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2014 Randwick Guineas and Canterbury Stakes: Preview and tips

Zoustar ridden by jockey Jimmy Cassidy (centre) wins the $1 million De Bortoli Golden Rose Stakes at Rosehill Gardens in 2013. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins
Expert
13th March, 2014
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Last week was Super Saturday at Flemington, and this week we move to a Superb Saturday at Royal Randwick.

Nine black type races will be on offer, including two listed races, two Group 3s, three Group 2s, and two sensational Group 1s.

Let’s get into the two main features, which are among the newest Group 1 races on our racing calendar.

The Randwick Guineas
The Guineas is the main event on the program, a $600,000 race over the most famous mile in Australia.

Of the eight winners of the race, first held in 2006, six have gone onto win subsequent Group 1 races, proving its worth as a key plank of the Sydney autumn calendar.

This is our first test of the Sydney and Melbourne form clashing this autumn, which adds another element to proceedings.

El Roca is the favourite, despite suffering a preparation that has been controversially disrupted. Of all the dreams we might have for racing, many of them explored on The Roar‘s racing page each week, surely having a standard set of industry rules covering the entire nation is the one we want the most.

Because when El Roca was scratched from the Hobartville by the Sydney stewards two weeks ago, Victorian racing rules would have allowed him to start if the race was in Melbourne.

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The Hobartville was always going to be a key form reference for the Randwick Guineas, and El Roca walked all over the Hobartville winner, Dissident, when they met first-up in the Eskimo Prince.

Last start El Roca took on the older horses, and was only just beaten by the flying Terravista over 1300m.

Hugh Bowman will have his work cut out from barrier 14, and is a chance to get posted wide if looking to take up El Roca’s usual position near the lead. The Hobartville set-back and wide gate will ensure you get very backable odds if you like him.

Dissident is an honest three-year-old, but I was ready to peg him as below the top tier before his Hobartville grinding win.

Despite the amazing Golden Rose second to Zoustar still being on his resume, I’ve got my doubts about him against the very best. Wouldn’t mind having my name in the owner’s list though!

Atlante, a Group 1 Guineas winner in New Zealand, had his chance to run down Dissident, but just ran out of fitness first-up, being a run behind the winner, and may have been battling on the slops as well.

He should get the run of the race, which will keep him in it for a long way, and is obviously a gifted individual.

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Savvy Nature is a talented gelding who ran on kindly in the Hobartville, which was his first exposure to a soft track. He’s already a dual Group race winner, plus has a Group 1 placing to his name, and the last time we saw him at the mile was in the Spring Stakes, which he won easily at Newcastle.

He was second-up on that occasion, as he is here, coming off a very similar first-up run.

He strikes me in a similar manner that Criterion did for the Australian Guineas, and will be among the strongest at the end of the race.

Romantic Touch appears to be just going at the moment, yet to recapture the form from his two-year-old days. He had two runs at around the mile back then, for an eight length win over Savvy Nature and a Group 1 win over Zoustar, which isn’t bad for a 20-1 shot on Saturday.

The classic racing phrase, ‘take on trust’ comes to mind.

Woodbine was the best of the rest in the Hobartville, is an improving type and has Teronado form. Koroibete and Hooked were also-rans and would need to find many lengths on what we’ve seen so far to be any sort of threat.

Criterion heads those from the Australian Guineas, owner of a lovely second from that race. The form is under a little question mark now, since Shamus Award and Thunder Fantasy flopped in the Australian Cup, but it could still be alright for three-year-old level.

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The question is whether he’s ready for 2000m now with only two weeks between runs so, while he’s a major player, it won’t surprise to see him a bit one-paced for some of these once they straighten.

Eurozone couldn’t run a strong 1600m in the same race, despite having every possible chance racing on the tail of Shamus Award. Maybe the Cox Plate winner broke him, and he could be a threat with more of a smother, saved for a run late. He’s drawn beautifully again, so may do so, but the jury is out.

Teronado produced another of his patented eye-catching runs from the tail of the field in the Guineas. He’s shown no signs of versatility, so needs every break to go his way, and barrier one won’t be a help unless he can find some miracle inside runs and save a couple of lengths on the corner.

He’s certainly a nice miler in the making though, and should again cash a cheque for connections.

Bull Point stamped himself as a key autumn three-year-old with his effortless first-up win in Melbourne, before starting favourite and turning in an even performance behind Moment of Change at weight-for-age in the Futurity.

He’s another that will attempt to lob just behind the speed, and doesn’t know how to run a bad race.

Having Damien Oliver in the saddle is no bad thing either, and the Ollie/Waterhouse combination have combined for the odd Group 1 in recent times!

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Show The World brings some more Kiwi x-factor into the race, first-up on a Derby campaign. Tupac Amaru, also on a Derby campaign, and Singing Flame are surely making up the numbers.

Bull Point, Eurozone, Savvy Nature, Dissident et al, have all beaten each other home at some point this season, so it’s hard to get an accurate line on them.

Who has improved? Who has gone backwards?

El Roca might be the best of the lot of them, and the market will reflect that thinking, but he has difficulties to overcome.

Selections: 1. Savvy Nature 2. El Roca 3. Bull Point 4. Atlante

Canterbury Stakes
Last year’s Canterbury Stakes was a high-class affair, with Pierro defeating More Joyous to give Gai Waterhouse the quinella.

