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If you want to qualify for the play-offs in Super Rugby you need to win at least 10 matches and your running average of log points needs to be a tad over three per match.
In previous seasons, no team winning nine or less matches has managed to qualify for the play offs and at end of season, your log points need to be closer to 50 than 45.
After five rounds of the 2014 season, there are early indications as to the teams who have made a strong start to this year’s competition.
South African conference
It will take a special effort from any of the other South African franchises to overtake the Sharks this year.
Unbeaten and looking well-coached by Jake White, it seems a foregone conclusion the Sharks will win the South Africa conference.
The Bulls have issues. When they dominate up front, their execution is spot-on and when they have momentum they look near unstoppable, but they have been inconsistent.
Teams with big, strong packs have been their Achilles heel in the recent past and that causes their predictable game plan to fall short.
The Lions may be the surprise package this year, however, how much longer can the metronome Marnitz Boshoff kick them to victory?
Twice this season they were outscored by two tries, and both times Boshoff made up the deficit with his goal kicking. His kicking stats for the season stands at 29/31 and five drop goals.
The Stormers are in serious trouble; no attacking nous, poor execution, unforced errors that reminds one of The Three Stooges and an apparent lack of coaching ideas.
Oh how the mighty have fallen – the Cheetahs are without doubt the disappointment of the season. The lack of commitment on defence that was seemingly sorted last year is back in spades.
Australian conference
Currently the most exciting conference to follow without doubt, so much so that between the five teams they have collected 7/18 possible try bonus points.
This is also currently the conference that is the least predictable, it seems to be a case of rock, paper, scissors when looking at the top three – Reds beat Brumbies, Waratahs beat Reds, Brumbies beat Waratahs.
Reds have a perceived weakness in the pack, they were dominated by the Sharks and Waratahs. Will Genia has been inconsistent and this have affected the manner in whichn Quade Cooper can employ his backline.
However, their line out has functioned well, Cooper’s tactical kicking has been good and when Genia sharpened his service to Cooper the Reds’ backline have shown to be dangerous.
The Waratahs have the ‘Folau effect’ but a pressure game can negate that effect to a large extent, and although the Waratahs are looking very good once the momentum is there, they have an issue with their line outs.
Their tactical kicking is another cause of concern. It was shown this weekend that even the best attacking teams need field position and a solid exit strategy.
The Brumbies have sound foundations, their pack is looking very strong, they manage to dominate breakdowns, their line out is running well and their defensive system looks good.
Perhaps, one might argue, the structures of Jake White are still there and they are working on their attacking flair.
The Rebels and Force have both shown a willingness to run the ball, but their inconsistent performances of yesteryear still seem prevalent. They have the ability to shock bigger teams, but it is doubtful they will end anywhere near the top of the Australian conference.
New Zealand conference
The sleeping giant is likely the best description of the New Zealand conference this year.
Even the Chiefs, although unbeaten, seem to be only waking now and the rest of the New Zealand teams are still in a slumber. We should all be wary once this giant fully awakens and begins its charge.
The defending champions have shown defence is key in winning tough matches, their attacking nous is hard to stop and Aaron Cruden is the incumbent flyhalf for the All Blacks.
He truly has an uncanny ability to control matches, be it kicking for territory, putting sneaky little grubbers through or finding space for his chasers to run onto.
The Crusaders still have a solid pack, but their side-to-side attack looks less inventive and incisive this season.
Could it be that Todd Blackadder and his charges are stagnating? Is it time for some new ideas or is it merely a personnel issue this early in the season?
The Hurricanes and Blues both struggle at the set phases, and it is incredible when you think what these teams could do with the talented backs they possess if they had more cohesion and better platforms to work from.
The Highlanders have the better forward pack, but there seems to be something lacking; whether it is more creative attack and flair players, or discipline and focus, it is difficult to say.
It is early days yet, much can change from now to the final round of matches, but if I was a betting man, I would consider the Sharks, Bulls, Chiefs, Crusaders, Waratahs, Brumbies and Reds to be in the running.
So who wants to play rock (Brumbies), paper (Reds), scissors (Waratahs)?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.