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The Australian Cup is the autumn equivalent of the Cox Plate (or at least was, until the $4 million Queen Elizabeth came along).
Australian Cup
1. Fiorente
Fiorente has never run anything less than a slashing race since arriving in Australia, and will confirm superstar status if he can take this out as the short-priced favourite.
His two 2000m runs in Australia, a fourth in the Turnbull and third in the Cox Plate, could easily have been victories, as he was unlucky in both.
He is the deserved favourite and possibly the best horse in the country.
2. Green Moon
Green Moon hasn’t won a race since his 2012 Melbourne Cup victory, and hasn’t really looked like it to be truthful, despite running some nice races in that time.
He was only a length inferior to Fiorente first up in the St George, and grows another leg at Flemington, so he could be some sort of presence if he can show his best acceleration and has things go his way.
3. Mourayan
Possibly as old as the rest of the horses in the race combined, Mourayan returned with a massive first-up run in the St George, finding the line better than any horse outside the winner to be just pipped into second place, and at $151 if you don’t mind.
Can he reproduce something similar here? His second-up record suggests he’ll improve, and he has run second in a Mackinnon at this track and distance.
4. Foreteller
Foreteller keeps on fronting up and running his decent races, looking good in the Orr upon resumption and following it up with a solid effort in the St George.
2000m is his right distance, and he’ll be charging late but may run out of time and space to beat them all.
5. Star Rolling
Star Rolling is the fresh horse on the weight-for-age middle-distance scene, and acquitted himself well in his first attempt, making Fiorente pull out all stops to beat him last start.
This is another step up, and he’ll likely be tracking Shamus Award in the run, which should prove too tough a task in itself, let alone accounting for all of the older horses.
6. Voleuse de Coeurs
Something of the mystery runner in the field, certainly to Australian punters, Voleuse de Coeurs has only been seen once in this country – running an even 10th in last year’s Melbourne Cup.
She is an overseas Group 1 winner at a staying trip, carrying 61kgs while doing it, so will be bringing her share of class to the race.
7. Let’s Make Adeal
Let’s Make Adeal has shown ability at lower levels than this, without being able to secure victory in the process. That won’t be changing here.
8. Shamus Award
No longer just the maiden that won the Cox Plate, Shamus Award is proving himself a Group 1 specialist, which is good, because that’s where the rest of his career will be spent.
A brilliant ride and win last week saw him dominate the high-class Australian Guineas field, which has in turn set up a mouth-watering clash with Fiorente.
He’ll likely lead them along again and challenge all others to defy him.
9. Thunder Fantasy
The best winning chance in the race outside the two favourites has to be Thunder Fantasy, and he’s the one to expose any chinks in the armour of Shamus Award and Fiorente.
His credentials are becoming sounder by the race, and with Group 1 thirds behind Polanski over the staying trip and Shamus Award at the mile, his versatility is unquestioned.
There’s every chance he’ll be stronger at the end of 2000m than Shamus Award, and will have the cosiest run of any horse in the race.
Fiorente may well have to get past a three-year-old to win this thing, just not the one everyone expects.
Last year’s Cox Plate winner will be up front, and the Melbourne Cup winner will be chasing him down.
Also in the mix is a three-year-old Derby and Guineas place-getter who may just spoil the fight. Hopefully we get a clash for the ages.
Selections: 1. Thunder Fantasy 2. Fiorente 3. Shamus Award 4. Foreteller
With two huge races at Flemington, all eyes will deservedly be there, but Warwick Farm is also playing host to Group 1 racing, in the form of the Chipping Norton Stakes.
The return of It’s a Dundeel is the story of the race, followed close behind by Boban and the question marks attached to his first two runs this campaign.
We might see something special from It’s a Dundeel tomorrow, laying down the gauntlet to the big names in the Australian Cup running 20 minutes later. I hope we do.
Hawkspur is also approaching a D-Day of his own, having been plain in the Orr first-up, albeit with excuses. Stablemate Moriarty has the feel of a horse that will win a big race soon, probably when least expected. What a run behind Appearance last time.
Monton is the rock-hard, fit, track-and-distance specialist, carrying big weights in far lower classes and picking up several wins along the way.
Glencadem Gold mixes between good and awful, and Prince Cheri is the new stayer on the Sydney Cup path. Both will be looking for a nice clean-out run before tackling longer trips.
Selections: 1. It’s a Dundeel 2. Moriarty 3. Monton 4. Boban