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It is almost impossible to pick a top eight in the NRL

Adam Reynolds has re-signed with the Rabbitohs. (AAP Image/Action Photographics, Robb Cox) .
Roar Guru
6th March, 2014
22

Souths, Melbourne, Roosters, Manly, Newcastle, Cronulla, Penrith and the Broncos. These are eight teams that I think are likely to make the top eight in 2014.

But considering how many teams win at least three games by two points or less, plus the occasional golden point game, picking the exact point in the eight is a little difficult.

Last season the difference between coming fifth (Cronulla) and 10th (Panthers) was six points (three games), plus some for and against.

Coming fifth at the end of a season would be considered a pass by almost all clubs.

Last season the difference between coming sixth (Bulldogs) and 13th (Raiders) was the same six points plus some for and against. Coming sixth not a great season but I would suggest that maybe all of the teams in this year’s comp would take it now if you offered them sixth without an injury.

The key to being a top four team is simple. Your key players in 1, 6, 7, 9 need to be in form and 80% you’re your cap needs to be on the field on any given weekend.

This is the reason IMO that paying one million dollars for one player is so risky.

This weekend is critical with last year’s top four playing each other. The whole season is a race to 12 – a race to 12 wins.

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Once you get there you are playing for the icing. Look at last year’s ladder and almost every ladder since the top eight began.

If you get 12 wins, you are in the semis.

For every win over 12 wins you go up a place or even two places.

The first weeks are critical to the teams with really lofty ambitions. Sure you can come home with a run towards the end of the season but this is the hard way.

Having 12 wins up with six games to go is what most coaches will want.

Lastly everyone is saying it and I know bookmakers will disagree with me but Roosters are a lay to make it back to back at moment at this price. The dark horse of Round 1 has to be the Raiders at 3.40 this week.

Don’t be silly people, this week is as important as Round 26. You can only get two points for winning Round 1 or Round 26. Whoever plans on holding up the Provan-Summons Trophy at the end of the season must start their run this weekend.

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