Finishing at the tail of the field that day were Happy Trails and Moment of Change, who have had a handy 12 months since!

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This year’s edition looks to contain a deep and versatile field, with many quality horses boasting differing formlines.

While three of the ten horses in the field are first-up, they have nine different last start races between them. The wight-for-age conditions will give us a great indication of where each horse stands.

Racing fans have been waiting for the return of Zoustar, and tomorrow that day arrives.

His three-year-old spring campaign finished with three straight wins, two of them, the Golden Rose and Coolmore Stud Stakes, at Group 1 level. His class is undeniable and, in all likelihood, so will be his sprint.

First-up straight to 1300m might provide some question marks for punters and every jockey will be looking to box Jim Cassidy in from gate three.

One of Zoustar’s only two losses was first-up last campaign, but he did run enormous that day. He’s the deserved favourite, but fans of the horse are getting what might be a nice price at around $2.80 or so.

The other three-year-old in the field is second favourite, Not Listenin’tome. He ran second to Zoustar in that Coolmore, so his talent has been confirmed against the best, and based on his four length first-up stakes win at Caulfield, he’s improved immeasurably.

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We don’t know if he’s improved enough to make up the couple of lengths to Zoustar, but he will be in front of him in the run and has race fitness on his side. A huge threat.

Two mares are next in the market, and will be the only other horses to jump at single figure odds.

Red Tracer is arguably the best mare in the land, and clearly the testing material in that class, but now gets the chance to prove her bona fides in open company.

Always racing at Group level, she’s finished in the quinella in nine of her last ten starts, including two Group 1 wins in that time. She was dominant first-up carrying 59kgs on her favoured slow track, and whatever beats her will have earned their win.

Appearance has returned in hot form after an indifferent spring, beating the boys twice, including last week’s Chipping Norton winner Boban, comfortably each time.

She’ll be zooming late with her explosive turn of foot, alongside Zoustar, but will probably be coming from last after drawing the widest barrier, and another concern is the drop back in distance she’ll have to contend with.

Don’t forget, she didn’t run in the Chipping Norton after taking time to recover from her last-start win.

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Streama produced a plain, but serviceable, first-up run over 1200m, and will struggle to beat all of these over 1300m. She’ll be at her best further into her prep when she gets to a mile, as she builds towards the Doncaster and even the Queen Elizabeth.

Speediness has spent some time in the wilderness in his career, but his last 12 months have seen him finally put it all together consistently. He’s more of a ‘set weights and penalties’ kind of horse than a genuine weight-for-age performer, and seems to find himself caught between Group levels.

There’s always going to be one or two better than him in a Group 1 he’s contesting, but he’s a handy place chance at odds in this sort of affair, and the 1300-1500m range is his go.

Rain Affair will be hoping slow conditions are the order of the day, where his most of his successes have come.

This campaign he has looked a shadow of the street-fighting, front-runner that we know best, and if he fails abysmally again with the cut out of the ground tomorrow, his future as a racehorse needs some serious thought. We don’t want to see him run into the ground like Hay List was.

There’s going be no competition for the lead, so hopefully he can put a few lengths on them at the top of the straight and make his opponents produce their best to get past him.

He still might finish fifth or sixth, but we need to see merit in it. Does his 11-length trial win between runs suggest he can produce the goods?

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Toydini could easily have a Group 1 win or two to his name, but was just unable to get the best of Boban when they met in the spring. He’s an out-and-out miler, and bloody good one, so his first-up run can be given a pass.

He has been known to improve sharply second-up but I daresay not enough to be legitimate winning chance.

Sacred Falls disappointed some in the spring while still producing some nice performances, but last year’s Doncaster winner has since shown that big-race Group 1 wins on heavy tracks do not make a superstar.

He can produce a run fresh without surprising, but is another that should find the unusual 1300m a bit too short.

My Kingdom of Fife looked like he might have been anything over the middle distances before injury struck, and all are hoping he can get through this campaign safely. The last time he raced, my wife was five months pregnant and now we have a two-year-old son.

He’s three from three at Randwick, and if he makes it four from four then we’ll have seen the best training effort of all time, in the entire universe.

Rain Affair will run them along, with Red Tracer, Speediness and Not Listenin’tome bringing up the rest and fighting for the box seat position. Zoustar and Appearance will be firing the last shots as they come steaming home.

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Selections: 1. Not Listenin’tome 2. Red Tracer 3. Zoustar 4. Speediness

Looking elsewhere, we get Buffering v Snitzerland v Bel Sprinter v Sessions with a deep supporting cast in the Challenge Stakes over 1000m, while the ‘B’ brigade of Golden Slipper aspirants will stake their claims in the Skyline and Sweet Embrace to kick start the day.

Victoria does provincial racing better than most, and Bendigo gets its chance to shine with a nice card, including a Guineas for the three-year-olds and a Bracelet for the mares, along with the Golden Mile and something for the stayers too.

Hazard in the Golden Bracelet might be the best each-way bet anywhere in the country, bringing placings behind Knoydart (Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket third place-getter!) and Bonaria (dual Group winner this campaign) to the race.

It’s days like these I feel sorry for people who don’t follow racing, so let’s enjoy the best the sport has to offer!

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