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Another year, another AFL ladder prediction

Roar Pro
11th March, 2014
1

At the start of any football season every man and his dog is keen to have a crack at predicting the ladder, usually fairly spontaneously and without much thought. I thought I’d take a slightly different route.

You can separate the teams into five groups, first is the three teams who are as close as you can get to locks for the top four:

Sydney
Hawthorn
Fremantle

The rest is a little more unpredictable, and probably more competitive across a wider range.

Teams who should be competing for that last top four spot:

Geelong
North Melbourne
Richmond

Teams who could be competing for that last top four spot:

Collingwood
Essendon

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Teams who should be competing for top eight:

West Coast
Carlton
Gold Coast

Competitive teams who’ll miss out:

Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs

And the rest:

Adelaide
Brisbane
Melbourne
GWS
St Kilda

From this, here is my predicted ladder:

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1. Sydney
Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett in the same forward line is downright scary. Give them a dry there and throw Sam Reid, Mike Pyke (rotating) and Adam Goodes down there also.

Combine this with a very talented midfield and defence and you’ve got probably the most talented team on paper in the comp.

2. Hawthorn
Losing Buddy is nothing too horrible for Hawthorn – Jack Gunston and David Hale can combine to fill that gap with no problem.

Matt Suckling and Ryan Schoenmakers will be important additions to a backline that was very strong without them. If they’re at their best I don’t think there is anyone who can beat them, but I question if they can maintain a level Sydney can.

3. Fremantle
Love or loathe them, you’ve got to admire them. It will be not much new from Fremantle this year, but they do what they do so well.

Only issue I have is their tall options up forward, if Matthew Pavlich goes down, the reliance on Chris Mayne/Michael Walters/Hayden Ballantyne could be an issue.

4. Collingwood
I don’t buy into these predictions about Collingwood’s downfall due to key departures.

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Dale Thomas was barely on the paddock last year, Heath Shaw was a shadow of himself and Darren Jolly wasn’t in the best 22.

A midfield brigade of Dane Swan, Dayne Beams, Steele Sidebottom, new recruit Taylor Adams and Luke Ball, led by new skipper Scott Pendlebury, is arguably the best in the competition.

5. Geelong
Geelong’s issue this year will be consistency. They have the talent and mix of youth and age to challenge anyone, but they are a little too youth-heavy to be a consistent top four team.

Steve Johnson and Joel Selwood will need to play like they did in 2013, while Tom Hawkins and the health of Dawson Simpson/Hamish Mcintosh are crucial to Geelong’s chances.

6. Richmond
I’m not expecting a dramatic change from Richmond this year, just steady improvement.

Shaun Hampson will be very handy in providing a genuine back up ruck to Ivan Maric, while being another tall target to go after up forward.

Midfield needs to step up if any hope of making the top four and a lot of that needs to come from Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin.

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7. North Melbourne
I get the feeling the blowtorch will be on Brad Scott at times this year. Their best is obviously very good, but in the past teams with this much hype in the preseason struggle to convert (Geelong 06, Carlton 13).

The leadership group and coaching group is experienced and strong enough to still get them in the eight and potentially do a lot of damage in there.

8. Carlton
Can’t see them missing out, another year under Mick Malthouse will see a more consistent output from the blues.

Dale Thomas will provide much needed spark to a team that looked flat constantly last year.

9. Essendon
They are possible contenders for the top four but it will be more of the same from Essendon. Brilliant at times, very average at others.

10. West Coast
West Coast will show the promise they had in 2011 this year but, as with most first year coaches, won’t quite hit their strides.

Forward line is downright dangerous but not quite enough midfield/back line depth for me.

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11. Gold Coast
They could very easily get into the eight this year, but they don’t have the firepower up forward to convert on the improvement of Dion Prestia, Jaeger O’Meara etc. just yet.

12. Port Adelaide
Don’t think it will be a bad year from Port, just don’t think they’ll improve as much as the pack above them. Look out in a couple of years’ time though.

13. Western Bulldogs
Encouraging signs from the Doggies at the end of last year will continue, but bottom line just not enough talent to get the job done.

14. Adelaide
I really don’t know what to make of the Crows. They recruited like they are going after a flag this year but with Taylor Walker, Patrick Dangerfield, Brad and Matt Crouch and Daniel Talia’s best football ahead of them, one-to-two years is their best chance.

Will be an up-and-down year.

15. Melbourne
Mitch Clark, Daniel Cross and Bernie Vince will make a huge difference this year.

Clark is a genuine key forward and his presence will take the n1 defender away from Chris Dawes. Jesse Hogan is supposedly ready-made also, while Cross and Vince add much-needed midfield support to Nathan Jones. A better year but much more work to go.

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16. Brisbane
New coach coupled with an exodus of players makes grim reading. There’s talk that Jonathan Brown is barely in the best 22, and I struggle to see a forward line with the firepower to score heavily or a back line capable of containing any top 10 or 12 sides.

Midfield will save them from complete disgrace, but Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden and Pearce Hanley will need better support from Dayne Zorko and Daniel Rich to cover Simon Black’s absence.

17. GWS
Flip a coin for the bottom two, but leaned towards GWS on the basis that they will benefit largely from Heath Shaw and Josh Hunt in defence along with Shane Mumford in the ruck.

18. St Kilda
Begin to question if Ross Lyon saw this coming, players are ageing and young players aren’t quite ready.

New coach and new game plan only amplifies the problems.

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