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After a week off the Six Nations resumes this weekend and we’re approaching crunch time.
If England and Wales lose, they’re out of the running to win the tournament as both Ireland and France would remain undefeated and two games ahead of England and Wales with two rounds remaining.
On the other hand if England and Wales win, four teams will be two and one setting up a great last two rounds.
Wales v France
The first match of the round will be played at Millennium Stadium on Friday night with France on the road for the first time this year.
Wales were very poor in their last outing against Ireland so will be motivated to prove the doubters wrong. France looked good in patches of their match against Italy but I think most people doubt they have the consistency to win three in a row.
Warren Gatland has made a couple of key changes to his side this week. Mike Phillips has been dropped to the bench with Rhys Webb to start in his place.
George North has been moved to #13 in place of the injured Scott Williams with Liam Williams coming on to the wing.
The only unforced change is that of Phillips and although he hasn’t been playing the house down, replacing the halfback isn’t going to improve the forwards performance at the breakdown or spark the midfield which were such issues against Ireland.
Gatland has obviously decided to give the forwards who were dominated by Ireland a chance to show that they just had a bad day.
If he’s concerned about the performance of the midfield I would have looked outside of Phillips at Rhys Priestland whose performances haven’t impressed me.
France has made only one change to their starting side with flanker Bernard Le Roux ruled out after concussion and replaced by Wenceslas Lauret.
Mathieu Bastareaud has recovered from a shoulder injury and will play at #13. His clash with North in that channel will be good viewing.
Despite the doubters I think France go into this match with all the momentum and will put Wales under enormous pressure. In the recent past Wales have responded well to these pressure situations and it won’t surprise me if they perform again at home.
I’ll tip Wales by seven points.
Italy v Scotland
Let’s face it – this is the battle for the wooden spoon and the match will attract little interest outside of the fans of each team. Both teams will know this is the reality and you’d expect them to find something extra in the tank to try and take this one out.
Italy has competed well in their opening matches against Wales and France without looking like they were genuine threats to take out either match.
Scotland also hasn’t looked likely to take out either of their two matches so far but the difference is they haven’t competed well.
They’ve been unable to score a try against Ireland or England and it’s hard to see what changes can be made in the short term to turn the situation around.
Australian coach Scott Johnson has continued with some unexpected selections as he searches for solutions – dropping David Denton (who was the Scot’s best player until he was surprisingly replaced against England) to the bench with Johnny Beattie to start at #8.
This decision comes on top of the decision made in the lead up to the match against England to drop the captain, Kelly Brown, out of the squad completely – a decision which has been continued this week.
In other more predictable changes Ross Ford has been replaced at hooker by Scott Lawson and Richie Gray comes back in from the cold to replace Tim Swinson at lock.
Johnson has commented this week that he doesn’t care what other people think about his performance but my view, from afar, is that he looks very ‘interim’ and his replacement in Vern Cotter can’t arrive soon enough.
The makeup of the Italian team isn’t known yet with both Mauro Bergamasco and Martin Castrogiovanni struggling to be fit.
Tomaso Allan has played well in his first two Test matches and looks like he’s a player the Italians can build a team around for the future. This match is an opportunity for him to step up and really take control of a match as the Scot’s defence won’t place him under as much pressure as he’s faced so far.
I’m tipping Italy to win by 10 points.
England v Ireland
England at Twickenham is one of the tougher matches for any team in this tournament but Ireland must be confident coming off their strong performance against Wales.
Joe Schmidt hasn’t taken long to make an impact on this Ireland team and their Australian defence coach, Les Kiss, has the defence purring along nicely – yet to concede a try in 2014.
England started poorly against France, came back well but then couldn’t finish the job. Against Scotland they did what they had to do without looking like they were in top form. The inconsistent performances are a concern.
Dan Cole has been ruled out for at least the remainder of this tournament and that is a serious blow for England as the likely replacement, David Wilson, has played very little rugby this year.
Apart from that forced change there are no other changes expected to the starting team but George Ford is likely to be added to the bench as the backup flyhalf. By all reports he is a very good prospect.
England will rely on Billy Vunipola to get them going forward with his powerful bursts. Ireland will be planning to shut him down with their aggressive defence and if they can achieve that I’d be concerned about England’s attacking ability.
It will be interesting to see what tactics Ireland employ – against Wales they kicked often and well, pinning Wales inside their own territory. Mike Brown at fullback for England offers more of a counter attack threat than Leigh Halfpenny does for Wales so I won’t be surprised to see less deep field kicking from Ireland this match.
Centre field high balls may be a better option to force Brown to come forward and take the ball in congested areas where he has no room to move.
No changes are expected to the Ireland team and I expect we’ll see a similar defensive performance from their pack to that we saw against Wales.
I expect we may see Ireland seek to use turnover ball more in this match rather than kicking it away. If they can get ahead of England on the scoreboard with an early try or two I question England’s ability to come back against such a good defensive team.
I’m tipping Ireland by nine points.