly been picked due to his mobility in the hope that he can shut down the likes of Patrick Kane and Ryan Kesler with his superior speed, but Russia will miss veteran Sergei Gonchar and prolific shot blocker Anton Volchenkov.

The man tasked with leading team Russia to victory is Captain Alex Ovechkin. It is not possible to explain how much pressure is on this man.

Think Michael Clarke in the Ashes times ten, or LeBron James leading into the 2012 NBA Finals on steroids.

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This pressure is only increased by the fact that Canadian wonder boy Sidney Crosby was able to manage the weight of a nation and lead Canada to gold in 2010.

What makes this worse is the fact that in the past ten years Ovechkin has been the face of a superstar laden Washington Capitals team expected to win the Stanley Cup on numerous occasions, Ovechkin and the Capitals have not one the Cup once.

Whether it is fair or not, Ovechkin, much like Peyton Manning, has copped a lot of the blame for the Capitals’ repeated playoff failures.

Across the next two weeks in Sochi Ovechkin has a chance to prove the doubters wrong by showing the world he can handle the pressure of a home Olympics and delivering in potentially the biggest hockey matches of his life.

The men’s Russian national team enters the Sochi Olympics carrying the expectations of a nation. The team is expected to win gold and anything less will be a failure.

The fortunes of this team depends on two things.

Firstly, the pool game against the USA will largely set the tone for the elimination games to be played later in the tournament, either the USA will show the importance of star power or Russia will establish a blueprint for how to beat the North American sides.

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Secondly is how an extremely confusing qualification process treats the team. After the pool stages each team is ranked from one to twelve, the top four teams progress through to the quarter final while the bottom eight play an elimination game.

It is entirely possible that Russia picks up a fifth seed and is forced to play an elimination game, or that Canada and the US meet in a quarterfinal, blowing the tournament wide open.

What makes these scenarios possible is the fact that Russia and the US are in the same pool and the fact that factors such as goal differential will likely play a role in determining the seeds.

If Russia is able to overcome the USA in the pool rounds, they are a strong chance of medalling in Sochi. If not, I guess there chances will be determined by the seeding.

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