With the title race heating up in England and the league’s big players meeting each other in coming weeks, the key question is whether champions need to turn up to the big games.
Jose Mourinho is famous for his ability to spur his sides on against title competitors and win in the crunch matches, and this season has been no different.
His Chelsea outfit already seem to have an upper-hand, having claimed an impressive 14 points from a possible 18 in the six matches against members of the ‘big five’ – Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool.
Yet does performing against your direct rivals actually hold much sway in the push for a title?
Statistics and history suggests yes and no.
For 21 years in the English Premier League the champions have accumulated at least 11 points against teams in the top five in every season bar one.
That exception came, of course, from Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United.
In 2008-09 they grabbed only nine points against competitors but still managed to take the title from Liverpool, who on the other hand performed exceptionally against their rivals.
Clearly, picking off clubs in the lower echelons in the league also plays its role. Yet, on average, champion sides have claimed a solid 15 points from the 24 on offer against rivals.
This suggests big-game mentality is essential for champion sides.
We know Mourinho’s Chelsea are sitting pretty based on that theory, but what about the other two likely title challengers – Manchester City and Arsenal?
With the Gunners looking to end a 10-year title hoodoo, it has to be said that their inability to beat their competitors may have been holding them back.
The last time they ended a season in top spot was 2003-04, when a team with talents such as Patrick Viera, Dennis Bergkamp, Thierry Henry and Gilberto Silva went an entire year unbeaten.
The ‘Invincibles’ claimed a massive 18 points from their immediate rivals, including a double over Chelsea and Liverpool, but since then their big-game performances have been flat.
Have they lost their big-game mentality?
Since their last title Arsenal have only managed, on average, just less than 10 points a season from a possible 24 in crunch games.
On the occasion where they did amass a solid 15 points (2006-07) their poor form elsewhere meant they still fell behind eventual champions Man United by 21 points.
As it stands so far this season Arsenal could go either way.
They have managed only four points from a possible 12 on offer so far, having played each of their rivals once and already lost twice.
They now face Liverpool and Manchester United within five days and then play Manchester City and Chelsea in a week’s period towards the back end of March.
This is crunch time for Arsene Wenger if he wants to get that elusive piece of silverware.
Never has a champion lost more than three times against direct rivals in the Premier League’s history.
It leaves Arsenal with little scope for error.
Man City, the third title competitors in this 2013-14 season, are, like Chelsea, better placed than Arsenal in the big-game clashes.
They have claimed nine points out of 15 in their five matches against top-five rivals, though the recent loss to Chelsea hurt and derailed the frightening momentum they had collected.
Road trips to Manchester United and Arsenal within five days in March could define their season and prove the difference in the title race.
It remains to be seen whether Chelsea’s knack for big games will give them the edge in what has been the most exciting and open title race for some time.
They only have two games left against the ‘top five’ and can revel in the knowledge that their competitors have a tougher run-in.
Yet Chelsea must improve on breaking down the tough, smaller sides in the league.
Arsenal have that down-pat, as do Manchester City, but their matches against the top teams in the coming months could prove make or break.
If Arsenal wins both their clashes against Liverpool (tonight) and Manchester United (Wednesday) it could put them in pole position for a long-awaited title.
History suggests they’ll have to step up if they are to quench their fans’ thirst for silverware.
The author has assumed that despite Manchester United’s torrid year so far they will sneak into the ‘top five’ at the expense of Tottenham.
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