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With Ireland going into the final round of the 2014 Six Nations on top of the table with a plus-81 points differential, 49 points ahead of England, they know that a win against France should see them claim the trophy they haven’t held since 2009.
England’s equation is simple – they must beat Italy and beat them very well.
Amazingly, France are still also in the hunt but with a points differential of only plus-3, they are 29 points behind England so to win the title they must beat Ireland by a good margin and rely on Italy beating England.
The timing of the matches is also critical – England play first so if they beat Italy they’ll jump to the top of the table and set a target for Ireland and France to chase.
The outcome of the middle match on Saturday between Wales and Scotland will have no bearing on who wins the championship which will no doubt rankle Welsh fans.
Then France host Ireland in the final match. If England have beaten Italy earlier in the day, France will not only have to beat Ireland but beat them by a margin of more than 30 points. Realistically, French hopes will be extinguished if England win.
If Italy beat England then the winner of the championship will be the winner of the final match. If not, Ireland will know what margin they have to beat France by to see off England.
Any team that goes into a match chasing a win by a certain number of points can stumble by focussing too much on the score rather than just playing the match.
The best way England can apply this sort of pressure to Ireland is to beat Italy by a margin of more than 60. This would leave Ireland needing to beat France by 12 points or more.
Should England fail to beat Italy by more than 49 points then Ireland will know that a win by any margin is good enough. That would be a huge advantage for them.
Italy v England
With England needing a massive win over Italy, they will have to play a very attacking game so this could be a superb match to watch.
England were very good against Wales and with Ireland have shown they are the two best teams this year. How they must regret that last ten minutes in Paris against France in round one.
Italy were competitive against Ireland for most of the first half but then had no answers when Ireland went up several gears.
I expect England will be in top gear right from the start of this match so I can’t see Italy being able to stop them.
I’ve tipped against England in the first four rounds (not because I hate England as a few have claimed) but I’m going to tip them in this match.
I did receive an e-mail this week from an Englishman asking me to tip Ireland on the basis that I might jinx them so it won’t please him that I’ve tipped England this week.
Do I think England can win by more than 49 points? It’s possible but that is a huge margin at this level of rugby so it will be some performance if they do.
Wales v Scotland
Wales will not be happy that no matter the outcome of their final match of the tournament they are already out of contention.
Their performance in the loss against England was limp as was their earlier performance against Ireland.
Does that say they are a team in decline or that their game plan has become stale? You could make a good argument for answering yes to both of those questions.
I expect Wales will be looking to make a statement in this match to show the world they shouldn’t be written off just yet.
Despite people calling for Scotland’s involvement to be reviewed earlier in the tournament, they will finish above Italy again this year and should have beaten France in the last round.
However, those plucky performances can’t mask the fact that they are justifiably just hanging on to tenth place in the IRB rankings and lack depth.
I’m tipping Wales by more than 10 points.
France v Ireland
Is there any preview article written about a match involving France that doesn’t refer to not knowing which French team will turn up?
That question may be even more relevant this week. If England beat Italy by a good margin, say 20 points which is entirely feasible, France will know that they have to beat Ireland by 49 points or more. If England really turn it on against Italy that equation could look even worse for the French.
Even if France played brilliantly and Ireland poorly I couldn’t see that happening and realistically, no matter how positive the French may try to be, they would know that too. In those circumstances hope may be lost for the French before this match even commences and that would negatively impact their performance.
As I said earlier, Ireland will have the benefit of knowing what they must do in this match before they take the field. Will a win suffice or do they need more?
Even if England were to beat Italy by 60 points and set Ireland the task of beating France by more than 12 points, I think the Irish would still enter the match with confidence.
I’m sure Joe Schmidt and his coaching team will reinforce the need for the Irish players to focus on their own performances and their match rather than what England have done. But no matter how much you try to ignore the outside factors, you can’t and that creates pressure.
If England don’t beat Italy by more than 49 points the danger for Ireland is that they relax knowing a win will be enough. In those circumstances they would also know that they are firm favourites and that can create pressure as well.
Throw in the unpredictability of France, even if they don’t think they can win the tournament, and it will be a tricky match for Ireland.
I’m tipping Ireland to win and that any victory will be enough.
This tip is based on my view of the position both teams will find themselves in as they run on to the field but I admit I’m also hoping Brian O’Driscoll leaves the stage with a win and the trophy.
He’s the best centre I’ve ever seen play the game and one of the best players I’ve seen – he deserves to go out on a high.