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The 2014 AFL season looks skinny for premiership contenders at the top end, thick for final-eight candidates through the middle, and has a few teams near certain to prop up the ladder throughout the year.
Today we’re going to look at teams likely to fall short of September action.
The battle to avoid the ignominy of the wooden spoon looks to be between St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne. Some might throw Brisbane into the mix as well, but things would need to go terribly awry.
The poor old Saints were always going to freefall, and hard, once they started to slide from grand final contention post-2010.
Their elite core getting old together was one problem. Topping up with experienced role-players didn’t deliver the elusive premiership, but left them with too much dead wood on the list when the time to replenish came.
Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna are both coming off seasons near any produced at their best, but can’t be expected to maintain the level. Brendon Goddard and Nick Dal Santo are gone, the bravest warrior Lenny Hayes is on his last legs and, to add injury to insult, reigning best-and-fairest winner Jack Steven is out with a long-term injury.
The Demons and Giants have been uncompetitive at best and deplorable at worst over the last two seasons, particularly in 2013.
Over that time they won a combined nine games, with only three coming last year.
Melbourne has started a long process, both of finding top-end quality to grow into a winning midfield, as well as deepening the core of it. They have already shown they’ll win more of the ball this season, and will be intent on keeping it as long as possible, implementing a high-possession game plan.
When they do kick it inside 50, it will be to a forward line potentially high on firepower but currently high on injuries.
GWS must show vast improvement this year. The overall health of the competition demands it.
In any given round, a third to half of their best 22 should now comprise seasoned players from other clubs, with the rest made up of some the best young talent in the game.
For neutral supporters, this season will be about watching the youngsters mature, and working out which one you’d like your club to poach when the time is right.
Last year saw Taylor Adams leave for Collingwood and Dom Tyson for Melbourne among several others, a trend likely to continue over coming years.
Brisbane has all the ingredients for a gun midfield with Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden, Daniel Rich, Pearce Hanley and Matthew Leuenberger complemented by Dayne Zorko and Sam Mayes.
Their limitations occur at either end of the ground, with a batch of players that – at best – could be described as honest.
The beauty of the four sides mentioned thus far is they’re under the tutelage of new coaches, so supporters can realistically hope for a greater than anticipated return.
Fans will be hoping their club can be this year’s version of Ken Hinkley’s Port from 2013.
If any of them can make a run to mid-table and still be in contention for finals at the halfway mark, they will be close to the story of the season at that point.
Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs are unlikely to make the eight, and even the most ardent supporters should be looking at 2014 as a stepping stone towards a finals tilt the year after.
They don’t have the benefit of new coaches, but will be looking to improve and grow under their current ones, Guy McKenna entering his fourth season in charge of the Suns, while Brendan McCartney helms the Dogs for his third season.
There’s every chance these two sides will have top-four midfields in a few years’ time, and their performances should be judged against each other from this point on.
The Dogs already have remarkable young depth in this area, and the Suns have the potential to play short bursts of the most exciting football we might see this year.
Gold Coast do have the Dogs shaded for key position talent, particularly in the form of future All-Australians Rory Thompson and Charlie Dixon. The dynamics of the Bulldog forward line this year will interest observers.
Two of the biggest Victorian clubs, as well as the two from immediately west of the border, are four of the hardest sides to get a line on in 2014.
Essendon played some exhilarating football last season, contending for a top-four berth until deep into the year before they were finally overcome, both by better sides and the toll of a season spent living and working under the ASADA and media microscope.
Their forward line is cobbled together, their backline will be weakened whenever Dustin Fletcher is in the 22, and Jobe Watson will ably lead a reasonably strong midfield.
They are just about the only side I’d say could legitimately finish anywhere from fourth to 12th.
Carlton is a side that looks mediocre on paper going into 2014, and often looked mediocre on the field in 2013. Mick Malthouse’s teams are always greater than the sum of their parts though, and his current list of players is arguably the most versatile in the league.
The question is whether the overall level of these players is high enough to measure up against the best sides over 23 rounds of football.
On a side note, much has been made of how many flags the Swans have to win with Buddy Franklin on their list in order to make the record free-agency acquisition a success. Will the Chris Judd years in the navy blue be deemed a failure when he fails to taste the ultimate success with them?
Adelaide will be a popular pick to jump into the finals this season, falling from a preliminary final in 2012 to an inglorious 11th-placed finish in 2013. A forward line consisting of Taylor Walker, James Podsiadly and Eddie Betts, with Patrick Dangerfield floating through it, certainly has a potent look to it.
Their midfield still has its limitations though, and they strike as a team still building to something a couple of years down the track.
What a story Port were last season. It was the ride that every supporter of a bottom-placed club dreams of, yet seldom does it become reality as it did for the Power in 2013.
The energy of their home crowds was one of the highlights of the season, lifting them over the line in close matches, and thrilling to every piece of inspirational play their team provided, of which there were plenty through the likes of Chad Wingard, Ollie Wines, Travis Boak, Hamish Hartlett, Justin Westhoff and Jay Schulz.
Did they over-achieve last year, or are they a young side with improvement to come? I’d love to see them make the finals again, but fear they will miss out before starting a more methodical climb from 2015.
Join me tomorrow as I look at my prospective finalists.